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Sully's Two Cents
23 minutes | 2 days ago
2020 Fantasy Football Bold Takes Revisited
2020 Fantasy Football Bold Takes Revisited Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 125 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of Podcasts. In episode 125, I am going to revisit my 2020 Bold takes. The last two seasons, I have done a BOLD Takes episode for this very Podcast, and last season I decided to do a recap episode of my 2019 bold takes. It was a lot of fun. Simply put, I have no problem poking fun at myself and that episode was exactly that. Today I’ll recap my 2020 Bold takes that I brought you back in episode 88. Similar to 2019, this recap likely won’t end well for me, but if its fun and entertaining I am a happy fantasy analyst. Now, before I get into the recap, it is important to understand bold takes. In order for a take to be bold he has to be bold. Now I get that, that statement in itself a rather ridiculous one, but it needs to be said. A bold take is a take that is borderline crazy that could actually happen. Tom Brady is a top-12 QB in 2020 is an example of a take, not a bold one or a rather interesting one for that matter. Brady finished as a top-12 QB in 2019. Now if the take was Tom Brady will finish as the top scoring QB in 2020, now we are talking bold. My bold takes as I defined them are meant to be fun, they are scenarios that are a little out there–somewhat extreme, but plausible. Quarterbacks EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 20: Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants looks to pass against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at MetLife Stadium on October 20, 2019 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Bold Takes Revisited Daniel Jones will be a top 5 QB in 2020 So, when putting this bold prediction together I looked at his 2019 season. There was the good, In his 12 starts, Daniel Jones compiled a stat line of 284/459 for 3,027 yards and 24 touchdowns, and there was the bad. He averaged an interception a game and fumbled 13 times while losing 11 of them. In addition to the passing game, he ran for 279 yards and a TD in those 12 starts. His 16-game pace line in 2019 was 384/608 for 4,032 yards, 32 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and 15 lost fumbles, with 372 rushing yards and 3 scores. That stat line equals 282.48 fantasy points in a standard scoring 4 point per passing league. Aaron Rodgers was QB10 last season with 282.38 points. I also took into considerations that in 2019, Saquon Barkley missed 3 games and was a shell of his normal self until Week 17. Sterling Shepard missed 6 games, Darius Slayton 2, Golden Tate 5, and Evan Engram 8. I figured with all his weapons, especially Saquon Barkley and an improved offensive line, Jones’ turnover rate will decline dramatically, thus an increase in fantasy points. When I made this bold prediction, I failed to take into consideration that the Giants schedule to start the season was a tough one. Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco, the Rams, Dallas, Washington, and Philadelphia were their first 8 games. Jones after those 8 contests was QB26 with 11.26 fantasy points an average of 13.91/game. The remainder of the season the schedule lightened up, and Jones was QB29 from Week 9-17, averaging 13.13/game. In fairness to Jones, he only appeared in 6 games during that span due to a hamstring injury. His 13.13-point average however was 34th best. In addition to the schedule, I wasn’t banking on Saquon Barkley being injured in week 2 for the season, and I failed to realize what I initially thought about Daniel Jones when he was drafted and that is that he sucks. Josh Allen will finish outside the top 15 in 2020 Whoops. Of all the takes that I had prior to this season this is easily my worst. The way I looked at this was simple. In his first two seasons, Josh Allen had a career completion percentage of 56.3%. In his rookie season, his 52.8% completion percentage ranked dead last of the 33 QBs measured behind the likes of Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, and Blake Bortles. In 2019, his 58.8% ranked dead last once again, behind Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, and Gardner Minshew. Where Allen brought you his fantasy value was on the ground. In his first two seasons, Allen ran for a combined 1,141 yards and 17 touchdowns. Josh Allen finished 2019 as the 6th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy. In 2018, Allen rushed for 631 yards, second to only the 699 from Lamar Jackson, and he scored 8 times. In 2019, Allen was third in QB rushing behind Jackson and Kyler Murray with 544 yards, scoring 9 times. In two seasons, Allen has scored 505.62 fantasy points, 219.5 or 43% of his productivity had come from his legs. Frank Gore was stuffed from the one-yard line in 2019, 4 times. In each of those situations Allen followed with a rushing TD, If Gore had actually scored on those 4 carries, Allen would have gone from QB6 to QB12. The Bills added Stefon Diggs in the passing game and Zack Moss in the running game. Both of these additions should have meant that Allen would run less. I was adamant that regression was coming for Allen in 2020. Well regression was coming for Allen, but it was positive regression. He ran for basically the same yardage and touchdowns as he did in 2019. He ended up with 7 less carries, 89 less yards and 1 less touchdown. Where he exploded was the passing game. 111 more attempts, 125 more completions, 1455 more yards, an increase in completion percentage of 10.4%, and passing touchdowns increased by 17. He finished with 405.60 points the only player over the 400-point mark and 136.08 points ahead of where my bold prediction placed him. Running backs NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Houston Texans runs with the ball in the second half of their game at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Texans 42-36 in overtime. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Bold Takes Revisited David Johnson will finish 2020 as a top 15 RB This one wasn’t to far off. I had DJ in the top 15 based on two factors, the start to his 2019 season, and the fact he would see a ton of work in Houston. In 2019, Johnson struggled with injury, and in parts of 13 games he disappointed his fantasy managers with 141.5 PPR points and a RB37 finish. Prior to his injury in Week 6, Johnson was RB5, averaging 20.2 points per game. I figuring with health and workload this one was legit. Well in the end he was RB19, 11.80 PPR points behind #15 Ronald Jones. Johnson appeared in 12 games and averaged 12.2 PPR points a game. Had he played all 16 at that pace he would have landed at 195.20 PPR points and at RB9. Derrick Henry will finish as a RB2 in 2020 For record this one was nearly as bad as the Josh Allen take. See I have never really been a huge Derrick Henry fan. Not only did I think this bold take could happen I wanted it to happen. Once again, I had regression coming for Henry, all the Titans really. I stated that Ryan Tannehill was not the QB3 in fantasy that he played to once taking over in 2019 from Marcus Mariota. I was right. I stated that A.J. Brown was not the WR3 that he played to during that same time, I was right again, and I stated that Derrick Henry was not the RB2 that averaged 23.6 points a game. I wasn’t totally wrong, in the end, Henry was RB3 on the season averaging 20.8 PPR points/game. What he wasn’t was a RB2, not even close. He surpassed that total by 126.60 PPR points, 7.91 points per game. During the 2020 season I acquired a share of Derrick Henry and it wasn’t cheap. So, entering 2021 now that I have a share, I will only be wishing him success. Hopefully he keeps the train on the tracks without Arthur Smith running that offense Wide Receiver ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 08: Calvin Ridley #18 of the Atlanta Falcons takes the field prior to the game against the Carolina Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 8, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Bold Takes Revisited Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will both finish as a top 10 WRs and Ridley will finish higher than Julio. I really liked this one, and damn I thought it was going to happen. My favorite part of this take was this statement back in July; So, let me start this off by announcing that my annual “This is the year that Julio Jones falls off a cliff” world tour has been cancelled. For each of the past two seasons I have declared Julio Jones to be washed and all the man has done in those two seasons is compile 599.9 PPR points and average 19.35 points a game. Needless to say, the Julio side of this take is neither surprising nor bold. Well sadly Julio in 2020 he kinda fell off the cliff. He ended up as WR52 appearing in a total of 9 games. His average of 16.2 PPR points a game over the course of a full 16 games would have landed him at WR10. His injury was all that stood in the way of this beautiful bold prediction. Calvin Ridley who I was screaming form the roof tops for everyone to acquire held up his end of the bargain. Ridley finished the season as WR5, was a top-10 WR and did finish ahead of teammate Julio Jones. Amari Cooper will finish behind both Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb in 2020, and all three will be WR2s. I liked this one as well, just not as much as the Julio/Ridley take. What screwed this one up was the Dak Prescott injury. Dak went down in Week 5. Thru 5 weeks Cooper was WR8, Lamb was WR11, and Gallup was WR33, in a rather small sample size, but the bones of this beautiful bold prediction was in place. I was wrong thru 5 weeks, but it was at least interesting, and the Dallas offense through those 5 weeks was hotter than a ghost pepper and exceeding everyone’s expectations. Would it have stunned everyone if the Cowboys cooled and stopped scoring 40+ a week? Was it out of the realm of possibility that Cooper who has shown inconsistency throughout his career would regress? Was it not possible that Gallup showed us what he showed us to end 2019? You also had to figure that CeeDee Lamb wasn’t going to be a top-12 WR in his rookie season either. Well, I guess we will never know. Dak was lost for the season midway thru Week 5. Ben DiNucci, Garett Gilbert, and Anny Dalton combined to lead the Cowboys the rest of the way. In weeks 6-17, Cooper was WR22, Lamb WR35, and Gallup WR42. Dak Prescott is important to the Dallas Cowboys and even more important to fantasy managers. In the end this wasn’t close, Amari Cooper is still the WR1 in Dallas and likely will be for the foreseeable future. Don’t sleep on Lamb or Gallup going forward however, this bold prediction might just get a reboot entering 2021. Tight Ends NASHVILLE, TN – NOVEMBER 11: Jonnu Smith #81 of the Tennessee Titans runs with the ball while defended by Stephon Gilmore #24 of the New England Patriots during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium on November 11, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) https://rookiedraftguide.com/ Jonnu Smith will finish as a top 12 TE Damn I thought I had this one. I was higher than the consensus rankings entering the season and for a while this one looked like it was in the bag. Through Week 8, Smith was TE8 averaging 11.3 PPR points a game. From Week 9-17 he fell to TE21 and 8.7 points per game. Part of his decline was injury. He missed time with an ankle injury and the game in which he returned he went scoreless. Somewhat lost in his hot start, was that during his early season success it came with either AJ Brown or Corey Davis out of the lineup. Further damaging Smith’s fantasy relevance was the season ending injury to offensive lineman Taylor Lewan. After that injury, Jonnu ran less routes and stayed in to block more often than not and we saw the emergence of Anthony Firkser for the Titans. I remain high on this talent and it will be interesting to see where he ranks entering 2021, and where he will play as Jonnu is currently a free agent. Darren Waller will finish outside the top 15 in 2020 Umm what? We have a new contender for my worst bold take of the year. Seriously what was I thinking? Well let me explain. The thought was that in 2019, the Raiders’ passing game was limited. In addition to Waller, the Raiders had Tyrell Williams who was limited by injury, Hunter Renfrow, and little else. In 2020, the Raiders would have a dramatically different look as they added three rookie wide receivers: Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Lynn Bowden. In the end, Ruggs struggled, Bryan Edwards was invisible, and Lynn Bowden was a Dolphin. In addition, we saw last season that when Renfrow was more involved, Waller faded. I had factored on that happening as well. It didn’t. As a result, Waller didn’t miss a beat. In 16 games in 2020, Waller totalled 278.6 PPR