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Become a premium subscriber and get this podcast a day or more before the general public! No ads or announcements either! Contrarian.Supercast.Tech   With the Dow Industrial Average hitting 30,000 on the day of this recording, revisiting historical booms and busts feels particularly timely. Jamie Catherwood, the author of InvestorAmnesia.com and a self-proclaimed financial history nerd, is a perfect guide to this discussion. We discuss booms in treasure hunting, bicycles, railroads, breweries, and of course tulips (which it turns out was greatly exaggerated. The guest debunks this). Content Segments (Spotify users can click on time stamp to link to the section directly) What epoch in financial history is perhaps most apt in light of today's period? (3:38); How long do these cycles typically last? (12:40); Bubbles in transportation technology: bicycles, railroads (twice), now electrical vehicles (16:25); "Tulip mania," often cited as the "mother of all financial bubbles" was in reality nowhere near as crazy as commonly believed (18:40 ); What are common elements that prick bubbles? (27:08); The role of central banks and the money supply in the bursting of bubbles (29:59); Background on the guest (40:36); How he started his website on financial bubble history (45:44) Contrarian investors through history (51:59); Epilogue: bonus content for supporters of Tottenham Hotspur only (57:05). More Information on the Guest Website: InvestorAmnesia.com Twitter: @InvestorAmnesia Financial History Course (premium subscribers get 10% off the price).

Become a premium member and receive episodes earlier and without ads or announcements! Sign up here for just $9/month or $99/year. Theron De Ris of London-based Eschler Asset Management joins the podcast to discuss why now may be an optimal time to invest in shares of precious metals companies and energy concerns. One of De Ris' favorite stocks -- and primary portfolio holdings -- is discussed at some length in the second half of the program. Content Segments (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) Why Eschler Asset Management is bullish on precious metals (3:14) and why the pullback could be a buying opportunity for gold equities in particular (8:02); The picture for energy and why it is reminiscent of the precious metals industry circa 2015 (9:03); Demand from emerging markets, especially China, should persist despite economic difficulties (11:44), nor should renewable energy crimp demand in the short term (13:08); Background on the guest and how he got started waiting tables in Frankfurt, Germany (18:03) and eventually started his own fund (23:41); His process for finding ideas and picking stocks (26:34); How royalty and streaming companies work. Most are focused on precious metals, including Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE:FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM), and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) (28:00); The favorite stock and one of the fund's main holdings: EMX Royalties (NYSE:EMX) (30:07). Additional Information on the Guest: Website: EschlerAsset.com; Twitter: @DeRist2011; YouTube channel: Not intended as investment advice.

Become a premium member and receive episodes earlier and without ads or announcements! Sign up here for just $9.99/month or $99/year. Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the state of the economy on the eve of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.  In Colbert's view, the economic recovery is "square root" shaped, with a quick bounce from the bottom followed by "the lazy L that comes after the easy V-part." Politically, he anticipates a Biden victory and return of the Senate to democratic control. This will eventually lead to a higher tax rate for corporations, which together with a coronavirus vaccine will cause a rotation into value stocks. (Spotify users can access the segment directly by clicking on the corresponding timestamp) The current state of the U.S. economy on the eve of the presidential election: "a deep and severe contraction with a pretty significant bounceback that is entirely V-shaped -- at the moment." (3:51); The real unemployment rate is about 10% according to Colbert's calculation, almost exactly the same level that it was at the height of the Great Recession (5:21); The "final stimulus bridge" is still lacking to get us to where a vaccine can enable a full reopening of the economy (8:18); What if there are more serious lockdowns in Europe? (11:32); The election: A Biden victory and "blue wave" will return democrat control of the Senate (13:27); From an investing perspective, the biggest change (and opportunity) will be taking advantage of a rotation into value stocks (16:50); This because democrats will increase corporate taxes, which will disproportionately hurt growth companies (18:59); Worst-case scenarios include the deficit (24:56); Employment may not grow very quickly. An 8% unemployment rate may still be a year or more away (27:48); The firm's asset allocation for 2021 and how that has changed since January (29:11). Read Colbert's latest presentation here. Not intended as investment advice.

