35 minutes | Feb 21, 2021

79 - Michael Story - Superforecasting [Public Limited Version]

For more on Michael visit: https://michaelwstory.com/ Follow Michael on Twitter @MWStory Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015) Tom Chivers, The AI Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality and the Race to Save the World (2019) Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't (2012) James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few (2005) Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974) Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ Timestamps 03:43 The process of superforecasting with the example of predicting how long it would take to develop a coronavirus vaccine 12:50 The wisdom of crowds 18:04 The inside vs. outside view, anchors and base rates 23:15 The foxes versus the hedgehogs 29:39 The conjunction fallacy 37:15 Accountability, falsifiability, Brier scores 46:54 Loss of institutional credibility: a problem or an opportunity? 01:02:05 The importance of A/B testing 01:06:36 Back of the envelope (Fermi) calculations 01:12:11 Psychological characteristics of superforecasters, caring about being wrong
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