points averaging 17.4 a game on route to a TE2 finish. In 2019 he totalled 221 points and averaged 13.8 points a game as the TE3. Not only did he not fall outside the top 15, he improved one spot in the standings and solidified himself as a top-3 TE entering 2021. Bonus Bold Takes PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 20: Diontae Johnson #18 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in action during the game against the Denver Broncos at Heinz Field on September 20, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) https://rookiedraftguide.com/ Diontae Johnson will finish ahead of Juju Smith-Shuster and be a top-10 WR in 2020. The thought process here was pretty simple. I figured that a WR that could have the season the Johnson did in 2019 with the combination of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges as his QBs would explode with the sure upgrade to Ben Roethlisberger in 2020. I was right, just not as right as I was anticipating. Johnson was WR39 in 2019 with 163.1 PPR points, in 2020 he was WR21 with 221.8 PPR points. He didn’t take as big of a step as I had though he would, and he dropped more passes than any other WR in the game. Juju also bounced back rather nicely all things considered and finished with 234.1 points (14.6/game), and as the WR16 and averaging 14.6 points/game. In 2019 he was limited to 9.4 PPR points a game and a WR65 finish in 12 games. I also didn’t factor in what Chase Claypool accomplished in his rookie season. Claypool’s 214.9 PPR points in 16 games impacted both Diontae and Juju but based on the roles they held in the offense Claypool impacted Johnson much more. Kareem Hunt will outscore Nick Chubb in PPR scoring leagues in 2020. It’s nice to finally hit on one of these. One out of 10 isn’t bad right? Hunt finished the season as RB10 compared to Chubb at RB11. Now Hunt playing in all 16 games compared to Chubb appearing in 12 had a dramatic impact on how this one played out. I don’t care a win is a win and I’ll take it. Lost in all of this is the fact that prior to Chubb’s injury in Week 5, Hunt was RB7 averaging 17.4 PPR points a game and Chubb was RB15 averaging 15.1 PPR points a game. No matter how you look at this one I was right, Both of these backs are great fantasy assets in this Kevin Stefanski led Cleveland offense. That’s going to do it for today’s episode. Thank you for listening to the Revisiting of Sully’s 2020 Bold Predictions If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. In addition, you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Community , and RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football Community on Facebook and I am @Sully in our Discord chat as well. Don’t forget to subscribe to the RotoHeat YouTube Channel if you haven’t already. The team is hard at work developing content for rookiedraftguide.com and Brad Menendez is starting to drop his 2021 player profiles. You want to make sure you visit rookiedraftguide.com and you certainly don’t want to miss Brad’s profiles on YouTube. I’ll be back next week as we have a look at some of the key Free Agents heading into 2021. Until then, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers. Take care.
15 minutes | 9 days ago
2020 Fantasy Football TE Awards
CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 27: Tight end Harrison Bryant #88 of the Cleveland Browns celebrates after catching a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter against the Washington Football Team at FirstEnergy Stadium on September 27, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns defeated the Washington Football Team 34-20. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football TE Awards 2020 Fantasy Football TE Awards Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 124 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of Podcasts. Alright, episode 124, concludes my four-part series, recapping the fantasy season. Each episode has covered one of the four skills positions. In this fourth and final episode we roll thru the Tight End position. I will give you Sully’s MVP, Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player, Breakout and Bust for each position. For the Dynasty fantasy managers, I provide a buy and a sell at each position as well. Tight End MVP: Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs Of all the awards I have given out this season, awarding Travis Kelce with the MVP award is one of the easiest. Kelce finished his season as the TE1 in fantasy scoring for the 5th consecutive season. 2020 Travis Kelce’s best season to date. His 105 catches 1416 yards, and 11 touchdowns were all career highs, and his 145 targets were second only to his 2018 season in which he had 150. The 312.80 PPR points in 15 games were 34.2 more points than Darren Waller, and 136.20 more than Robert Tonyan. Both Waller and Tonyan played all 16 of their teams games in 2020. To put how good Kelce was into perspective, Waller averaged 17.4 points/game and Tonyan averaged 11.0. For these two to catch Kelce, Waller would need to have played 18 games this season and Tonyan 28. His 1416 receiving yards are the most ever by a TE, breaking the record set a few seasons ago by George Kittle, and if Travis Kelce were a WR he would have finished the season as WR4. If you played in a TE premium league Travis Kelce quite possible led you league in scoring. I had a hard time paying his price tag this season, he entered 2020 with a consensus ADP of TE1 and 19th overall. Seems expensive but considering that Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Julio Jones, Kenyon Drake and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were 14-18, and that Kelce outscored them all, he was actually a bargain. Travis Kelce IMO was the most valuable fantasy asset period in 2020, making him a slam dunk no-brainer for TE MVP. Rookie of the Year: Harrison Bryant – Cleveland Browns Welcome to the well, someone has to win this award, award. Other then Bryant the real only other contender was Chicago’s Cole Kmet. Turns out there were 4 main qualifies to be eligible for this award; 1. You need to be a TE, 2. You need to be a rookie, 3, two feet, 4. Heartbeat. Wanna have some fun? Try talking about Harrison Bryant after discussing Travis Kelce. Bryant from all accounts is going to be a pretty decent TE in the NFL and should have some fantasy relevance in the coming years. TEs take time and its not often a TE is overly fantasy relevant as a rookie. Since 2010 only two TEs have had top-12 TE seasons as a rookie. Rob Gronkowski in 2010, and Evan Engram in 2017. That is 2 out of 155 if you are curious. Bryant finished 2020 with 24 catches on 38 targets for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns in 12 games, 9 of which were starts. 61.8 PPR points and a TE42 finish. Runner up Cole Kmet finished as the TE41 with 62 points, but he played in 3 more games than Bryant. The games played variable was the difference in determining this award. TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 18: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is tackled by Oren Burks #42 of the Green Bay Packers during the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 18, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football TE Awards Comeback Player: Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers This is an easy one. Rob Gronkowski coming out of retirement to join his buddy tom Brady in Tampa Bay was one of the bigger stories this past offseason. I was rather skeptical in terms of Gronk’s abilty to deliver this season. The last time we saw Gronk play was 2018, and the last time he was Gronk was 2017. In the end he turned out to be a watered-down version of Rob Gronkowski, but the man did average 9.3 PPR points and finish as the TE8. 9.3 PPR points a game doesn’t sound like much, but the reality is that 9.3 PPR points is good enough to make you a top-12 TE the past 6 seasons. Says more about this dumpster fire of a position than anything else. At the end of the day the only other TE that I considered for the award was Jimmy Graham. Graham finished as TE13 .3 points per game behind Gronkowski. Graham was TE21 in 2019 and Gronk was partying on a boat somewhere. Pretty easy decision for me when all was said and done. Breakout: Robert Tonyan – Green Bay Packers If you saw this season coming from Robert Tonyan, raise your hand. Now if you raised your hand put it down, you’re a liar. I will admit I had no clue who Robert Tonyan was until his 3 TD performance in Week 4. I’m willing to bet I wasn’t alone here. I figured hmm, that was cute and didn’t give it much thought as I watched numerous fantasy managers in numerous leagues pick him up off of waivers. Tuns out he has been around since 2018. Actually 2017. He was signed as an UDFA by the Detroit Lions in 2017. He was released before the season began and signed onto the Packers’ practice squad for the final four games of the season. He was re-signed by the Packers for the 2018 season, and 2019. In 2018 and 2019 Tonyan totalled 14 catches for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. In all honestly, I should have known who this guy was. In his 2020 breakout season, Tonyan was targeted 59 times and caught 52 of them for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. His 88.1% catch rate tells me two things, Aaron Rodgers only targeted him when he was open, and Robert Tonyan can get open. Turns out he was more than a one game wonder and his week 4 performance was an indication of that. Hats off to all those fantast managers that added him off waivers, I wish I had joined you. Bust: Evan Engram – New York Giants Evan Engram was my ride or die TE in numerous leagues this season. It was a hell of a lot more die than ride I can tell you that. Engram entered the season as the TE6 in consensus ADP and the 70th overall pick. He was a late 6th round pick, and I giggled to myself as I scooped him up draft after draft. This is also a TE that I have several dynasty shares of. Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson, Jonnu Smith are three TEs that I could have drafted not to mention Mike Gesicki and Hayden Hurst. All of those TEs finished the season with more points that Engram. All those TEs had an ADP lower than Evan Engram. Gesicki went 6 rounds after Engram, Jonnu Smith 8 rounds later. I can still not get the image of Engram dropping a walk in 55-yard touchdown pass this season against the Eagles. In fairness the ball hit him in the hands. That play should be what Giants fans are bitching about, that play is why you only won 6 games and the Eagles tank job in Week 17 mattered, and that play is what solidifies Evan Engram as my fantasy bust at TE in 2020. He catches that by the way, he adds 12.5 PPR points to his season total and goes from TE15 to TE8. TE to Buy: Irv Smith Jr. – Minnesota Vikings In the previous episodes of my fantasy awards I have listed Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen from my Minnesota Vikings as a sell this offseason. I have noted that the Vikings likely throw less in 2021. So, why am I buying Irv Smith Jr.? Kyle Rudolph will be 31 entering his 2021 season and brings with him a 9.45MM cap hit. The Vikings are starved for cap space and cutting him and taking the 4.35MM cap hit saves them 5.1MM against that cap. What makes this an easy roster decision is A. You have Irv Smith and Tyler Conklin in house, and B. Kyle Rudolph sucks. Irv Smith is going to be a top-5-8 TE was many years to come, trust me and go get him. TE to Sell: Hayden Hurst Hayden Hurst finished as a top-10 TE this season if you include week 17. I hope by now that y’all have figured out that I do. In the process he exceeded his ADP of TE13 entering the season. Of the top of my head, I had him at TE14 I believe. Public perception rightfully so would be that Hurst had a good season. Well Heat Seekers this is where I earn my pay cheque, he didn’t. He was projected to score 12.3 PPR points a game, he finished with 149.1 PPR points – 9.3 per game. He also killed you the majority of weeks this season. In weeks 5, 11, 13, and 14 his best week was 2.8 points in Week 5. He was TE29 that week. You either lost those weeks or had a hell of a roster. He added 4 more weeks under 9 PPR points – Weeks 1,3,4,12. His best week of those 4 was a 9.1 week 4. Hurst was TE12 that week. God, I hate the TE position. So, half of the season he was under 10 PPR points per game. He benefited from the Falcons being complete garbage on defense and the injury to Julio Jones. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for tuning in for my 2020 Fantasy Football TE Awards. If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football Group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. In our next episode I will wrap up the 4-part Fantasy Awards series with the Tight Ends. Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers. Take care.
