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What does historian and journalist Anne Applebaum mean by “the 21st century is, so far, a story of the reverse”? Whether we like it or not, global politics today is defined by confrontation—which could lead to conflict—between autocracies and democracies. However, unlike the great geopolitical divisions of the past, the new dividing lines are not ideological or ethnic or religious or economic. Rather, the two camps are defined by how their leaders come to and maintain themselves in power. The autocracies seem to have figured out they have much in common, including fear of democracy, and translate that understanding into effective mutual support. Ironically, the democracies spend considerable energy criticizing each other, emphasizing their different approaches to issues like immigration, climate, trade, etc. Not surprisingly, as historian and journalist Anne Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic in November: “The Bad Guys are Winning.” As she put it, "If the 20th century was the story of slow, uneven progress toward the victory of liberal democracy over other ideologies—communism, fascism, virulent nationalism—the 21st century is, so far, a story of the reverse.” With Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border, Belarus dumping Middle East migrants in Poland and Lithuania, China threatening Taiwan (as well as countries like Lithuania and Australia who dare to disagree with Beijing) these are potentially life and death issues. Listen as Applebaum discusses how this new world (dis) order might evolve.

Ronald Deibert is fighting back against digital predators to protect citizens and civil society. We live in an always on, hyperconnected, digital society. Almost every aspect of our lives now has a virtual element, which means we leave endless trails of data to be hoovered up for good and for evil. Unfortunately, some of the results include cybercrime, illegal spying, harassment, cyber intimidation and identity theft. It’s bad enough when these activities are aimed at you or me; much worse when they target dissidents, crusading journalists, citizens who are pushing back against government oppression. That’s where Ronald Deibert and the Citizen Lab at Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto come in. Ron and his colleagues are in the business of fighting back, using cutting-edge technologies to protect citizens and civil society from digital predators. Listen as Ron, a finalist for the 2021 Tallberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize, explains how Citizen Lab does the voodoo they do so well.

Listen as Jamila Afghani talks about escaping the Taliban, and what she expects for her country. The Taliban's surge to power in Afghanistan is one of those events that will have repercussions for years to come. Geopolitical, strategic, military, perhaps religious, but most importantly, humanitarian. We all watched in horror as hundreds of thousands of women, men, and children tried to flee what seems likely to be a re-imposition of the Taliban's brutal pre-modern style of ruling. Jamila Afghani, our guest this week, succeeded in getting out with her family. Jamila is an educator, a leader, and an activist. Her work to elevate the rights and improve the education of women and girls is based on her studies of Islamic law, which she believes is typically misinterpreted to give them second-class status. Jamila is also a past winner of the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize. Listen as Jamila talks about escaping the Taliban, and what she expects for her country.

Is China’s leadership acting out of strength or weakness? Is war possible? Is war avoidable? Under President Xi Jinping, China has shown a growing willingness to act outside the accepted geopolitical, economic and even diplomatic global framework and practices. Indeed, Beijing’s actions suggest a rejection of the post-war system in favor of one that is not just rejiggered to accommodate China’s growing superpowers, but that is dominated by it. The latest data points? President Xi did not show up at COP 26; reports from Glasgow suggest the Chinese have been playing a spoiling role in the climate talks; tensions over Taiwan continue to rise; Chinese rhetoric aimed at the United States, Australia, and Europe is increasingly harsh. Not a day goes by without new reports of China asserting what it sees as its prerogatives as the soon-to-be largest economy in the world. What’s going on? Is China’s leadership acting out of strength or weakness? Is Xi merely probing the West’s weaknesses or has he decided the time is ripe to push hard? Is war possible? Is war avoidable? Australian Kevin Rudd has spent a considerable part of his life thinking about, working on, and negotiating with China — as a diplomat, twice as his country's prime minister, and currently as president of the Asia Society. Arguably no other western leader knows China better. Listen as he assesses where China is today, and where it wants to be tomorrow.

Listen to Pashtana Durrani, an Afghan activist and educator and Christian Ntizimira, who champions palliative care in Rwanda, discuss leadership. Great leaders may or may not be born that way, but their skills and abilities certainly evolve and mature over time. For years the Tälberg Foundation has nurtured leaders who are relatively early on their journeys through a variety of programs. This year we took another step in our own leadership journey by establishing an Emerging Leader category for the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize. The idea is simple: identify and honor leaders who have already had impact but who are still growing and evolving. It’s not about age, but about impact and potential. The 2021 jury selected two emerging leaders as the initial recipients of this honor. Pashtana Durrani is an Afghan activist and educator working to create digital learning opportunities, especially for girls, in her ravaged country. Christian Ntizimira is a Rwandan medical doctor who champions palliative care in central Africa, in the belief that dignified death is a human right (and a communal obligation). Listen as two Tällberg jurors—Shahidul Alam, a Bangladeshi photographer and human rights activist and Gouri Mirpuri, a Singaporean social entrepreneur—discuss leadership with Pashtana and Christian.

