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Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom
71 minutes | 2 days ago
#43: Diego Parrilla On Appreciating The Opportunity Set In ‘Antibubbles’
It was just over two years ago Diego Parrilla first joined me on the podcast to discuss his framework for analyzing financial bubbles and what he calls, "antibubbles." You may have noticed that the topic of bubbles and antibubbles has come up in both of my recent interviews with James Davolos, on the topic of inflation, and Adam Rozencwaig, on the mania in green energy stocks. Considering how relevant Diego's framework is to the current market environment and how dramatically the macro backdrop has changed since we last spoke, I thought it would be an opportune time to have him back for a follow up conversation. In this episode, Diego shares his views on the misconceptions underpinning all sorts of asset bubbles at present and how a paradigm shift in inflation threatens to play the role of pin to each of them. He also discusses why he believes cryptocurrencies are, in fact, a bubble and how they have created another opportunity in what he sees as one of the oldest and most enduring of antibubbles: gold. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com
58 minutes | a month ago
#42: Adam Rozencwajg On The Speculative Mania In Green Energy Stocks
Back in October of last year, I had the pleasure of discussing the "generational opportunity in energy stocks" with Leigh Goehring. At the time, he made a very compelling investment case for the energy sector and, in just the five months since then, it has nearly doubled in value. Leigh and his firm still believe energy offers compelling value but to truly appreciate it, it helps to also understand the related bubbles in both renewables and electric vehicles. In this conversation, Leigh's partner, Adam Rozencwajg, shares his views on the mania in these so-called green energy stocks, outlining why renewables and EVs are not the panacea for climate change investors believe them to be and why, ironically, the best way to profit from the transition to green energy may be in the very stocks ESG investors are shunning today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com
66 minutes | 2 months ago
#41: James Davolos On Protecting Yourself Against A Paradigm Shift In Inflation
Perhaps the biggest debate in the markets today is regarding the prospect of inflation. Will the massive fiscal stimulus and money printing of the past year or so, paired with shifting trends in global trade and demographics, result in a secular shift in the disinflationary paradigm we have seen for the past 40 years? To try to answer this question and to better understand how to protect one's finances should inflation rear its ugly head again, I reached out to James Davolos, co-portfolio manager of the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL). In this conversation, James shares his framework for approaching the issue of inflation. He also discusses the merits of not only bringing a value-based equity focus to the problem but also of taking an asset-light approach to the process. We also tackle the risks to the broader equity market posed by all of this. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
65 minutes | 2 months ago
#40: Grant Williams On Focusing On What's Important
Since starting his newsletter roughly a decade ago and then founding RealVision a few years later, Grant Williams has established himself as one of the preeminent creators and curators of financial wisdom in the world. His keen yet conversational interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in the financial field have inspired investors of every ilk all around the globe and his monthly writings are widely considered invaluable. In this conversation, Grant discusses why and how he recently decided to shift the focus of his business in a more meaningful direction. He also shares what he has learned from his experiences in picking the brains of the greatest investors alive and how it shapes his own thinking today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
83 minutes | 3 months ago
#39: John Hussman On Navigating One Of The Most Overextended Stock Markets Of All Time
At just seventeen years old, John Hussman's introduction to the world of finance was a job hand drawing charts for an investment adviser who liked his handwriting. From that point on, he was hooked on markets. After receiving his PhD in Economics from Stanford in 1992, he went on to found Hussman Strategic Advisers and has been managing equity portfolios ever since. In this episode, John discusses how he developed his "value-conscious, historically-informed, full-cycle" investment discipline over the past 40 years and how he is implementing it today to navigate one of the most "overvalued, overbought and overbullish" stock markets of all time. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
61 minutes | 3 months ago
#38: Danielle DiMartino Booth On The Future Of The Federal Reserve
After a successful career on Wall Street, Danielle DiMartino Booth spent years as special adviser to Richard Fisher while he was head of the Dallas Fed. In her role, she provided an invaluable, markets-based perspective to one of the most independent-thinkers to have served in a leadership position at the Federal Reserve. What's more, she did so during one of the most tumultuous periods in the central bank's history: The Great Financial Crisis. In this interview, Danielle discusses the evolution of the Fed through that period and how the policies developed and implemented then have played a role in everything from inequality and social unrest to asset bubbles and inflation. She also lays out several of the potential outcomes facing investors and citizens alike as the result of the fiscal dominance and monetization of the debt we are seeing today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
62 minutes | 5 months ago
#37: Keith McCullough On The Power Of Betting On Yourself