Become a premium member and receive episodes earlier and without ads or announcements! Sign up here for just $8/month or $88/year (these prices increase Nov. 1) Christian Putz is an Austrian-born hedge fund manager currently based in London. His fund has outperformed benchmarks this year during one of the more unpredictable periods in recent memory. Behind this success is an understanding and appreciation of the big-picture macro environment. Only when that is taken into account does the fund look at individual stocks. Right now the macro picture is mostly benign with the U.S. election looming. Many sectors remain strong. There are buying opportunities brewing, especially in the oil and gas industry. Content (Spotify users can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) The macro picture versus individual stocks and where things stand right now (7:28); Economically, things look rather benign. Buying opportunities may abound in the energy industry especially (13:09); Risks "are more to the upside," with steepening yield curve. This may bode well for the financial sector (16:05); Recent months have seen a rebound in copper prices. That may be overdone. There is a bear market case to be made post election (18:38); Background on the guest (22:39); The fund's current portfolio allocation (32:10); The benefits of utilities right now (33:42); For more information on the guest: Website: ARRinvestments.com LinkedIn Not intended as investment advice.

Support this podcast by signing up to become a premium subscriber here. Get access to podcast episodes days before they are released to the general public and without any ads or announcements. James Altucher needs to introduction. For several decades he has been an outspoken contrarian on matters ranging from investing to politics, society, entrepreneurialism, and all points in between. We planned to limit this conversation to investing. That didn't happen. Instead Altucher spoke on a wide range of issues -- including investing -- and introduced some items that he hadn't discussed before publicly. If you do want to skip to the investing content, it starts at (20:26). Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly) We start with a discussion of Altucher's recent controversial articles, about the death of New York and why he's not voting in next month's election (4:21); "Why should I have to choose between two different crime families?" (8:57); Still, there should be a good turnout this year. Altucher does not expect anybody to follow his lead in not voting -- and is not suggesting they do, anyway (12:57); Who he thinks is going to win the election, and why (19:41); Views on markets at present (20:26); The worst-case scenario for the election and beyond (24:23); Muni bonds and closed-end funds: sound boring, but there are opportunities (27:32); Additional background on the guest. What were the major turning points in his life and his career? (33:18); Warren Buffett, the OG of investing (39:45); What are the growth areas he is excited about today? (42:14); What to look for, and what to avoid, when it comes to "fallen angels" (46:24); His upcoming projects, including a new company that facilitates video and audio streaming, and podcasting (50:35); Altucher remains in NYC, despite what media might have reported (53:15) For More Information on the Guest: Website: JamesAltucher.com Twitter: @JAltucher LinkedIn

This episode was recorded Sept. 30 and released to premium subscribers on Oct. 1. Become a premium subscriber for just $8/month or $88/year. David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his vision of a "parabolic melt-up" in risk assets that will presage the next market crash. What we've seen since late March was not the real melt-up, Hunter says. Most of the gains are still ahead, in fact the coming months should see the final (and most dramatic) period of the rally. Then things get ugly. Content (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly): What we saw in September was a "fake out sell off". We will regroup and see the real meltup later this year (3:25); The target for the S&P 500 is still as high as 4,500. The NASDAQ could go as high as 15,000. The final move into the secular top should begin this month and will continue through the election and quite possibly beyond (4:15); A new stimulus package by the U.S. Congress may be the catalyst that extinguishes all the bearishness currently seen in the market (6:11); The election and its aftermath surely pose a risk. What about the coronavirus? (8:49); The Fed could resume stimulus measures as well. Indeed, Powell & Co may have already started (15:11); After the melt-up there will be a crash that will be very ugly indeed (17:35); A Fed policy misstep will likely be the cause (19:04); No, a Biden administration will not likely lead to a new Fed chairman. The crash will unleash additional stimulus and loosening measures by the Fed -- another overreaction -- in the second half of 2021 that will eventually lead to inflation, though not until about 2023 (23:43); "This is a call people are going to want to lock me up for...I think you will see potentially a full retrace of the last 40 years of declining inflation and interest rates" (28:45); This inflation cycle will result in commodity prices "you can't imagine:" $10,000 gold, $15 copper, $300/barrel oil (29:52); Ultimately you may see "a collapse of the entire system" that will make the 1930s "look like a picnic." (38:14) Find out about David Hunter's newsletter by following him on Twitter @DaveHContrarian and sending him a direct message. Not intended as investment advice.