17 minutes | 10 days ago
2020 Fantasy Football WR Awards
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – DECEMBER 06: Minnesota Vikings Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches this pass from Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) for 40-a yard gain as Jacksonville Jaguars Cornerback Luq Barcoo (36) defends during the 3rd quarter of a National Football League game between the Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars on December 6, 2020, at US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) In Episode 122 Sully brings you his 2020 Fantasy Football RB Awards. 2020 Fantasy Football WR Awards Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 123 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of Podcasts. Alright, episode 123, picking up my four-part series, recapping the fantasy season. Each episode will cover one of the four skills positions. Episode 3 in the series is Wide Receiver position. I will give you Sully’s MVP, Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player, Breakout and Bust for each position. For the Dynasty fantasy managers, I provide a buy and a sell at each position as well. Wide Receiver MVP: Devante Adams – Green Bay Packers There were a few different ways that I could have gone with this one, Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs. I even had a scenario in which Justin Jefferson grabbed this award but that was a tad ridiculous and more of a Viking’s fan trying not to award a Packer the MVP. As good a season as those two had, there is no denying Adams here. For the record I believe that Devante Adams is the best WR in football. So, handing him this award was fairly straight forward. He finished his season with 358.4 PPR points, 29.5 points clear of Tyreek Hill who played one more game and 29.8 clear of Diggs who played in two more contests. Adams averaged 25.6 points per game compared to Hill’s 21.9, and Diggs’ 20.5. When Defensive Coordinator’s draw up a plan to defend the Packers they key on Adams, he sees every type of coverage imaginable on a weekly basis and it simply does not matter. Adams gets open, Rodgers hits him, wash, rinse, repeat. Aaron Rodgers targeted Adams 149 times this season, only three times was he targeted less than 10 times this season and one of them was week 2 when he left early due to injury. Adams turned those 149 targets into 115 catches for 1374 yards and 18 scores. 5 times he gained more than 40 yards and 73 of his 115 grabs moved the chains. In the end this award goes to Adams with my utmost confidence and in reality, upon further review it wasn’t close. Rookie of the Year: Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings Awarding Justin Jefferson the Fantasy MVO at WR was a stretch, awarding him Fantasy WR ROY was a slam dunk. Honestly no other rookie WR came close and this was a hell of a rookie WR class. Jefferson appeared in all of the Vikings 16 games in 2020. He finished the season with 88 receptions on 125 targets for 1400 yards and he scored seven touchdowns. He wasn’t a starter in Vikings offense until Week 3 His 1,400 receiving yards were the most all-time among rookie receivers, surpassing Anquan Boldin. His 88 receptions set a new rookie mark in Minnesota, surpassing Randy Moss, you may have heard of him. Jefferson was labeled as a slot receiver only but thankfully the Vikings lined him up outside as well this season. JJ showed elite route running and body control playing on the outside in Minnesota’s two-receiver set base offense. 23 of his 88 grabs were 20+ yard receptions, 4 times they were 40+ yards and his longest grab of the year went for 71 yards, and 58 of his grabs resulted in first downs. His 1400 yards were the third most by a WR this year and he trailed only Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins in receiving yards. Expect Jefferson to replace Adam Thielen as Minnesota’s No.1 receiver next year. It’s possible that Jefferson gets even better in 2021 when you consider Thielen’s unsustainable red zone touchdown run in 2020. Justin Jefferson takes home my Fantasy ROY award, and I have a strong feeling this will not be the only award I bestow upon him in his career. FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 28: Lee Smith #85 and Josh Allen #17 celebrate with Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills after Diggs’ touchdown during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 28, 2020 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football WR Awards Comeback Player: Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills From a Viking WR to a former Viking WR in Stefon Diggs. There were a bunch of players that I would like to have the opportunity to re-rank this season, none more so than Diggs. Simply put I blew it here. In 2019 as a Viking, Diggs finished his season as WR24 with 212.1 PPR points, and he was as unhappy a WR as there was. He ultimately got his wish and was shipped to Buffalo. In 2020 Diggs led the NFL in targets, with 166, receptions with 127, yards with 1535, and tied for 15th in touchdowns with 8. Add those stats up and Diggs had a 328.6 PPR point season. Simply put it was a remarkable year It becomes even more impressive when compared to 2019. He saw an increase in fantasy points of 132.41 (8.27/game). He was targeted 72 more times in 2020 vs. 2019, had 64 more receptions, and 405 more yards. When Diggs expressed his displeasure in Minnesota, I was willing to drive him to the airport. If he ever changes his mind and wants to come back, I would be happy to pick him up. Breakout: Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons There were some serious options here for Fantasy Breakout of the Year. I considered Diontae Johnson, Curtis Samuel, and Corey Davis to name a few. In the end I selected Calvin Ridley by the narrowest of margins over D.K. Metcalf. Ridley completed 2020 with a career high 143 targets, a career high 90 receptions, and a career high 1375 receiving yards. His 9 touchdowns were one less than the 10 he posted in his rookie season. His 281.5 PPR points were a career high, 88 more than 2019, and 74.7 more than his 2018 rookie season. 2020 was his first of what I expect to be many top-12 WR finishes, landing at WR5. His 18.8 PPR points per game were 4th best. Ridley this year stepped up in the Falcons offense that was forced to deal with Julio Jones for 7 games this season. In the process Ridley has assumed the No.1 WR role in Atlanta. I mentioned earlier that I got some takes wrong this season, well I got some right as well. I had Ridley as my WR11 entering 2020, many thought I was too high, and it turns out I was too low. Bust: DJ Chark – Jacksonville Jaguars It feels like I have been cautioning fantasy mangers when it comes to D.J. Chark for years now. Reality is it has only been two. Chark entered 2020 as the consensus WR23, in the end he finished as WR49. Last season he finished as WR17. He saw a decrease in fantasy points from 2019-2020 of 72.21 PPR points. In 2019 he averaged 15.10 points in 15 games, and in 2020 he averaged 11.80 points in 13 games. When Chark started 2019 as the WR5 thru 8 weeks, dynasty managers went bonkers and his value was perceived to be one of multiple first rounders. Simply put that was insane. Chark in my opinion was and somehow still is an overrated fantasy asset. By the way in weeks 9-17 a season ago he was WR47, giving all that paid attention some insight to his future. The fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars are adding Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence in the NFL Draft, and the fact that Chris Conley and Keelan Cole are free agents bodes well for Chark. He might be one of breakout candidates entering 2021. For now, he exits 2020 as a bust. WR to Buy: Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos When Courtland Sutton was selected by the Denver Broncos 40th overall out of SMU in the 2018 NFL Entry Draft I was high on him. He finished his rookie season with 42 grabs on 84 targets for 704 yards and 4 scores. He was WR50. In 2019 he increased his numbers to 72 catches on 124 targets for 1112 yards and 6 scores. He finished as WR19. In 2020 I gobbled up Courtland Sutton shares in my start-up drafts like a man possessed. When Brad Menendez is high on a WR, you should be too. In his first two seasons Sutton was catching passes from Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and Drew Lock, note exactly a list of the leagues elite. Set to take the next step in 2020 with a new offensive coordinator, two additional WR weapons, and a second year TE with upside, Sutton suffered a torn ACL in Week 2, after missing Week 1 with a foot injury. His promising season was limited to 6 targets and 3 catches for 66 scoreless yards. There are a lot of fantasy managers down on the Broncos and specifically Drew Lock. If you listened to episode 120 then you would know I am not one of those managers. Sutton coming back into this offense gives it life. It enables Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler to be the No.2&3WR options they were supposed to be, and don’t forget about Noah Fant. Sutton will be extremely hard to double cover next season. I like all these weapons to increase in value and if I can buy Sutton I will be. WR to Sell: Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings I need to start this off by stating what might be the obvious, I love Adam Thielen. I love him as a Vikings fan, and I love his as a fantasy manager. The reality is there comes a time when all players start to take the journey down the backside of the mountain. In 2021 Thielen’s fantasy value will start heading south. He is a sell for me as a result. Thielen burst onto the fantasy radar in the later portion of 2016. From 2016-2020 Thielen averaged 119 targets, 83 receptions 1087 yards and 8 touchdowns a season. In 2020 he finished as WR10 with only 74 catches and 925 receiving yards. He reached the top-12 for the third time in four seasons on the back of 14 touchdowns (third most among WRs). Scoring 14 touchdowns in a season is hard to do, to replicate it again is extremely unlikely. In 2017 on 34 more targets with 17 more receptions he scored 4 times Thielen finished that season as WR7. In 2018 he had 45 more targets than in 2020 and 45 more receptions. That season on route to finishing as WR7, he scored 9 times. In his career prior to 2020, Adam Thielen caught one TD every 12.92 receptions. In 2020 he had one for every 5.26 catches. I mentioned when listing Kirk Cousins as a QB sell in episode 120 that the Vikings offense likely regresses in terms of passing volume and efficiency in 2021. Justin Jefferson is the new No.1 WR and Adam Thielen will be entering his age 31 season. I love this player, but he is going to regress and you should be selling him now as a result. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for tuning in for my 2020 Fantasy Football WR Awards. If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football Group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. In our next episode I will wrap up the 4-part Fantasy Awards series with the Tight Ends. Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers. Take care.