Listen to two amazing leaders: Asha de Vos, Sri Lanka and Tero Mustonen, Finland. The only hope for a world awash in troubles is that leaders with vision, universal values, and determination will seize the moment. Not just in politics, but across sectors and across countries. Unfortunately, nothing like that is yet happening. But just bemoaning the lack of leaders accomplishes nothing. That’s why we established and have nurtured the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize. In 2021 our global jury selected two amazing leaders: Asha de Vos, a Sri Lankan marine biologist who has established a world class marine conservation research and education institution in her country, and Tero Mustonen, a Finnish climate scientist, fisherman and community leader, who blends the wisdom of local and Indigenous peoples with the hard truths of scientists to define new approaches to climate change. Listen as two Tällberg jurors—David Kiernan, a leading American litigator and Marthe Reinette, of the THNK School of Creative Leadership in the Netherlands—discuss leadership, challenges and hope with Asha and Tero

Listen as Ambassador Dina Kawar parses the possibilities, good and bad, in the Middle East Like almost everything else on the global scene, the Middle East of today is significantly different than the region that has been such a locus of conflict over the past 50 years. Key actors seem to be refocusing their political and diplomatic efforts from war to peace and are beginning to build a new network of relationships that transcend old rivalries. Some of this reflects a growing awareness that local leaders, not those in Washington, Moscow, or elsewhere, are likely better equipped—and certainly better motivated—to govern in the interest of the people who actually live in the region. In this context, Jordan, under the leadership of King Abdullah II, is playing a major role. Although—or, perhaps, because—the country lacks water and other resources and has been badly impacted by the Syrian civil war over the past decade, Jordanian diplomacy has kicked into high gear in this search for a new, positive future. Our guest this week, Ambassador Dina Kawar is both an observer and participant in this transformation. She is currently Jordan's ambassador to the United States, having previously served as her country's ambassador to the United Nations, France, Portugal, the Vatican and UNESCO. Listen as she parses the possibilities, good and bad, of this rapidly changing region. What do you think?

Oceanographers Sylvia Earle from the US and Asha de Vos from Sri Lanka talkes about water, the oceans, threats, and solutions. Do you care about the future of the oceans? Are you worried that pollution, acidification and warming of the seas could transform the planet as much as, maybe more than, what’s happening to the rainforests? Seventy percent of the earth is covered by water. If we want a livable planet, we need livable oceans. Can we save the oceans? If failure is not an option—and it should not be—who needs to do what? In a recent Tällberg webinar, oceanographers Sylvia Earle from the United States and Asha de Vos from Sri Lanka talked about water, the oceans, threats, and solutions. Both are explorers, educators, and activists and both are winners of the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize.

Ronald Deibert is fighting back against digital predators to protect citizens and civil society. We live in an always on, hyperconnected, digital society. Almost every aspect of our lives now has a virtual element, which means we leave endless trails of data to be hoovered up for good and for evil. Unfortunately, some of the results include cybercrime, illegal spying, harassment, cyber intimidation and identity theft. It’s bad enough when these activities are aimed at you or me; much worse when they target dissidents, crusading journalists, citizens who are pushing back against government oppression. That’s where Ronald Deibert and the Citizen Lab at Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto come in. Ron and his colleagues are in the business of fighting back, using cutting-edge technologies to protect citizens and civil society from digital predators. Listen as Ron, a finalist for the 2021 Tallberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize, explains how Citizen Lab does the voodoo they do so well.

Listen to Tero Mustonen, one of 2021 Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize winners. Rapidly accelerating climate change is uniquely modern — but climate change is not. The planet has warmed and cooled in the past, even during mankind’s time. What can we learn from those events that might help us cope with the extremes that are our present and future? Can indigenous people who understand nature differently than most of us teach us how to cope with today’s terrifying challenges? Our guest on this week’s New Thinking for a New World podcast, Tero Mustonen, is a climate scholar who combines indigenous knowledge with academic research. He is also a leader of the SnowChange Cooperative that works with indigenous people and climate issues throughout the Arctic, and currently the head of his town of Selkie in North Karelia, Finland. Listen to his insights on how to promote positive change on a damaged planet.