Become a premium subscriber today for just $8 per month or $88/year. Get early access to podcasts, bonus episodes, transcripts, locked groups on our Slack channel and Discord server, and a whole lot more: Contrarian.Supercast.Tech Liz Hall, well known on the Twittersphere as @LizQuidity, joins the podcast to discuss some of her methods for locating the next generation of growth stocks. Hall doesn't have an investment process per se. She lets investment ideas find her by exploring niche interest and going down "rabbit holes" on YouTube and Reddit. Content (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) How to let the investment idea "come to you" by locating niche areas of interest at their source (2:38); One example from earlier this year: Games Workshop Group (GMWKF), publisher of the Warhammer game (4:34); Some more on her research methods (10:48); What led her to Nintendo (13:16); Background on the guest (17:22); Brief discussion of Tesla (TSLA) and Nikola (NKLA) (23:32). For more on Hall's research process, visit her website LizardBrain.Substack.com Not intended as investment advice.

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics joins the podcast to discuss his view that economic recovery in the U.S. is on firmer footing than widely believed. Content (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) Downside risks do exist. Flu season is approaching but the data is painting a more encouraging picture (3:37); The top leading indicators are predicting a business cycle rise in 2021, led by the consumer (6:17); Employment is a lagging indicator. Other metrics are more telling about the economy's future prospects (9:53); The election and how that might impact things (11:50); Background on the guest (18:31); The prospects for commercial real estate. Is the office doomed? (30:34) Current opportunities: Look to the defense sector and export-intensive industries in the U.S. (34:44); For more information on the guest: Twitter: @achausovsky Website: ITReconomics.com Reminder: Become a premium subscriber for just $8/month. Details here

Value Stock Geek, well known on the Twittersphere as @ValueStockGeek, joins the podcast to discuss his concept of the "weird portfolio." This portfolio allocates to gold and real estate as well as stocks and Treasuries. The guest also revisits his prediction from his first visit to the podcast last year, when he said retail stocks were undervalued. The paper explaining this concept in more detail can be read in its entirety here. Content Segments (Spotify users can link to the segment by clicking on the timestamp): Background on constructing the "weird portfolio" (3:04); How exactly is the portfolio allocated? (5:14); Is gold still an effective disaster hedge? (8:55); The equity portion of the portfolio (14:02); What makes up the small-cap value portion? (17:04); Is there really enough diversification offered by international equities over their U.S. counterparts? (19:03); How the real estate allocation is accomplished (21:05); Revisiting the contrarian calls from last summer (27:17). Become A Premium Member Early access to podcast episodes -- released as much as a full day before it hits iTunes and other podcast software; Podcast transcripts, available immediately after episodes are published; Access to locked groups in the new Slack channel, featuring: Direct interaction with the host and selected guests; Exclusive documents from hedge funds and others; Bonus episodes; Discounts on Virtual Events and subscriptions from our partners; NEW: 25% off a ValueWalk Premium subscription A Contrarian Investor Podcast mug, as a thank-you for signing up. All this and more. Sign up now for just $8/month or $88/year: Contrarian.Supercast.Tech  

University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, "Radical Uncertainty" and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19. Content (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp): The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20); It is "almost impossible to overstate" the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02); Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20); What's an investor to do with this information? (10:15); Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren't the same thing (12:53); Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24); Where does real estate fit? (25:25); Background on the guest (30:28); What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37); Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04). More Information on the Guest Website: JohnKay.com Twitter: @ProfJohnKay Book: Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future (also available on Amazon). Not intended as investment advice.

Genna Lozovsky of Sandglass Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss investing in emerging markets distressed debt and credit. Sandglass Capital invests in sovereign and corporate credit across global EM, typically seeking to be a liquidity provider "at prices that we think significantly underestimate the recovery potential of those assets." Highlights (Spotify users can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp): Short background on emerging markets and how we arrived at the current situation (2:03); What to look for in terms of entry points for investments (4:53); The fund's involvement in Argentina (10:00); Where is Sandglass looking to invest now? (15:05); Background on the guest (20:32); Investing in local currency versus USD-denominated paper (22:55); What kind of information does a fund like this look for? (26:07); What's the typical holding period for these investments? (29:05); Additional Information on the Guest Website: SandglassCapital.com; LinkedIn page; Not intended as investment advice.