14 minutes | 11 days ago
2020 Fantasy Football RB Awards
CINCINNATI, OH – OCTOBER 04: Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson (30) carries the ball during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on October 4, 2020, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football RB Awards 2020 Fantasy Football RB Awards Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 122 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts. In episode 122, I picking up my four-part series, recapping the fantasy season. Each episode will cover one of the four skills positions. Episode 2 covers the Running Back position. I will give you Sully’s MVP, Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player, Breakout and Bust for each position. For the Dynasty fantasy managers, I provide a buy and a sell at each position as well. Running Backs MVP: Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints I had some internal debate on this one. I could have made an argument for Dalvin Cook, and certainly for Derrick Henry as well. In the end I went with Kamara. In the first 11 weeks of the season, Alvin Kamara was a top 12 RB in every week. It wasn’t until week 12 that he fell out of the top 12. In the first 11 weeks of the season, he was the RB1 averaging 25.69 PPR points a game, 15.60 points clear of RB2 Dalvin Cook, and 82.80 clear of RB3 Derrick Henry. In Week 14, Kamara was RB9, Henry was RB1, and Cook was RB11. Week 15 Kamara was RB16, Henry was RB5, and Cook was RB3. The fantasy playoffs clinched this for me, in weeks 14-16, Alvin Kamara was the RB1, Henry the RB3, and Cook RB5. All were great, but in Week 16 Kamara exploded for 56.20 points and was the runaway RB1, in the most important week of the season. Cook was RB15, and Henry slumped to RB31. Overall, on the season, including Week 17, Kamara was RB1 with 377.80 PPR points, followed by Dalvin Cook with 337.80, and Derrick henry rounded out the top 3 with 333.1 points. You were happy to have any of these backs on your fantasy roster, but it was Kamara that from start to finish gave you the best week in week out chance of winning. Rookie of the Year: James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars For a few moments I debated if Johnathan Taylor belonged here. I quickly ruled him out when looking at the duration of the 17 week (16 game) schedule. James Robinson delivered you 14 double digit PPR fantasy days in 2020. The only weeks he did not were weeks that he wasn’t in the lineup. Robinson missed the last two weeks of the season with a high ankle sprain. Taylor who ended up with more fantasy points (if you include week 17) posted 11 double digit weeks. It is the weeks where he failed to delivery that are costly. Week 8 – 5.40, Week 9- 9.4, and week 10 -5.70 PPR points when you are fighting for a playoff spot is tough to swallow. The defining factor in my decision process here is acquisition cost. Jonathan Taylor had a consensus ADP of RB20 and pick 45 overall. If you wanted JT on your roster in 2020, he cost you a fourth-round pick. Taking him at 45 you took him over Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, and DK Metcalf. James Robinson on the other hand was a waiver wire pick-up. His ADP was 246th overall and he was the RB63. In a 12-team league with 16 player rosters the final player selected was pick 192. Robinson was a league winning player that was absolutely free. He is the runaway rookie RB MVP. CLEVELAND, OH – NOVEMBER 15: Kareem Hunt #27 of the Cleveland Browns runs with the ball against the Houston Texans at FirstEnergy Stadium on November 15, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football RB Awards Comeback Player: Kareem Hunt – Cleveland Browns Hunt finished the season as RB10 including Week 17. He averaged 13.70 PPR points per game. In a shortened season due to suspension in 2019 he was RB47. As a result of his 2019 season combined with the fact that he shares a backfield with Nick Chubb led to Hunt being the RB27 in consensus ADP, and 63rd overall. I had Hunt being a RB2 this season and he exceeded expectations. In fairness to all involved the injury to Nick Chubb benefited Kareem Hunt. It didn’t however benefit him as much as one would think. In weeks 1-4 Hunt as RB7 while Chubb was RB15. In the games Hunt suited up for without Chubb he was the RB11, and in weeks 9-17 Hunt as RB18 while Chubb was RB6. Kareem Hunt drafted at his consensus ADP of RB27 provided you a solid return on your investment and as a result he is my RB Comeback Player of the Year. Breakout: Ronald Jones – Tampa Bay Buccaneers For all that follow the RotoHeat team, and specifically me, know that I was not high on Ronald Jones. In fact, one could say I hate Ronald Jones, and if they did, I am not sure they are wrong. Rojo finished the season at RB20 in 14 games played. His 13.3 PPR points that he averaged weekly ranked 21st among all backs that played 7 games or more this season. Prior to 2020, Ronald Jones had fantast finishes of RB96 in 2018, and RB25. RB20 up from RB25 isn’t a massive breakout but I don’t put players in the bust category because of injury so I wont limit Rojo here either. Has he played a full 16 games in 2020 as he did in 2019, at his average of 13.3 points/game, he would have finished at RB14. One could argue with better usage by Head Coach Bruce Arians that Ronald Jones could have flirted with a top-12 season. My opinion on the player has not changed that much to be honest, but I feel I must give credit where credit is due. Bust: Le’Veon Bell – Kansas City Chiefs Now the east thing to do here would be to list Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley in this spot. In my opinion a guy can not be a bust due to injury. So therefore, my bust came down to Le’Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette. Fournette gave you 3 weeks this season that you didn’t hate yourself for starting him. Bell on the other hand barley gave you one, a 14.60-point week 15. I have been lower than consensus on Lev Bell since he left Pittsburgh. To be completely honest I was low on him even while he was there refusing to play on the franchise tag. I had him as a RB2 last season and was accused of being insane. For the record Bell was RB16 last season, guess I am sane after all. Entering this season with the New York Jets I wanted no part of Bell, in that offense with that coach. Like none. His consensus ADP entering the season was RB18, and to be clear I didn’t hate that I hated where he played. When he was released and signed in Kansas City I was somewhat interested and truthfully looked to obtain some shares. When the asking price was Bell in his prime those conversations were over. Bell was RB53 in his time with the Chiefs this season, a massive disappointment and a massive fantasy bust. RB to Buy: Jeff Wilson Jr. – San Francisco 49ers I like Jeff Wilson, likely more than the average fantasy manager. So my desire to buy this asset is perhaps slightly elevated. What I saw in Wilson when given to work I liked. In the weeks he had double digit carries, those were weeks 7,12,14,15,16, and 17 Wilson finished as RB1, RB63, RB29, RB27, RB5, and RB7. Wilson entered 2020 with a dynasty ADP of RB84 and is currently ranked as RB77. Raheem Mostert will be 29 entering the 2021 season, Tevin Coleman should be unemployed. You are not buying a top-12 RB but more importantly you are not paying for one. You can add a RB with RB3 floor and RB2 upside for a 3rd round rookie pick. RB to Sell: J.D. McKissic – Washington Football Team I have to say I like JD McKissic and he helped me win more than one fantast championships this season. I gobbled up McKissic shares like Pac Man early this season, because I saw potential in the Washington backfield after Adrian Peterson was cut along with Darrius Guice. The potential increased even more when Bryce Love was placed on IR yet again. Listing him as a sell is simply due to the fact, I see this as the peak of his fantasy value. I liken McKissic in 2020 to the 2017 Duke Johnson. Johnson finished 2017 as RB11, he followed that up with RB37, RB29, and RB58 seasons. McKissic would up at RB17 in 2020. 2020 was his second full 16 game season in his 5-year career, the previous was a season ago in Detroit where he finished as RB55. McKissic is under contract for one more season and he is dirt cheap, his cap hit is 1.6 million. It is very possible that Washington enters 2021 with Antonio Gibson and McKissic as their two backs. Its also very possible they add another via the draft or even free agency. Add it all up I don’t see a top 36 season for McKissic let alone another top-24 season. Sell while folks see him as he finished in 2020. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for tuning in for my 2020 Fantasy Football RB Awards. If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football Group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. In our next episode I will run threw the wide receiver position. Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, take care.
