48 minutes | Aug 13, 2020

David Rothschild: Predictions vs. Polling (#23)

David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver’s ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up Electoral College and Florida trading ideas.  Follow Rothschild on Twitter @DavMicRot TRENDS Does Kamala Harris Move the Needle? Does Nate Silver Deserve Some Needling? TRADES Betting Biden Better No, Joe Isn’t Gonna Go House Rules Florida (C’mon) Man THE LUCKBOX LOCKBOX Hint: Name That ATM (HRC)   The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine.  Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questions, follow us and give feedback and guest ideas: thepoliticaltrade.com More Free Money?  Open your Predictit account with our promo code and we'll match the first $20 you invest: predictit.org/promo/TPT20 Follow us… TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag INSTAGRAM: @tptpodcast @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp
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