Eric Chung, chief investment officer of Lighthaven Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his view that math, financial models, and algorithms are insufficient when it comes to investing. "The widespread use of math in the investment management industry, while it can be helpful ... I think there's been some pretty significant overreliance on these things," says Chung. Content Highlights (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp): The example of Long Term Capital Management and how it got him to take notice (2:41); Not enough has been written about the fallacy risk parity (13:59); Background on the guest (24:36); Lighthaven Capital's investing strategy (28:30); Chung's decision to de-risk the portfolio in Q1 (31:49); The "external, exogenous factors" that go into his risk models (34:59); A Joseph Biden presidency and what it could mean for markets (37:39); What is the market getting wrong right now? (39:05); Contrarian opinion on the potential Biden administration's stance toward China (46:42); Reasons for optimism (49:49). More Information on the Guest: Website: LightHavenCapital.com Video about CV-19 that was trending on LinkedIn:    Twitter: @LighthavenFund Eric Chung on LinkedIn YouTube channel   Not intended as investment advice.

The evolution of media has led to a "disconnect" between the reality of coronavirus and public perception of the pandemic, according to Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research. "We are on the precipice of COVID almost being over, or functionally as a major impact on society, mortality, etc.," says Abeyta. This, along with unprecedented liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve, will lead to a melt-up in global financial markets. Highlights (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) The disconnect in popular political and economic analysis and the actual situation with COVID in the U.S. (4:38); Look at the numbers in aggregate; they are clearly declining (8:52); The war on COVID is almost over and the coronavirus could effectively be over "in six weeks" (12:52); What does all this mean for investors? Look at gyms and movie theaters (16:07); A simple options strategy to play the coming melt-up that looks a lot like 1999 (18:07); Three contrarian views and why the coming melt-up will be the best investing and trading environment in a generation (24:48); Background on the guest (27:33); How do you get your ideas? (39:28); The "V-word" and why it doesn't matter and doesn't work (41:10); The case for Match.com (42:48); "Shorting sucks" (45:04); Asset management is a religion (49:21); Short discussion of risks (51:12). More Information on the Guest Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com; Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta. Not intended as investment advice.  

Siddarth Singhai of Ironhold Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views of semiconductor manufacturers and auto parts suppliers. He also shares his bullish views on industry sectors in his native India. Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly): Singhai's look at the macro situation with COVID (3:27); The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry (5:59); Long-term prospects are "fantastic," and the macroeconomic environment should allow for the opportunity to build positions (8:06); Electrical cars will provide a tailwind to auto manufacturers (10:40); Background on the guest (13:52); The most profitable industry in India (17:19); Favorite ideas in semiconductor suppliers (27:04); Favorite ideas in automotive suppliers (32:14). More Information on the Guest: Ironhold Capital is a value-based hedge fund in New York focused on leveraging both the Indian and U.S. markets. Its priority is to preserve capital, which is accomplished by buying high quality businesses with no leverage for cheap, followed by layers of risk management. Website: IronholdCapital.com YouTube Channel: Leaders in Business and Investing Podcast: via Spotify and Apple Podcasts Not intended as investment advice.

David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners joins the podcast to discuss his expectation of a "L-shaped" economic recovery and corresponding sideways market activity in the years to come.  There are still opportunities for investors. Here Neuhauser is bullish on certain companies tied to hard assets like oil and copper. Content (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly) The "best days" of the market rally have likely passed (3:00), expect more rangebound markets in the short run (4:24); What this period of low growth means for markets in the medium term (8:16); What it means to be a contrarian today (9:39); Background on the guest (12:11); How he spends his time in terms of activist situations (17:40); More specifics on opportunities in energy markets. Hint: it's not in shale (20:31); Concerns about the demand picture? (24:09); There will be a "massive reset" in markets and fundamentals will take hold, causing "further grinding" to the downside, especially amid high-priced securities (26:45); Neuhauser's process for finding opportunities (27:46). For more information on the guest: Website: LivermorePartners.com Twitter: @LivermoreOps Video of presentation at Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference No. 2 Not intended as investment advice.