16 minutes | 14 days ago
2021 Playoff Fantasy Football Roster Construction
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – DECEMBER 20: Running back Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans runs onto the field for warm ups prior to the game against Detroit Lions at Nissan Stadium on December 20, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) 2021 Playoff Fantasy Football Roster Construction 2021 Playoff Fantasy Football Roster Construction Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 121 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts. With the season being done, its time to take a look at NFL Playoff Fantasy Football. I know that most of you likely do not participate in playoff fantasy football. The format is no where near as popular than the regular season long formats. That is ok, as I have always said play whatever type of fantasy you prefer, there is no format that I am aware of that its worth playing. There are numerous styles of playoff fantasy, and the format we in the 2020 ROTOHEAT NFL PLAYOFF LEAGUE is one player from each playoff roster. When building your roster, you can NOT choose more than 1 player from any single team. The league plays with PPR scoring as all RotoHeat leagues do, and each roster will consist of 3QB, 4RB, 4WR, 3TE The players you select will be used for the entirety of the NFL playoffs. When a player’s team loses, you no longer accrue points for that player. During the Super Bowl, all teams will only have two players still playing. There is still time to enter our league, entry is $25, and the league is run by RotoHeat founder Rick Butts and the league fees are held over on Leaguesafe.com. Head on over to our Facebook page for information. I thought I would bring you this bonus episode to discuss playoff roster construction. There is a method to the madness, simply put there are 6 games this weekend and you will lose 6 of your players and carry 6 more into the next round. These type of playoff leagues are typically determined in the first week. Successfully predicting the winners on Wildcard Weekend. The reason for this in my opinion is that you need to get the most out of the 6 teams in which your roster will drop after this weekend. Because the NFL re-seeds after each round this is the lone week that we can set our lineups based off of matchups. I’ll review each matchup and give you my thoughts on which player or players I like off each roster . Saturday January 9, 2021 Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo BillsLine: Buffalo -6.5Over/Under: 61.6 I like the Bills to win this game, I could see the Colts covering the spread and I like the over. Since I have the Bills winning, I need to hit on the Colt I select. I don’t see any scenario in which I do not grab Jonathan Taylor. Taylor finished the season strong and he is likely the leading fantasy scored in this one off Indy. QB Philip Rivers is not going to throw much, his WRs are hard to trust and the TE are not on the fnatasy radar. Taylor is the one for me rather easily. When it comes to the Bills you have a decision to make. Are you targeting QB Josh Allen or WR Stefon Diggs? You have 3 QB slots on your roster, and 4WR slots. I won’t question anyone who takes either of these two players, but for me its Josh Allen. I see the Bills in the Conference Championship and its going to be Allen that gets you there. Diggs although a great choice won’t score the points Allen does IMO. Allen will be one of my 3 QBs and I will leverage the depth at WR to fill my roster. Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle SeahawksLine: Seattle -3.5Over/Under: 42.5 I hate this game to be perfectly honest. It seems to matchup two teams going nowhere. The Rams are beat up, and the Seahawks have been extremely ordinary on offense for weeks. Who do you grab off of the Rams who I expect to lose this game? Normally I would look at Jared Goff, Cam Akers, or Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp. For me it has to be one of Woods or Kupp. Goff likely doesn’t play and Akers is not 100% so those two are eliminated. I don’t trust Rams backup QB John Walford, certainly not to be one of the remaining 2 QBs on my roster. Seattle was terrible against the WR all season and as a result that is where I go. Kupp seems to be the choice as I believe he sees the most targets. Kupp who was activated off the COVID-19 IR this week in tow games versus Seattle had 12 receptions for 116 yards. On Seattle I look at this matchup and think DK Metcalf gets shut down by Jalen Ramsey, Russell Wilson has struggled of late, Chris Carson is in tough this week, and Tyler Lockett is wildly inconsistent. In the end I’m rolling with Metcalf, I expect the Seahawks to win this game and potentially reach the Conference Championship game. Metcalf wont win you this league during the Wildcard Week, but his the upside going forward can not be ignored. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football TeamLine: Tampa -8.0Over/Under: 45.0 Simply put Tampa should win this game. When looking at their roster and the roster I need to build I am rolling with Rob Gronkowski. He won’t do a lot in terms of volume, but he is a decent bet to score and this format requires 3 TEs. You could also consider one of the WRs here. Antonio Brown has come on as of late as has Chris Godwin. Mike Evans is risky considering his knee injury in Week 17. The passing game and the WRs has been solid of late but the last three teams the Bucs have faced have been Minnesota, Atlanta, and Detroit, a trifecta of mediocrity. I don’t trust the running game so Rojo and Fournette are out and Brady isn’t a worth add here either. Washington comes down to three players for me, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Terry McLaurin and TE Logan Thomas. Gibson isn’t 100% and faces a top run defense in Tampa, McLaurin is a solid pick that I can get behind, but I am rolling with Logan Thomas. Same as Gronk I like his chances to score and unlike Gronk I think he sees plenty of targets. Sunday January 10, 2020 Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee TitansLine: Baltimore -3.5Over/Under: 55.0 I like the Titans to upset the Ravens in this one the same way they beat them in the playoffs a year ago. I expect Derrick Henry to run all over them. Regardless if you think the Titans win or lose I don’t see how you roll with anyone other than Henry, unless you like the contrarian play here, and in that case I would go with A.J. Brown. On Baltimore there are three viable options here, Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Andrews. I am rolling with Lamar Jackson. He will lead the team in fantasy points and even though I see them losing I want the potential Jackson provides. If I am wrong and Jackson and the Ravens win on Sunday, I am happy to carry Jackson on my roster into week 2. I did consider Mark Andrews here but went with Lamar due to his upside and the fact I like two other TEs more. Chicago Bears @ New Orleans SaintsLine: New Orleans -9.5Over/Under: 47.5 The Bears will cover and could potentially pull the upset. I am not confident enough that they do however, but I see this one being close. There are two options here, David Montgomery and Allen Robinson. Matchup decides this for me. The Saints are legit versus the run so I will be adding Allen Robinson to my roster with little hesitation. There are three solid choices for the Saints and perhaps a fourth. The three are obvious, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas. If your roster construction needs a TE you could consider Jared Cook, but I will not. Brees is still dealing with 11 broken ribs, and the bears pass rush could put him back on the shelf. Michael Thomas is coming back from IR and I am not sure how healthy his ankle is. That leaves me with my choice and its Alvin Kamara. I believe he’s the best option here. There is a chance Kamara doesn’t play this week, but I am betting he does. I am not taking a zero off of the Saints so if Kamara can’t clear COVID-IR, I will put Thomas in at WR and swap out Allen Robinson for David Montgomery. Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh SteelersLine: Pittsburgh -6.0Over/Under 47 The Browns are without head coach Kevin Stefanski and have also placed G Joel Bitonio and WR KhaDarel Hodge on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Joel Bitonio is a Pro-Bowl caliber guard, so his loss is significant. I think Pittsburgh finds a way to win this football game. I see the Browns trying to control the time of possession and as a result I will roll with Nick Chubb. Kareem Hunt and Jarvis Landry are also options but in the end its Chubb and my projected workload for him that puts him over. Pittsburgh came down to process of elimination for me as the only spot I have available for them is at WR. This works as the run game is a mess and Ben Roethlisberger has not looked like a QB I want to roster of late. Eric Ebron would have been a desperation add. So, its going to be Juju Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool. I selected Johnson. I believe he sees the bulk of the targets as long as Pittsburgh remains active in these playoffs and the best chance to score as well. Bye Teams Green Bay Packers The Packers present four viable options. Aaron Jones, Devontae Adams, Robert Tonyan, and MVP QB Aaron Rodgers. I can not pass up on Aaron Rodgers here. Adams is tough to leave on the sidelines. Jones and Tonyan are absolutely viable fantasy options, but in the end Rodgers is the straw that stirs the drink in GB, and I see Rodgers taking this team to the Super Bowl this season. Kansas City Chiefs Selecting a player off the Chiefs is like visiting a buffet table, everything looks good and you want it all. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce lead the way, and some may feel Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an option. It is really hard to leave Mahomes, and Hill off my roster, but that is exactly what I am doing by selecting Travis Kelce. If Travis Kelce were a WR he would have finished at WR4 with his 312.80 regular season points. One of the WRs that he would trail is Tyreek Hill who posted 328.9 PPR points this season. Mahomes is Mahomes and you always want him on your roster, but in the end the positional advantage that Kelce carries with him can’t be ignored. So to recep my team looks like; QB- JOSH ALLEN – BUFFQB- AARON RODGERS – GBQB- LAMAR JACKSON – BAL RB- JOHNATHAN TAYLOR – INDYRB- NICK CHUBB – CLEVRB- DERRICK HENRY- PITTSRB- ALVIN KAMARA – NO WR- COOPER KUPP – LARWR- DIONTAE JOHNSON – PITTWR- ALLEN ROBINSON -CHIWR- DK METCALF -SEA TE- ROB GRONKOWSKI -TBTE- LOGAN THOMAS- WFTTE- TRAVIS KELCE – KC That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for tuning in for my 2021 Playoff Fantasy Football Roster Construction episode. If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition, you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. I’ll be back with episode 122 as I get back into my 2020 Fantasy Awards series, with a review of the Running Back position. Stay safe and healthy Heat Seekers take care.
19 minutes | 15 days ago