Is China’s leadership acting out of strength or weakness? Is war possible? Is war avoidable? Under President Xi Jinping, China has shown a growing willingness to act outside the accepted geopolitical, economic and even diplomatic global framework and practices. Indeed, Beijing’s actions suggest a rejection of the post war system in favor of one that is not just rejiggered to accommodate China’s growing superpowers, but that is dominated by it. The latest data points? President Xi did not show up at COP 26; reports from Glasgow suggest the Chinese have been playing a spoiling role in the climate talks; tensions over Taiwan continue to rise; Chinese rhetoric aimed at the United States, Australia, and Europe is increasingly harsh. Not a day goes by without new reports of China asserting what it sees as its prerogatives as the soon-to-be largest economy in the world. What’s going on? Is China’s leadership acting out of strength or weakness? Is Xi merely probing the West’s weaknesses or has he decided the time is ripe to push hard? Is war possible? Is war avoidable? Australian Kevin Rudd has spent a considerable part of his life thinking about, working on, and negotiating with China — as a diplomat, twice as his country's prime minister, and currently as president of the Asia Society. Arguably no other western leader knows China better. Listen as he assesses where China is today, and where it wants to be tomorrow.

Do we have the technologies in hand to decarbonize economies in ways that are compatible with how people want to live? Politicians from around the world are in Glasgow for the 26th United Nations Conference on Climate Change. That the disastrous impacts of climate change are increasingly evident is testimony to many things, not least the practical shortcomings of the first 25 UN meetings. Why are we where we are? The science is clear; politics, much less so. But do we know what to do? Do we have the technologies in hand to decarbonize economies in ways that are compatible with how people want to live? Can we do this? Saul Griffith, Australian inventor and engineer—and a past winner of the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize—insists that the answer is emphatically yes. We don’t need technological miracles, he says; we have all the technology we need to transform the United States from laggard to leader in the effort to change the arc of the warming climate. And, if the United States can do it, everyone can.

What is actually being done about climate change? Searching for "Climate change" on Google produces 1.1 billion results in less than a second. It seems almost everyone everywhere is talking about it, including the great and the good who are gathered in Glasgow at the UN's 26th Climate Change Conference. But what is actually being done? The gap between rhetoric and action is critical. Action comes in two flavors: top-down policies that aim to decarbonize and bottom-up behaviors of ordinary people, communities, and companies. In many ways, it’s the latter where real change occurs. Santiago Gowland, CEO of the Rainforest Alliance has spent years working with businesses, NGOs and citizens around the world to mitigate some of the biggest impacts of climate change. Listen as he discusses urgent efforts to reverse the degradation of rainforests and to create truly sustainable supply chains that are good for people as well as for the planet.

If art is a window on the soul of a nation, what does ours look like? Who do we think we are in the sense of identity? We live in a time of profound change. For anyone who doubted how fundamentally our world is changing, the global pandemic was a catastrophic proof point. Even as we in the West become more conscious of inequalities that have been part of our societal fabric for a long time, we're becoming less sure of our identities. Even as technology breaks down borders and barriers, many of us are retreating to our tribes, becoming ever more local and isolated rather than global and engaged. If art is a window on the soul of a nation, what does ours look like? Who do we, defined loosely as the West, think we are in the sense of identity? What's our mood? Of course, these are questions without answers or, at least, unique answers. In this episode of New Thinking for a New World, Shirin Neshat, an acclaimed Iranian visual artist who has lived and worked in the United States for decades and Jonathan Burnham, president and publisher of the Harper Division at HarperCollins, discuss our evolving zeitgeist.

Listen as Thomas Anker Christensen and Daniel Martinez-Valle talk about the need and opportunity for urgent, positive creative climate activism in the wake of the pandemic. For the first time in 75 years, the whole world is focused on the same problem and, in the process, mobilizing unprecedented political will, state authority and fiscal resources as well as relying on scientists to build evidence-based policies. How do we transfer all of that energy to addressing even the larger, more deadly challenge of climate change? We invited Tomas Anker Christensen, Denmark’s Climate Ambassador, and Daniel Martinez-Valle, Chief Executive Officer of Orbia, a Mexico based global company, to discuss both the need and opportunity for urgent, positive creative climate activism in the wake of the pandemic. Listen as they discuss the need to develop effective partnerships between government and corporations, to find a better balance between globalism and nationalism, and to innovate solutions that assure the transformation to a low carbon economy creates, rather than destroys, jobs, growth and economic opportunity.