Jonathan Boyar, principal at Boyar Value Group, joins the podcast to discuss the merits of investing in the public equity of professional sports teams. Boyar is specifically bullish on the Liberty Braves Group (NASDAQ: BATRA), a tracking stock that consists of the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball team and real estate development.  Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly): Sports teams as investments and two that have the guest's attention at present (3:34); Liberty Braves discussion (5:50); Why now? "You're at a point of maximum pessimism," with MLB specifically (8:24); The opportunity brought by sports gambling (14:06); Background on the guest (16:38); The Boyar Value Group's investing style (19:15) and recent purchase of Twitter (20:50); The makeup of the firm's portfolio and how it deviates from the S&P 500 (24:22); The opportunity with Hanesbrands (26:40). For more information on the guest: Website: BoyarValueGroup.com Twitter: @BoyarValue Video of presentation at Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference No. 2 Not intended as investment advice.

Hedge fund portfolio manager Chris Nicholson joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on volatility, interest rates, and other markets. Forecasting these assets has become increasingly problematic in recent years, but there are a few thing Nicholson looks to in an effort to identify opportunities for arbitrage. Content (Spotify listeners can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp): U.S. equity prices are determined largely by two axes (3:40); Inflation expectations have been, well, inflated. This speaks for the relative value of certain bonds (7:03); What drives inflation anyway? (11:38); Where to look in currencies (19:05); Nicholson's Number One recommendation for investors: take the cheap borrow. Where to put it is the question (21:40); Sometimes being contrarian is not the smart move. This may be one of those times, at least in FX markets (23:38); China and the yuan versus the Japanese yen (29:24); Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan (33:06); The portfolio manager's concern about a second wave of COVID (35:40); Other issues that could be catalysts in 2020 (40:39); How to trade these views (46:18); For more information on the guest: Twitter: @2Christopher LinkedIn: ChrisNicholson Not intended as investment advice

Gabriel Grego of Quintessential Capital joins the podcast to discuss his short activist strategy. Grego finds three or four "high conviction" ideas to trade a year. His process is exhaustive but straightforward, though few managers have the stomach to replicate it. The reasons for this are discussed in the second half of the podcast. Content (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment) How it all starts. Finding the right target is crucial. Grego's focus on "extreme corporate catastrophic situations" (1:39); Some of the typical "red flags" to look for (3:43); Trendy industries are often clusters for fraudulent behavior. COVID-19 is the most recent example (6:01); Narrowing the target list and creating a thesis (10:37); The final step: "boots on the ground" research (16:46); Background on the guest (21:57); Activist shorting is "scary stuff" (25:38); More terrifying than being a paratrooper? (27:29); Background on QCM's fund and current exposure (30:28); How QCM has dealt with the events of 2020, including a rare (and successful) attempt to time markets in March (34:05); Chinese companies traded in the U.S. look "very very interesting," though Chinese fraud is "a different beast" (42:14). More Information on the Guest: Website: QCMFunds.com Twitter: @QCMFunds Email tips to info@qcmfunds.com Watch Grego's presentation on Akazoo at the Inaugural Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference Not intended as investment advice.

Vitaliy Katsenelson of ContrarianEdge.com joins the podcast to discuss his current views on markets and his recent thesis on automakers. That industry has been disrupted by the entrance of Tesla. Other industries face a similar fate and Katsenelson discusses some of the winners and losers. Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to reach the segment directly) The automotive industry faces an "unstoppable" tsunami and Tesla is at the forefront (1:58) Tesla as "iphone"-type disrupter (7:27) What other companies are exciting? Recent investment Twitter (14:12) Value versus growth: Knowledge is cumulative (16:07) Background on the guest (22:08) Views on coronavirus (28:39) Makeup of the portfolio and one notable recent addition (33:58) For More Information on the Guest: Website: ContrarianEdge.com and its audio equivalent, Investor.fm Twitter: @VitaliyK Investment service IMA "Why The Survival Of Traditional Carmakers Is Far From Certain": link to paper Not intended as investment advice.

Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book "The Myth of Chinese Capitalism." In Roberts' view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China's middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country's population, remains well below the middle class -- and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies. The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their "pivot" to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world. Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly) The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39) The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35) The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China's "factory to the world" model (9:21) Authorities' options are very limited (10:45) Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China's middle class are gone (13:10) Background on the gust (20:15) What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14) Brief discussion of Hong Kong: "Don't think that the protests are over." (30:22) For More Information on the Guest: Website: DexterRoberts.com Twitter: @DTiffRoberts The Myth of Chinese Capitalism: The Worker, the Factory, and the Future of the World (Amazon page)