2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 03: Quarterback Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers passes during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on January 03, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 120 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of Podcasts. In this episode I am kicking off a four-part series, recapping the fantasy season. Each episode will cover one of the four skill positions. Episode 1 kicks it off at the Quarterback position. I will give you Sully’s MVP, Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player, Breakout and Bust for each position. For the Dynasty fantasy managers, I provide a buy and a sell at each position as well. Quarterbacks MVP: Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills The first of my 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards is the MVP. My MVP could have gone to one of three quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers. In the end I selected Allen. Josh Allen entered the season with an average of 220 completions on 391 attempts for 2582 yards with 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His completion percentage was 56.2%. Well in 2020, Allen completed 396 of his 572 passes, 69.2%, an increase over his previous 2 seasons average of 13%. That is insane and unheard of. He threw for a Bills record 4544 yards and added 37 touchdown passes and tossed 10 picks. He finishes the fantasy season with 405.06 points the only QB to eclipse 400 this season. Josh Allen vastly exceeded my expectations this season and he finishes the year as my Fantasy MVP. Rookie of the Year: Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers The first of my 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards is the ROY. Unlike the MVP, this one was a no-brainer. As soon as Joe Burrow went down with a season ending knee injury this race was over, and it was likely over before the injury. Herbert finished the season as QB9 with 342.84 points in 15 games played. His average points per game landed him at QB7 for all QBs that appeared in 6 or more contests. He isn’t just the best rookie QB in 2020, he is one of the best of all-time. Herbert winds up with six rookie records, including: Total touchdowns (36), passing touchdowns (31), completions (396), 300-yard passing efforts (eight), multi-touchdown passing games (10) and three-score days (six). Herbert fell 39 yards shy of the rookie passing yardage record. He was remarkably consistent throughout the season. His only true dud of a game was in Week 13, a 6.46-point performance against the New England Patriots. Back that game out and he averaged 24.03 points in his other 14 games. Herbert will be drafted as a top-10 QB in 2021 and he should be. I am interested to see who the Chargers hire as their next Head Coach after parting ways with Anthony Lynn. I am betting that whomever they hire will have a plan for Justin Herbert and the Chargers potent offense. GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 20: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after throwing a touchdown in the second quarter against the Oakland Raiders at Lambeau Field on October 20, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards Comeback Player: Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers Third up in my The first of my 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards is the Comeback Player of the year award. Comeback Player of the year might be an odd title to give Arron Rodgers. He will be the league MVO this season and rightfully so. Even as a Vikings fan I can not deny the face he is the MVP. He gets my CBP award simply due to the fact he finished last season as QB10 averaging 17.65 points per game. This award could have gone to Ben Roethlisberger, simply because he missed all put a half of 2019 due to injury, but hey, Aaron Rodgers deserves recognition for what he accomplished in 2020. When the Packers surprisingly selected Jordan Love in the first round of the draft, the writing appeared to be on the wall for Rodgers in Green Bay. Umm, not so fast. Rogers increased his completions by 19, his yardage by 297, his touchdowns by 22, and he threw 43 fewer passes. Rodgers increased his TD rate (percentage of touchdowns/pass attempt) to 9.1% vs the 4.6% in 2019. If that isn’t enough the 48 passing touchdowns were a career high, and 2 more than JK Scott had punts. In 2013 when Peyton manning thew 55 touchdowns passes the Broncos Britton Colquitt punted 62 times. I have never seen a QB throw more TD passes than his team had punts in a season. I ranked Aaron Rodgers at 12 in my preseason rankings. He ended up at QB3 with 387.26 points 104.88 more than a season ago and a ridiculous 6.56 points a game. Call him MVP, Comeback Player of the Year whatever you decide, Aaron Rodgers deserves all the credit he gets this offseason, and maybe more. Breakout: Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans Next up in the 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards is the Breakout QB of the Year. Many will say that last season was Ryan Tannehill’s breakout season, and I am not sure I would put up much of an argument other than he wasn’t the Titans starter for the complete season like he was in 2020. Tannehill entered the season as the consensus QB21, so it is safe to say that many including myself saw regression coming in 2020 and a significant amount at that. In 2019 Tannehill finished with 2742 passing yards and 22 touchdowns in 12 games. In 2020 in all 16 games, he threw for 3819 yards and 33 touchdowns. In 4 more games he threw just one more interception. He increased his passing yards by 10 yards per game and 1.14TDs per game. The yardage increase was minimal to say the least, the increase of more than a touchdown pass per game certainly is not. Tannehill finished the season as QB7 with 350.36 points. His 21.50 points per game were 2.32 points per game more than his 19.18 2019 season. Most importantly he has established himself as a legit QB1 and is a QB that will certainly be drafted next season. Bust: Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles The last of my 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards is the one that nobody wants to win, the Bust of the year. Carson Wentz had a rough 2020 season, he lost the majority of his offense line, his confidence and his job. His 12 starts in 2020 were the second fewest in his career. In 2017 he started 11 games and in 2018 he started 13. Both of those seasons were cut short by injury, his 2020 season was cut short due to his erratic play. In 11 games in 2017, Wentz threw for 3296 yards and 33 touchdowns. In one less game in 2020 he threw for 2620 yards and 16 touchdowns. Those 11 games in 17 he tossed 7 interceptions, this season in 12 he fired 16 to lead the league. Wentz entered 2020 as the consensus QB11, he finished 2020 as QB22, without a starting job, and as a massive fantasy bust. QB to buy: Drew Lock – Denver Broncos I was higher than most on Drew Lock the year he entered the NFL, and I clearly remain higher on Drew Lock after is disappointing 2020 campaign. Lock appeared in 5 games in his rookie season and he averaged 14.20 fantasy points a game. He was a rookie and he looked like one. He entered 2020 with a new Offensive Coordinator in Pat Shurmur, and with two new weapons on offense, first round WR Jerry Jeudy and second round KJ Hamler. The Broncos also added veteran RB Melvin Gordon via free agency. In 2020 Lock appeared in 13 games and averaged 15.20 points per game a marginal increase over his abbreviated rookie season. He wasn’t good, he made poor decision after poor decisions with the football and threw 15 interceptions in those 13 games. So why is Drew Lock my QB to buy this offseason? Well, there are a few reasons. 1. Courtland Sutton is will be back as the alfa WR and draw plenty of attention in the process. This makes life easier for Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Noah Fant who will be entering his 3rd NFL season. 2. Pat Shurmur god willing will get an offseason program with this team. Shurmur is not a good head coach but he has proven to be a solid OC mainly in Minnesota. During those seasons in Minnesota, he got the career best years out of Sam Bradford and Case Keenum. 3. He will be dirt cheap to acquire. Buying fantasy assets at a discount that have upside is what it is all about. QB to sell: Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins the QB of my Minnesota Vikings gets a bad rap. He gets paid very well, so when he plays well, he is doing what he is supposed to. When he plays poorly, he is the reason the Vikings lose. Trust me when he plays well, he is as well. Minnesota fans are an under the radar ruthless. In 2020 Cousins exceeded expectations in fantasy and real life. He entered the season as the consensus QB22 and ended the season as QB11. Cousins in the process, threw for the third most yards in a season in his career with 4265, and a career best 35 touchdowns. All of this on a run first team. The problem the Vikings ran into this season was as a run first team with a horrific defense, you quickly discover you can’t keep up running the ball when the other team is lighting up the scoreboard. Minnesota had no choice but to throw, and Cousins attempted 516 passes, 72 or 4.5 more than in 2019. The Vikings defense will improve in 2021, its hard to imagine that it wont. As long as Mike Zimmer is running the show, running the football will be what his intent is. The Vikings will have their 6th different OC in the last 7 years. The candidate that the Vikings hire will follow the beat of the drum of his Head Coach or he won’t get the job. Cousins is certainly going to regress, its time to sell while his value is at its peak. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for tuning in for my 2020 Fantasy Football QB Awards If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football Group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. In our next episode I will run threw running back position. Happy New Year Heat Seekers take care.
23 minutes | a month ago
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 119 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts. If you are reading this, chances are you are alive and kicking and preparing for Week 16, the Fantasy Finals. Congratulations!! This crazy fantasy season is almost over and let’s end this with you winning the ship!. This week is what it is all about and as a result I am going to review every game on the NFL schedule and give you all my 2 cents on the fantasy relevant assets in those games. Just a reminder that as the fantasy season wears down, we here at RotoHeat are just warming up. This podcast will remain and take on a more dynasty focus in the coming weeks. In addition we have the RotoHeat YouTube Channel that will continue with our livestreams and soon start rolling our our 2021 Rookie Profile videos. The team is hard at work crunching film and getting rookiedraftguide.com ready for you all. This team led by Rick Butts and Brad Menendez is putting together a rookie draft guide unlike anything seen before. Now with that said, here are my Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC recommendations NFC Home Games GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 05: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers drops back to pass during a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field on October 05, 2020 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Falcons 30-16. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Saints -7 Over/Under 52 Vikings- Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are must start options. The Saints are a legit defense but let’s be real who are you starting off your roster over these two? Cook is RB2 on the season (.30 points behind Alvin Kamara), averaging 24.72 PPR points a game and Justin Jefferson has 6 games with over 100 receiving yards, just broke the Vikings rookie pass catching record previously held by Randy Moss, and sits at WR8 overall through 15 weeks in his rookie season. Adam Thielen is a start as is Kirk Cousins in super-flex or two QB formats. Thielen has been over-shadowed by Justin Jefferson in recent weeks, but the dude is still WR12 on the season averaging 16.96 PPR points a game. What makes 19 a little risky and not a must start option is his dependence on the TD. He has scored 13 times this season, in 13 games played. In the 9 games he has at least one touchdown he is averaging 21.63 points and the 4 in which he has failed to score he is giving you on average 6.48 points. Cousins in all likelihood is going to have to throw more often than normal if the Vikings want a shot to win this one. Cousins has attempted on average 31 passes a game this season which in all honestly surprises me, I figured it would have been much lower. In games he has attempted 30 or more passes he has averaged 21.18 points in 4 point/pass TD scoring leagues. His season long average is 18.66 points/game. I wouldn’t run him out there is a one QB league, but in SF if he is your No.2 QB you are in good shape. Sit the rest of the Minnesota Vikings offense in this one. Saints- Alvin Kamara is a must start. Kamara is the top scoring RB on the season, and has bounced back to his normal self in recent weeks with 17.70, 22.40, and 18.40 fantasy points the last three weeks. Drew Brees is back under center and Michael Thomas is on IR. Kamara is going to see a lot of work in this one against a vulnerable Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed 140 yards and 24.4 points per game against opposing back this season. Eric Kendricks is likely out again making this matchup even better for the Saints. Drew Brees, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook and Latavius Murray should all be started on strongly considered. Brees as long as he is able to make it thru the game is a near must start option. Vikings allow 18.6 points to the QB. Sanders without Thomas is the primary target for New Orleans and Minnesota is 8th worst against the WR allowing 40.4 points a game to the position and a league leading 23 touchdowns. If you are desperate Tre’Quan Smith could be a flex play here. Jared Cook is a back end TE1 this week, that I don’t love but the matchup says he is. Minnesota has been decent against the TE in 2020 but without Hendricks and how Brees likes Cook in the red zone he’s worth a look. Finally Latavius Murray, the Vikings are giving up 140 yards on the ground a game and have allowed 10 rushing scores. Murray is a Rb3 flex play in this revenge game. Sit the remainder of your New Orleans Saints here. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Buc -8.0 Over/Under 53.5 Bucs- Damn near everyone with a two feet and a heartbeat is a must start in this Bucs offense. The Lions are 4th worst against the QB, worst against the RB including a league worst 25 total TDs, 4th worst against the WR, and 6th best against the TE. Brady is a must start, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are as well. If Ronald Jones is healthy he is also a must start back. If Rojo is out Leonard Fournette is a start, Antonio Brown is a start once again, Scott Miller is a desperation flex play and Rob Gronkowski, is a hope for the best i.e. a touchdown type of TE start. I am sitting the remainder of the Bucs here. Lions- Not a lot here I want to start. D’Andre Swift is the closest thing they have to a must start but he is facing a really tough Bucs run defense that is 6th best in fantasy points allowed to the RBs and a team that has allowed the least rushing yards in the league. Marvin Jones Jr. is a RB2 type of start and TJ Hockenson should remain in your lineup regardless of last weeks disappointment. Matthew Stafford should be considered for a No.2 QB spot in multiple QB leagues and nothing more. San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona CardinalsCards -4.0 Over/Under 49 Niners- One must start and that is Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk is fresh off a 30% target share last week, and simple out has been on fire. His last three games; 20.50, 21.90, and 22.30 PPR points. since week 7 his worst fantasy day is 17.50 PPR points. In only 11 games played the rookie is WR29 overall. His 16.40 weekly average is 13th best. If George Kittle is active he is a must start because well he is George Kittle. Other Niners to consider, Jeffrey Wilson. Raheem Mostert is back on IR and Tevin Coleman is well, Tevin Coleman. Wilson should see a pile of work against a defense that allows 126 yards a game and 22 fantasy points to the RB. Nick Mullens is out and CJ Beathard is in, doesn’t matter you shouldn’t start either. Sit the remainder of this offense and consider Jordan Reed id Kittle isn’t active. Cards- Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are a must for obvious reasons. Kyler is my QBX, and Hopkins is my WR3 this week. Start Kenyan Drake, I have hit at RB21, and Chase Edmonds RB29. Other tahn Nuk, I would prefer to fade the Cards WR crew. I have Christian Kirk at WR51, and Larry Fitzgerald at WR86. Kirk could be a desperation flex play if you are stuck. Since three straght 20+ fantasy points outing in weeks 6,7,and 9, he has averaged 5.42 PPR points a week. Dan Arnold my TE24 is a sit, the Niners are a horrible matchup here and I need to be able to trust my TE in finals week more than I would starting Arnold. Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers Packers -3.5 Over/Under 56.0 Titans- There are three must start options for the Titans. Ryan Tannehill my QB10, Derrick Henry my RB1, and AJ Brown my WR10. Tannehill has been smoking hot recently and quite possibly one of the reason you are in your Championship Final. Derrick Henry, man is a beast and he only gets better as the season progresses. AJ Brown WR14 on the season entering this week. He is averaging 17.34 points per game in his 12 games this season which is 8th best. Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith are also options for you. Davis has been great this season and a steal in the late rounds of your drafts. Daivs is WR28 on the year, a year in which he has missed two games, and another where he scored no points. His 15.21 PPG average has him at WR17. Jonnu has struggled of late. He has missed a game due to injury and had several bad ones as well. He was TE8 through the first 8 weeks (7 games), and he is TE18 since Week 9. The matchup isn’t ideal but TE is a garbage position and Jonnu my TE12 is likely better in your lineup that the alternative. Packers- Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Devante Adams are must starts. Rodgers and Adams especially should be motivated after a down week against Carolina. I have Rodgers at QB3, and Adams is my top WR this week. Aaron Jones is my RB5 this week. Jamaal Williams is likely out and Jones should see an above average workload. I would start him regardless of workload but with this likely increase you start him with confidence. The rest of the Packers offer some fantasy value and interest. Start with Robert Tonyan. I would call him a must start but he is my TE7 this week. Said it before and it is worth mentioning again, Aaron Rodgers loves Robert Tonyan. If Tonyan s good enough for Rodgers he’s good enough for me. Allen Lazard is my WR44 and should be in the flex conversation, and Marquez Valdes Scantling at WR55 is destine for my fantasy bench this week. I started MVS last week and he had one target and zero catches. NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 30: D.J. Moore #12 of the Carolina Panthers runs with the ball during the first half against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on December 30, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC Carolina Panthers @ Washington Football TeamWFT -2.5 Over/Under 44 Panthers – Will Christian McCafferty play this week. That is the million dollar question. If you have made your finals without your first round pick, good on ya. There are leagues where he was dealt. regardless if its redraft or dynasty if you have CMC on your roster you want him in your lineup. CMC is averaging 30.13 PPR points a game in his 3 games this season. His Week 2 24.80 PPR point outing is his worst of the season. Simply put if he plays you start him. Mike Davis is an option if CMC sits, if he doesn’t I would likely sit Davis. I have Davis ranked at RB19 currently and I haven’t ranked CMC. I dont expect him to play, those rankings will clearly cahnge is CCM is active. I am sitting Teddy Bridgewater. I have him at QB23. I see the Washington front 7 making his day a long one. At WR, start D.J. Moore (WR15), Robby Anderson (WR26), and Curtis Samuel (WR30). It seems odd to start the QB and start all the receivers, but I see a role for all three that can pay off for you. Moore based off my rankings is the preferred choice here. Sit the rest of the Panthers offense Football Team- The Football Team is a hard one to figure out this week. Starting with QB, who is their QB this week? Alex Smith is hurting and missed last week, Dwyane Haskins is hanging out in strip clubs after finally getting his starting job back. Haskin is facing team discipline for being in the club without a mask. If both of Smith and Haskins are unavailable it will be Taylor Heinicke who was activated from the practice squad last. Heinicke hasn’t played since last year’s preseason. If Heinicke starts I am sitting all WFT guys. The lone exception might be Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin. If Smith starts, add JD McKissic to that list. Currently I have Haskins at QB31, McKissic at RB19, McLaurin at WR13, and Thomas at TE5. I have zero interest in the remainder of the Football Team’s guys in Week 16. Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Seahawks -2.5 Over/Under Rams- Start Goff, Henderson, Woods and Kupp. Goff for some reason loves the Seahawks as an opponent, perhaps its the lack of pass rush from Seattle that he enjoys. I have Goff at 15 so I like him but I certainly don’t love him. With Cam Akers on the shelf this week, Darrell Henderson is the likely the benefactor. Its another like not love situation as Henderson is my RB24. Robert Woods is my WR9, and he is a must start. Cooper Kupp is WR19, I feel really good about him this week as well. No team in football gives up more points to the WR position than Seattle. The Seahawks although better of late have given up on average 45.4 points a game to the WR position and have surrendered 13 touchdowns in 14 games. Josh Reynolds my WR79 is not an option regardless of the juicy match-up. That leave the TEs, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everette. Higbee is TE18 this week and Everette is TE27. I would prefer to sit both although I understand why some of you would start Higbee. Higbee did well last week scoring 16.70 PPR points. It is worth noting that Higbee the TE17 entering the week has 3 double digit fantasy performances in 13 games this season. Seahawks- Normally with Russell Wilson on my roster he is a no-brainer start each and every week. This week I am very hesitant. Wilson is my QB11 and when I finish my rankings this week, possibly lower. Russ hasn’t been cooking recently. Looking at his numbers he hasn’t even been in the kitchen. Weeks 1-9 Wilson was QB3 averaging 29.52 points per game. Since Week 10 he is QB15 averaging 16.43 points per game. Those 16.43 are 20th best. Wilson has one top-10 performance since week 8 if you have a better option this week, take it. Chris Carson is not the same since his foot injury, but he is still a starting option. I have him at RB16. Carlos Hyde is a flex in deep leagues I have him at RB45, and Rashaad Penny has no business in your lineups he’s my RB73. At Wide Receiver you are starting DK Metcalf, but you likely are not overly pumped doing so. He is an elite WR but he is facing the Rams and likely drawing Jalen Ramsey as a result. DK has given his fantasy managers double digit fantasy points in all but two weeks this season. Week 7 in Arizona (when Tyler Lockett went bonkers with 53 points), and Week 10 against Ramsey and the Rams. DK had 4 targets 2 catches and 28 yards in Week 10, his worst game of the season. I have DK at WR12 this week and he is in all my lineups where I have him as an option. Tyler Lockett however I am not quite sure if he is. Lockett is WR26 for me this week, and I can’t help but think I have him too high. Lockett is averaging 16.07 points per game, he is WR11 on the season. He also had 53 points in a single contest. Since that Week 7 explosion, Lockett has averaged 10.48 points per game and is WR32. Lockett has finished as a top-30 WR once since October. Forget the TEs this week as well. Nothing start worthy here. Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Eagles -1.5 Over/Under 49.5 Eagles- Jalen Hurst has started the last two for the Eagles. 19.28 points in a win over New Orleans, and 37.82 points in Week 15 at Arizona (tops in the league). His 57.10 points the last two weeks are second only to Lamar Jackson and his 64.14. Start Hurts with the utmost confidence this week in Dallas. Dallas has been better of late but remains 20th against the QB allowing on average 20.1 points per game. Hurts is my QB6 this week. I would start Hurts over Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson to name a few. Miles Sanders saw 100% of his teams rushing carries last week for the first time all season. He now get Dallas, 6th worst against the RB. The cowboys are giving up on average 106 yards on the ground, 243 through the air and have allowed 14 touchdowns to the RB in 14 games. Sanders my RB7 is a must start. Wide Receiver is a solid meh, just ask ant Eagles fan. The tops would be Greg Ward WR65. Hurts likes Greg ward and as a result he is the best of a bunch of non stating WRs. Alshon Jeffrey (WR), Jalen Reagor (WR84), and Travis Fulgham (WR93), are not options I suggest. Dallas Goedert is an option. I have Goedert at TE8 this week. Zach Ertz however I’d prefer to sit, he is my TE19 in Week 16. Cowboys- Andy Dalton is my QB26 this week. I would prefer to sit him. Ezekiel Elliott who was a late scratch las week is my RB71, basically at this point I don’t expect him to play. Tony Pollard as a result is RB19 and a player I would start. Wide Receiver, I like two of the three. I just don’t love them. Amari Cooper leads the way at WR25 this week followed by CeeDee Lamb at WR38, and Michael Gallup at WR72. Dalton Schultz is my TE16 and I would prefer not to start him. He is a TE with a pulse so I wont blame anyone for rolling with him. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC. If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. I will be back in the New Year Heat Seekers. I am going to take the rest of he Holiday season off. Good luck in week 16, go get the W, and make your fantasy finals! Have a very safe and happy Holiday Season, take care.