At first blush, Keith McCullough may come off as just another brash and cocksure trader. Dig a bit deeper, though, and you'll find a calculating iconoclast driven by a deep desire to both continually improve as an investor and, ultimately, change Wall Street for the better. After starting in a job running buy and sell tickets, Keith worked his way up to running a portfolio and eventually to founding his own hedge fund. Today, he runs Hedgeye, a research service established with the goal of giving individual investors a look behind the curtain of a major macro hedge fund environment. In this conversation, Keith discusses how he developed his four quadrant macro framework that informs all of his investing decisions and how he uses it today. He also reveals how volatility can be used as a buy or sell signal and how getting fired taught him the greatest life lesson of all: to bet on himself. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
68 minutes | 5 months ago
#36: Peter Atwater On The Coming Age Of 'Screwtiny'
There are very few truly unique thinkers in the world and almost none of them regularly train their gaze on Wall Street. Peter Atwater is one of those rare few. Whenever a major news story hits the tape, it's Peter's opinion I look to to begin to understand what it means for markets and the world because of the grounded and clear-headed insight he brings to the table. Three years ago, on this show he accurately forecasted the current "backlash era" we now find ourselves in. In this episode, he discusses where we stand in this process today. Peter also postulates how companies and markets might fare amidst the coming "age of screwtiny." For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
60 minutes | 7 months ago
#35: Leigh Goehring On The Generational Opportunity In Energy Stocks Today
You could say that natural resources run in Leigh Goering's blood. The son of two oil and gas engineers, Leigh has spent nearly his entire life studying markets and investments related to commodities. Over the past 30 years, he has become one of the most brilliant and passionate analysts and money managers in the industry. In this conversation, Leigh shares the details of his macro and micro research process and how he applies them to investing in natural resource stocks. He also details the case for a coming energy crisis and why energy stocks present investors with a generational opportunity today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
63 minutes | 7 months ago
#34: Michael Green On Detecting The Greatest Value In Markets Today
Mike Green has been in the right place at the right time for his entire investment career and not just by way of good fortune. Mike has an uncanny knack for finding value in the markets. After jumping into the small cap value game in 1999 and taking advantage of one of the best runs for value as a factor in history he moved on to explore opportunities in hedging via derivatives in 2006, just prior to the Great Financial Crisis. Shortly thereafter, massive mispricings in the option market driven by the sudden popularity of tail hedging strategies gave him a new source for profit. Then, well prior to the volmageddon episode of early-2018, he became aware of the fragility created by the increasingly crowded short volatility trade and designed a strategy to profit from its demise. As his track record demonstrates, Mike is one of the most insightful market detectives in the world and in this conversation he reveals where he finds the greatest value in the markets today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
69 minutes | a year ago
#33: Bill Fleckenstein On Profiting From Central Bank Mistakes
It's been three years since I made the trek up to Seattle to interview celebrated short seller Bill Fleckenstein on the topics of, "Central Bankers, Financial Bubbles and White Burgundy." With a global pandemic now threatening to burst these bubbles, forcing central bankers into even more extreme monetary policies, I thought it was an opportune time to reconnect with Bill and get his thoughts on how these things are evolving and how investors might seek to profit in their midst. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
64 minutes | a year ago
#32: Christopher Cole On Appreciating Risk
Christopher Cole is one of the foremost thinkers and practitioners in the world of volatility trading. After beginning his career in Hollywood as a cinematographer, Chris took an interest in options trading. Eventually, this led to a job at Merrill Lynch where he was able to explore the subject of risk further and in a professional capacity. After personally profiting through employing his volatility strategies during the Great Financial Crisis, Chris founded Artemis Capital Management in order to offer his services to institutional and hedge fund investors. In this episode, Chris discusses his personal evolution as a trader and hedge fund manager and also shares his unique insights into portfolio construction gleaned from an extensive study of market history his firm recently conducted. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
65 minutes | a year ago
#31: Rob Arnott On Engineering A Better Index
Rob Arnott is one of the most accomplished and respected quantitative analysts in the world. He has written over 100 academic papers on everything from tactical asset allocation to value investing. In this episode, Rob discusses his evolution as an investor, from tailoring his college major in the late-1970's to best position him for a career in quantitative investing to the founding of his firm, Research Affiliates, in 2002. He also shares the details of the uniquely successful indexing strategy he developed over a decade ago to fix the major problems with the most popular form of passive investing and to improve on its long run performance. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
73 minutes | 2 years ago
#30: Meb Faber On The Future Of Investment Management
You would be hard-pressed to find anyone who has done more to educate and inform individual investors about the fundamentals of effective investing than Meb Faber. Over the past decade and longer, through books like Global Asset Allocation, Meb has taken key concepts, which Wall Street has suggested for years are too complex for individuals to understand let alone implement, and made them easily accessible for almost anyone to quickly absorb. In this conversation, Meb discusses why passive investing as we know it today is not nearly as efficient as most believe, how owning just one fund allows him to be far more effectively diversified than investors who own dozens, why the investment industry as we know it today is in terminal decline and how investors and finance professionals alike should position themselves to take advantage of its evolution in coming years. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
