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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TAGcni All that matters today is what the Fed did and said. And what they did was raise rates a quarter point. And what they said was that “financial conditions have tightened” (well, there you go). And he said that these tighter financial conditions and tougher lending criteria from banks will “factor into their policy decisions” (phew). As for a First Republic deal – the bank whose depositors basically now have a backstop from the FDIC but has now seen enough deposit withdrawals to warrant a deal with a bigger back to shore up its capital strength – the issue appears now to be what government backstop or assistance will be a part of any deal (something I predicted last week … any buyer in a position of strength knows the issue is systemic risk, and therefore has the leverage to ask for some sweeteners to come with the deal). Some of the items being discussed (per reports) are liability protection and/or relief on capital requirements and/or other regulatory relaxations. Keep your popcorn handy. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JvZllP I imagine it is quite likely that the bond market has seen its highs in bond yields for quite some time to come (across the whole yield curve). The 10-year sits at 3.5%, down from 4.21%, and I will be surprised if it gets back up to that level. Likewise, the short end sits at 4.5%, down from over 5%, and I don’t see it getting back there, either. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but I don’t think I am here. China has bought $88 billion in oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia since the war began last year, up over $30 billion from the year prior and causing Russia to beat out Saudi Arabia as China’s leading supplier. The government is evaluating how they can increase FDIC deposit insurance levels above $250,000 without getting Congressional approval. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LBs0Z8 For the second week in a row, I get to do hours upon hours of reading and writing over the weekend, only to have Sunday interventions make obsolete much of that reading and writing. Keep reading to understand more … There is no question that the major story in markets right now is sort of the only story, and that is the day-to-day perceptions of the banking system at home and abroad. Last week the market was down a hundred points Monday but had been up +350 in the middle of the day. Then Tuesday was up +350 before Wednesday was down -280 (but had been down -700 points). Thursday was then up +375 points, and Friday was down -380 points. So all in, from beginning to end, the market was dead flat on the week. Yep. Dead flat but with substantial movement each and every day. And then, today, we were up +383 points, basically the exact same level as Friday’s downturn. THIS is the type of market where people have a chance to act truly, truly foolish. It is also a prime-time example of directionless volatility. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42ftwpL In this week’s Dividend Cafe, I again decided not to limit myself to one topic but to take the recent avalanche of questions we have received and go through them all, one by one, creating quite a “multi-topic” Dividend Cafe for you. I think you will find the questions intriguing, and I hope you will find the answers satisfying. From questions about student loans to the Fed to depositor insurance to how to select a wealth advisor, we have it all this week (and then some). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JHE8Wf Brian Szytel here with you today reviewing continued market volatility with today’s 700-point swing, albeit today to the upside, surrounding ongoing stress in the financial sector, along with a significant list of new economic data points. I have a full agenda in today’s video podcast link below with updates on employment, manufacturing, interest rates, and a deep dive into what is unfolding in the banking sector and what it may mean for you. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3leNG2y This is Trevor Cummings, and I am sitting in for David Bahnsen to bring you DC Today. There is a common idiom in the English language, “Wait until the dust settles.” This adage encourages one to be patient until they have more clarity. Investors crave clarity, and when things become too foggy or dusty, investor anxieties skyrocket. These anxieties surface as market volatility, which you are currently enduring. At this stage, everyone is still sifting through the rubble of SVB to separate substance from hysteria. I want to encourage you to read David Bahnsen’s special Silicon Valley Bank Dividend Cafe, which was published Monday. Our intent here at The Bahnsen Group is to keep you informed and guide you through the dust. David will even be writing a Dividend Cafe piece on Friday dedicated to the plethora of questions we’ve received this week – you won’t want to miss that. With that said, let’s talk about what happened around the markets today… TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Td4dAJ ASK DAVID “What do all these things happening with Silicon Valley Bank and the FDIC mean for small and regional banks? Are those banks going to have to pay even more in deposit rates to lure and retain banking customers?” ~ Dave That is certainly a concern, yes – that even with FDIC protection and solvency issues addressed, the smaller banks may be forced to really punish their own margins with punitive levels of interest paid on deposits. I personally believe the next few days are critical to getting a feel for what the aftermath will mean for regional and small banks. I expect there may be a better answer for “super regionals” and a worse answer for “community/small” banks, but both customer sentiment and policy ramifications are still in the TBD phase. Moody’s did put six good-sized regional banks on review for a credit rating downgrade, citing the level of uninsured deposits and mark-to-market losses in their asset portfolios. But at this time, there has been no need for these banks to sell hold-to-maturity assets. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3mQzT2N There is really only one story in financial markets right now, and that is the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and various ramifications from that. We sent a special Dividend Cafe on all of that and more this morning!!! If all you do is read one thing, read that. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3mK2RRS Today we are going to talk about something no one else seems to be talking about, and that may be one of the worst things imaginable for financial media ratings if it ever gets out. It is not controversial. It is, to me, somewhat obvious. But it is highly counter-cultural, and as I say, for many, it is highly problematic. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/3YGi43n A big market sell-off again now means the market has gone up 1,000 points and down 1,000 points in the last nine days. And Happy Anniversary (14 years ago today) to the generational market bottom in 2009 out of the Great Financial Crisis! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's post: https://bahnsen.co/3SXObdT Key Economic Points of the Day: ADP reported 242,000 private sector jobs created in February. The correlation between the ADP and BLS numbers each month has not been very tight for a while now. Job openings came in at 10.82 million for February, 300k higher than expected. It had been 11.2 million last month. The trade deficit came in at $68.3 billion in February, a little less than expected. Total trade was up +7.6% versus last January ($18.1bn), indicating ongoing improvement in supply chain conditions versus a year ago. ASK DAVID “I noticed Sen. Elizabeth Warren grilling Jerome Powell yesterday, and her main point (that the primary causes of inflation and the only tool the fed has to fight inflation are disconnected) sounded familiar. Would you have ever guessed that you would find common ground with a left-wing Senator from Massachusetts? She did have to get price gouging theory in there though …” ~ Jack B. I’ve said this countless times – that though the progressive’s motives are to pin the blame for inflation on “capitalist greed” (the most preposterous theory imaginable), the right’s agenda here will leave them regretting it when economic opponents are the ones making the case that, no, people having jobs is NOT inflationary. Inflation is a highly toxic issue politically, no doubt, and parties not in power will make hay of it when they can just out of political reality. But the need of the hour is economic growth, and for the right to join the fray in alleging that growth and jobs are inflationary is absurd. For Elizabeth Warren to be the one making the case that the Fed is about to do more harm than good is heartbreaking to this movement conservative. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3mrIiJz Key Economic Point of the Day: Futures market completely flip-flopped – went to a 70% chance of a half-point hike at the next meeting, with a 30% chance of a quarter-point hike (had been 30% and 70% just yesterday) ASK DAVID “What do your most recent observations in the city tell you about the state of the New York City office market?” ~ Anthony The fact of the matter is, anyone walking around the 40’s or 50’s (streets) on Tuesday through Thursday can tell offices are not merely 50% occupied in midtown – it is closer to 85% on those days. Where the vacancies lie are in bad and antiquated “old” products. The better quality class B and certainly class A office product is full 3-4 days a week, and tenants are renewing leases. A 10% vacancy rate that has gone to 20% inclusive of ALL NYC office products is really not that bad considering everything that has transpired. If you asked any office landlord 30 months ago if they would be content with the scenario they face now by February 2023, they would have killed for it. The leverage landlords are carrying is case by case, too, but if you all are asking whether or not foot traffic is back, New York City is utterly packed. There are moving parts, no doubt, and a new and class-A product is in the best position. But once again, the death of office, the death of going to work, and yes, the death of New York City, as painfully misdiagnosed. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I have written about excessive indebtedness many times in these Dividend Cafe pages, including a piece nearly two years ago that I think has held up quite well.  Lately I have written about Japanification, which is not quite the same topic (though there is certainly heavy overlap). I have long believed in treating the disease, not the symptoms, and I didn't even go to medical school (in fact, if I had, it seems these days I'd be less likely to believe that).  That may be an overused cliche, but it has utility when it comes to how we think about our personal lives, our health, our finances, and so many other things.  And when it comes to the issue of Japanification I think the overall subject will be served to look with more granularity at the nature of the excessive debt to which I refer. This is a seriously action-packed Dividend Cafe, and if you do not agree after reading it you are entitled to a full refund of your subscription price. Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe ... Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3KMCDrK Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ZCSvkX So the market followed its robust January returns with a -4% drop in the Dow for February and a -2.5% drop in the S&P 500, and the bond market dropped -2.7% on the month (though almost every index we track across stock and bond markets was still positive on the year through February, just much less so than previously). A few comments on today’s action here Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3KW53PY ASK DAVID “In your recent random walk in the Dividend Cafe you mentioned ‘full expensing of all capital expenditures’ as part of your prescription for avoiding Japanification. Will you please explain why this is necessary and what impact it will have?” ~ Luke L. I think one of the major tenets of Japanification is “low/slow/no growth,” and therefore, an obvious antidote (tautologically) is “growth.” I think the testimony of history is a clear and particularly recent experience that in a period of low capital expenditures, which are needed to improve productivity, which is needed to generate growth, removing disincentives to such productive investment is key. Forcing businesses to make large (and risky) investments NOW, but only to deduct that expense over time, is a disincentive. Immediate cash expensing incentivizes capex, which drives productivity, which drives growth. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is Trevor Cummings filling in for David Bahsen as he is traveling back to our New York office today. First and foremost, I want to encourage you to check out David’s Dividend Cafe published on Friday. David covered a myriad of topics in a potpourri fashion, and all of these tidbits are what bubble up from actual clients and readers’ questions. Having attended countless number of David’s speaking engagements, the concluding Q&A is always my favorite; the Dividend Cafe this week reminds me a lot of one of those Q&A sessions. Alright, without further ado, let’s jump right into what was happening in Markets today as we close out the month of February. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Well, I am back from my family’s little jaunt through the Bahamian Seas and am grateful to Brian Szytel for filling in with the DC Today for a few days last week. I hope you will find today’s old-school long-form DC Today informative. I will bring you the DC Today from New York on Wednesday and Thursday this week, as well as Dividend Cafe on Friday. Trevor will handle DC Today duties tomorrow as I fly after the market close to the world’s greatest city. Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3ksS6me Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As I am out of the country these last few days with my family on a brief trip as the kids enjoy a week out of school, returning today, I am doing this week’s Dividend Cafe “old school” – which is to say, jumping around topic to topic and answering a handful of questions along the way. I love the “single topic” Dividend Cafe writings each week, but every now and then, it is fun to mix it up a little, especially from a top-secret overseas destination! Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel here with you this up day in markets albeit in a choppy 500 point trading range of a session this holiday shortened week. I have some important updated economic numbers, along with comments on currency and real estate you will want to be sure to check out. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Coming off the worst day of the year yesterday we get some market recovery and a little volatility relief with rates coming off yesterdays highs. Today is a more Fed heavy podcast with meeting minutes released which I discuss along with some economic takeaways on the day Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com