Listen as Jamila Afghani talks about escaping the Taliban, and what she expects for her country. The Taliban's surge to power in Afghanistan is one of those events that will have repercussions for years to come. Geopolitical, strategic, military, perhaps religious, but most importantly, humanitarian. We all watched in horror as hundreds of thousands of women, men, and children tried to flee what seems likely to be a re-imposition of the Taliban's brutal pre-modern style of ruling. Jamila Afghani, our guest this week, succeeded in getting out with her family. Jamila is an educator, a leader, and an activist. Her work to elevate the rights and improve the education of women and girls is based on her studies of Islamic law, which she believes is typically misinterpreted to give them second-class status. Jamila is also a past winner of the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize. Listen as Jamila talks about escaping the Taliban, and what she expects for her country.

Tero Mustonen is a climate scholar who combines indigenous knowledge with academic research. Listen to his insights on how to promote positive change on a damaged planet. Rapidly accelerating climate change is uniquely modern — but climate change is not. The planet has warmed and cooled in the past, even during mankind’s time. What can we learn from those events that might help us cope with the extremes that are our present and future? Can indigenous people who understand nature differently than most of us teach us how to cope with today’s terrifying challenges? Our guest on this week’s New Thinking for a New World podcast, Tero Mustonen, is a climate scholar who combines indigenous knowledge with academic research. He is also a leader of the SnowChange Cooperative that works with indigenous people and climate issues throughout the Arctic, and currently the head of his town of Selkie in North Karelia, Finland. Listen to his insights on how to promote positive change on a damaged planet.

Why do many Latins seemingly embrace “strong man” rather than democratic solutions to their social, economic, and political problems? Over the years Latin America has seen more than its share of coups, dictators, autocrats, and stolen elections. Even today, well-functioning democracies—meaning free and fair elections, independent media, strong and independent institutions, and active civil society—are the exceptions rather than the rule for too much of the region. Why hasn't liberal democracy developed deeper roots in Latin America? Why are institutions under pressure in so many places? Why do many Latins seemingly embrace “strong man” rather than democratic solutions to their social, economic, and political problems? Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and a journalist who has covered the region for twenty years, has some answers—but also lots of worries.

What kind of Middle East do Iran’s leaders, including president Ebrahim Raisi, want and what are they prepared to do to get it? The recent Taliban victory in Afghanistan and the abrupt American withdrawal are only the most dramatic evidence of a profound realignment in the politics of the Middle East.For months, former enemies have been talking to each other; the Israelis are no longer pariahs in at least some of the region; military confrontation seems to have taken a back seat—in rhetoric and, to an extent, in fact—to economic cooperation. Iran sits at the center of this emerging new reality. Rapprochement among Arabs and peace with Israel is one thing if it is aimed at a united front against Iran, but quite another if it is about finding new ways to work with Iran on common objectives. That really would be New Thinking for a New World. How are these developments seen in Iran? What kind of Middle East do the leaders of that country, including the newly elected president Ebrahim Raisi, want and what are they prepared to do to get it? Ambassador Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Middle East security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University and former chief of Iran's National Security Foreign Relations Committee, is as well positioned as anyone to answer those questions. Listen to this week's New Thinking for a New World podcast as he describes his view of what happens when the United States loses a war.

Or will he damage the democratic institutions so badly that Brazil’s future stability could be at risk? Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro recently said, “I have three alternatives for my future: being arrested, killed, or victory.” To say that is an unusual approach for someone seeking re-election is an understatement, but Bolsonaro is a member in good standing of the Would-Be Autocrats Club who achieved power through the ballot box. Members include Donald Trump, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Daniel Ortega, maybe Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico. Brazil’s elections are in October 2022, and Bolsonaro has already indicated he would try to use the military to stay in power, insisted that the vote will be rigged against him, and is leaning heavily on the courts to give him what he wants. Can Bolsonaro bully his way into reelection? Will the country’s democratic institutions be so badly damaged by him that Brazil’s future stability could be at risk? Most importantly, what do the Brazilian people actually want? Sergio Amaral has a long career as a top Brazilian diplomat, presidential policy advisor, and consultant to some of São Paulo’s global companies. He has worked closely with presidents and other politicians and has an insider's perspective on how his country actually works. Listen as he discusses the future of Brazilian democracy on this week's New Thinking for a New World podcast.