55 minutes | 2 years ago
#29: Louis-Vincent Gave On Staying One Step Ahead Of The Markets
When it comes to global macro investing, Louis-Vincent Gave is one of the most interesting thinkers in the world. His firm, GaveKal, puts out some of the most compelling research on Wall Street and beyond and, as CEO, Louis' unique investment process is at the heart of it. In this episode, he discusses his family tradition in both the French military and in the capital markets, how he developed his own signature investment framework and some of the key themes driving his current views on markets around the globe. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
61 minutes | 2 years ago
#28: Michael Oliver On Why Momentum Is Truth In Markets
Michael Oliver has been studying markets for over four decades but it was the 1987 stock market crash that became his "aha!" moment and converted him to what he calls "momentum structural analysis." It was his early work in the area that prepared him for that massive decline in stock prices and the success of its forecasting ability that gave him the confidence to pursue it full time. Many technical analysts like to say, "price is truth," but to Michael price can be deceiving and it's only by isolating the momentum in the market that reveals the truth about the underlying trend. In this episode, Michael shares the details of his unique research and analysis process and discusses how his foundation in political philosophy ended up leading him to it. He also reveals what it says about the current market and economic environment and how it eerily rhymes with some earlier times in his career. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
79 minutes | 2 years ago
#27: Diego Parrilla On The Perpetual Search For Extreme Optionality
Diego Parrilla has been eerily prescient in calling major turning points in a variety of markets over the past several years. Back in 2014, he published The Energy World Is Flat in which he detailed the coming crash in the price of crude oil and the various dynamics that would ensure such an outcome. Oil prices subsequently fell more than 70% over the next couple of years. In August of 2017, he published a new book titled, The Anti-Bubbles, in which he laid out the case for a rise in volatility across a number of markets. Just a few months later, the short volatility ETF complex blew up and in spectacular fashion amidst a record run higher in the VIX Index. In this interview, we delve into Diego's unique background and how it helps him to see things differently than most on Wall Street. Diego also shares the details of his research process and the original inspiration behind these investment theses. Finally, we discuss the current state of the global markets and why he believes gold is set to shine in the near future. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
70 minutes | 2 years ago
#26: Erik Townsend On The Intersection Of Distributed Ledger Technology And Global Macro Investing
Erik Townsend is unique in the investing world for his deep expertise in two seemingly disparate fields: security technology and macro investing. This rare perspective gives him extraordinary insight into the intersection of the two and how they are likely to affect global markets in the future. In his new book, Beyond Blockchain, Erik discusses these trends in great detail, covering the history of money, the rise of the dollar as the world's reserve currency and the origin and evolution of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Moreover, he imagines a future world order, not dominated by cryptocurrency, but enabled by the technology underpinning it and advanced by powerful macro trends already at work in the markets and global politics today. In this episode, Erik discusses why cryptocurrency, backed by cypherpunks and their acolytes, is doomed to fail at its primary purpose yet digital currency, backed by sovereign nations and inspired by the innovations developed by the crypto community, is destined to succeed in its place while displacing the dollar's global hegemony along with the massive implications of these developments for investors around the world. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
62 minutes | 2 years ago
#25: Jonathan Tepper On The Single Most Important Question Investors Should Be Asking Right Now
Have we entered a new era of sustainably high corporate profit margins or will they revert over time to more normal historical levels? This is the single most important question equity investors should be asking today and nobody has done more work on this topic than Jonathan Tepper. Formerly, an equity analyst at one of the most successful hedge funds on the planet, then a prop trader at one of the largest firms on Wall Street, Jonathan today runs Variant Perception, an institutional research service. He also recently published a new book, The Myth of Capitalism, his survey of the profit margin phenomenon and its consequences for investors and citizens alike. In this episode, we discuss the social and economic consequences of increased consolidation and regulatory capture in corporate America and what it means for markets going forward. Jonathan also shares the unique and tragic experiences of his formative years and how they inspired both a strong work ethic and a deep desire to make a difference. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
68 minutes | 3 years ago
#24: Fred Hickey On Trusting In Your Own Research And Experience
Fred Hickey has been writing The High Tech Strategist, a monthly investment newsletter, for over 30 years. Over that time, he has developed an intensive research process focused on the tech sector that gives him extensive familiarity with dozens of individual companies within it along with unique insight into the broader economy. In this episode, Fred discusses what his research routines look like on daily and monthly basis and how his writing discipline has helped him become a better investor. He also tells the story meeting legendary investor Sir John Templeton near the peak of the dotcom mania and what he learned from that poignant experience. In addition, we discuss how he has incorporated a macro approach into his micro-focused investment discipline and why he chooses to spend so much time in Costa Rica these days. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
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