29 minutes | a month ago
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit AFC
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit AFC Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 118 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts. If you are reading this, chances are you are alive and kicking and preparing for Week 16, the Fantasy Finals. Congratulations!! This crazy fantasy season is almost over and let’s end this with you winning the ship!. This week is what it is all about and as a result I am going to review every game on the NFL schedule and give you all my 2 cents on the fantasy relevant assets in those games. Just a reminder that as the fantasy season gears down, we here at RotoHeat are just warming up. This podcast will remain and take on a more dynasty focus in the coming weeks, and months. In addition we have the RotoHeat YouTube Channel that will continue with our livestreams and soon start rolling out our 2021 Rookie Profile videos. The team is hard at work crunching film and getting rookiedraftguide.com ready for you all. This team led by Rick Butts and Brad Menendez is putting together a rookie draft guide unlike anything seen before. Now with that said, here are my Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit recommendations AFC Home Games KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 01: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after a touchdown during the 4th quarter of the game against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium on December 01, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit AFC Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders Miami -2.5 Over/Under 47.5 This one was shaping up as an important battle for the two AFC clubs as they battle for a wildcard spot. It is now only important for the Dolphins. Miami enters at 9-5 and the 7th seed in the AFC. They are desperate for a win as they try to hold off the 8th seeded Baltimore Ravens also at 9-5. Miami – The Dolphins don’t have a must start option in their offense even against the accommodating Raiders defensive unit. As of right now I am not certain of the status of Myles Gaskin, Devante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. Gaskin tested positive for Covid last week, Parker and Gesicki are doubtful. If all are out I am starting Salvon Ahmed, he’s in the RB2 conversation and I would consider Lynn Bowden Jr. as a hope and pray flex option. Tua is a fringe QB1 this week I have him at QB15. I would prefer not to start him in 1QB leagues but he has produced the past two weeks with QB4, and QB15 finishes. Las Vegas – for the Raiders its Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller. Jacobs is a little banged up but he is likely the best RB on your roster and he is RB7 on the season averaging 15.65 points per game. Don’t over think it start him. As for Waller, this dude is sick. We throw the term fantasy stud around a little too loosely in this industry in my opinion, but Waller is absolutely one of them. For the first time all season he is my top ranked TE this week. Marcus Mariota is back end QB2 that if in a pinch is viable this week. Miami is tough and motivated this week. Things will be much tougher for Mariota that they were a week ago against the Chargers. Finally Nelson Agholor is a flex option for the truly desperate. Sit the rest of your Raiders here Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Cleveland -9.0 Over/Under 46.5 Browns- In a match-up versus the Jets there is a lot to like here for the Browns. Baker Mayfield leads the way as a must start QB. The past four weeks, Baker has posted 4 consecutive QB1 weeks for the first time in his career. He makes it 5 in Week 16. I would start Baker over Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson this week. He is my QB10 this week. Nick Chubb is a must start as my RB11, and Kareem Hunt is my RB18 so fire him up as well. Other starts for the Browns — Jarvis Landry, any podcast I get to talk about Jarvis is a good one. I have my fantasy BFF at WR14 so get him in your lineup, and Rashard Higgins has really come on of late coinciding with Baker’s rise and he is my WR36. He is a nice RB3/Flex option. I am not crazy about the Browns at TE, but if you need one it is Austin Hooper who I have at TE16. The Jets are a league worst 32nd against the TE, so there is a chance Hooper steps up. The involvement of both David Njoku and Harrison Bryant in the offense concern me and I am sitting Hooper as a result. While you are sitting Hooper, sit the rest of your Cleveland Browns as well. Jets – Simply put sit them all. I don’t want any part of the Jets this week. I have been high on Jamison Crowder all season and I have him at WR49. He is as close to a start as I have here. New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens No Line Giants- Starting QB plays into this one sort of I guess. I like the offense slightly more with Daniel Jones under center versus Colt McCoy. Emphasize on the word slightly. Let’s start with both QB’s regardless of who it is they are a sit, with confidence here. The RB’s don’t really wow me. Wayne Gallman massively disappointed a week ago and he is my RB25 this week, so you can start him, and Alfred Morris is a sit he is my RB70. Dion Lewis isn’t worth rostering so hopefully you don’t have plans to start him. At WR, Sterling Shepard is my favorite at WR48, followed by Darius Slayton at WR55, and Golden Tate at WR74. Flex Shepard if you must. Evan Engram has been my fantasy kryptonite this season. I cant figure the man out. If I start him he disappoints like last week, and when I sit him he plays well. He is my TE12 this week and that says more about the TE position than it does my love for Engram. Sit all the remainder Giants if I missed one here. Ravens- Lamar is a no brainer in Week 16. He is my QB4, and J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are starts as well. Dobbins at RB13 and Edwards more a flex play at RB39. Both should see enough work to pay off and both have TD upside. The WR position is a little murky for the Ravens. As much as I love Lamar here, I am starting him for his legs not his arm. Hollywood Brown would be my top WR to start this week, and I don’t love it. He is my WR33 this week. Sit Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay and Dez Bryant. Mark Andrews is a must start TE. He hasn’t been great in recent weeks, but this is the TE position we are talking about. Andrews is TE8 since Week 10 and that includes two missed games in weeks 12 & 13. Andrews is my TE4 on the week, and a slam dunk against the Giants. HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 11: Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans throws the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the third quarter at NRG Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit AFC Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Houston -9.0 Over/Under 46.0 Bengals- I am starting Giovani Bernard here solely based on the matchup. Only the Detroit Lions are worse against opposing RB’s than the Houston Texans. Tyler Boyd if he clears the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins are both WR4 option this week, and that is that for the Bengals. Texans – Deshawn Watson, David Johnson and that’s really it for me. Watson is my QB5, and DJ is my RB10. I don’t love any of the WRs, but Brandin Cooks is a WR2 this week, Keke Coutee a WR3, and Chad Hansen is my WR49. Sit the TE’s, Jordan Akins is my TE24 and Darren Fells is TE43. Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars Bears -7.5 Over/Under 56 Bears- Since head Coach Matt Nagy gave up play calling duties and handed them to Bill Lazard the Bears offense has looked much better. Mitchell Trubisky has as well. Trubisky is a top-12 QB for me in Week 16, the matchup against the Jags makes him worthy of a start in your fantast championship. The Jags are second worst against the QB position this season. They are allowing 23.2 points per game. At RB David Montgomery has been on fire recently and has likely carried you to your final if you have him on your roster. Not sure you noticed but Monty is RB6 on the season and that has been driven by his week 12-15 results. Monty is the top scoring back since week 12 averaging 26.53 PPR points a game. He is smash must start this week against a defense allowing 29 points a game to the position, 3rd worst in the league. Where the Jags might be the best on defense is against the pass. They are 24th versus the WR and 21st against the TE. Clearly these rankings should not deter you from starting Allen Robinson. He is a must start WR and I have him at WR6 this week. That is about it at WR for me, if you are desperate for a flex in a deeper league, Darnell Mooney is an option. He needs to score to be relevant. Anthony Miller sadly is off the fantasy radar. At TE, Cole Kmet is becoming a thing for fantasy. The reason is he is getting snaps and running a lot of routes. If you are in a TE premium league he’s an option this week, and again in deeper leagues with multiple flexes he is as option at well. I have him at TE15 projected for just under 9 PPR points. If he finished as at top-12 option this week I would not be surprised at all. Jaguars- With the injury to James Robinson last week, my desire to start anyone from Jacksonville took a massive hit. I assume Gardner Minshew is starting again, but he is of no relevance, he is my 28th ranked QB in Week 16. At RB with Robinson likely out its Devine Ozigbo, and he’s a no go. I currently have him at RB60 and he will move up to the 40’s if and when Robinson is declared out. The WRs don’t do much for me here either. If there is one to start its DJ Chark. To be completely transparent I do not like Chark at all, not just this week but in general. With that said he is my WR39, that is flex worthy if you need him. Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, and Chris Conley are off the fantasy radar here. The Bears oddly enough are vulnerable to the TE this season. They have allowed the second most points per game to the position this season 16.1. With that said I have little to no interest in Tyler Eifert and even less in James O’Shaughnessy. Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs -10 Over/Under 53.5 Falcons- Matt Ryan has been two different QBs this season, the one with Julio Jones and the one without. Julio has appeared in 9 games in 2020. In those 9 games Matt Ryan has averaged 19.72 points per game. In the 5 games without Julio, Ryan’s average drops to 14.67 a game. Ryan last week but up 27.84 points without Julio, without that gem his average would be 11.38 a game. I don’t expect Julio to play against the Chiefs and therefore Ryan is a sit. He is my QB18, so still a viable dart throw in super-flex. The Falcons RB group is a mess, I want nothing to do with any of them. Apparently Ito Smith is the lead back now, gross! Smith is my RB37 and that feels way to high. Gurley is RB55, and Brain Hill in the 70’s. Punt that entire backfield this week. I am as big a Calvin Ridley guy as you will find. I wrote about a breakout season article in February, had a bold prediction that he would be a top-12 WR this season and score more points than Julio in the process. Well here we are entering Week 16 and Ridley is WR6 in 13 games. He is a must start option this week. I have him at WR4. Russell Gage is a WR3 this week coming in at WR36, and that is as far as I go at WR for Atlanta this week. That brings me to Hayden Hurst. I have a bet with RotoHeat team member Jacob Wallace. Be sure to check out JayWall’s great work on our site by the way. The bet is simple, JayWall thinks Hurst is a top-10 TE this year, I say he isn’t. Entering Week 16 he is at TE15. Hurst scored last week and posted 12.10 fantasy points in PPR scoring. His first double digit performance since Week 9. He is a sit again this week coming in as my TE20. Chiefs- We can make this one pretty quick. Start Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Now aren’t you glad you tuned in for that cutting edge analysis? Mahomes is my QB1, Hill my WR2, and Kelce my TE2. When CEH went down with his hip/leg injury it made Le’Veon Bell fantasy relevant again. Bell is my RB22 this week. Bell isn’t a must start but I would be comfortable stating him in a game the Chiefs should win easily. It is possible that the Chiefs close this one out with Darrel Williams as I cant imagine the Chiefs want to risk losing Bell. Regardless I’m starting Le’Veon and sitting all other Chiefs backs In addition to Tyreek Hill at WR, Sammy Watkins (WR57), Mecole Hardman (W71), and Demarcus Robinson (WR88) are not options I suggest sitting this week. Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Colts -1.5 Over/Under 45.5 Colts- I was really high on Philip Rivers entering the season and by high I mean I had him around QB18. I jumped off his bandwagon mid season and damn if he hasn’t pulled me back up on board. Since Week 10 Rivers has averaged 18.59 points a game and is the QB11. I don’t recommend stating him other than in super-flex. Rivers in my QB21 this week. I am pleased though that my preseason ranking wasn’t that far off, he is the QB19 season to date. Jonathan Taylor is a must start RB for me this week, and Nyheim Hines is viable as well. I have Taylor at 15 and Hines at 26 versus the Steelers who all of a sudden can’t stop the run. The duo continue to split work and I would have to think that the Colts will want to keep this on the ground as much as possible. Jordan Wilkins however is not an option for me, I have him at RB72, this backfield is a two headed monster now. When Rivers goes to the air, its likely to TY Hilton (WR26), Michela Pittman Jr. (WR50) and to a lesser extent Zach Pascal (WR75). Start Hilton, flex Pittman if required and sit Pascal. Starting Pascal here is chasing points from Week 15 that I don’t see you catching. The TEs are all on my bench regardless of who they are. Trey Burton is my highest ranked at 31, followed by Jack Doyle at 32 and Mo Alie-Cox is at 40. Going out on a limb here but if you need one of these guys this week I am guessing your not in your league final. Steelers- Man what a mess the Steelers have become in a very short period of time. They entered Week 13 as the lone undefeated team in the league at 11-0. They have since lost to Washington, Buffalo, and Cincinnati, and have looked terrible in the process. There is really no way you can trust Ben Roethlisberger this week. I have him at QB20 and even in a super-flex league I would look elsewhere if you have a viable option. My guess is the Big Ben fantasy manager missed their shot at going to the finals last week. It doesn’t get any easier at the RB position this week. Two weeks ago James Conner ran for 18 yards on 10 carries. Those 1.80 points Conner scored in Week 14 are the only points he has scored since Week 11. I have Conner at RB35, and I hate it. If you are desperate he’s a flex play I suppose. Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland Jr. are nothing to get excited about either. I have Snell at RB42, and McFarland at RB84. If possible sit all your Steelers RBs. Indy is the 14th best in the league versus the run, and the Steelers are broken. At WR I still really like Diontae Johnson. He is my WR18 this week, start him. Juju Smith-Schuster is a tough call for me this week, I have him ranked at 28 this week. He is a start but not a comfy one. If you need a WR3 he is viable. Chase Claypool needs to score or you are going to be disappointed. I think there is a good chance he does, so I ranked him at 33. He is flex for you to choose from. Nothing at TE excites me. Eric Ebron left early with a back injury against Cincinnati and I am guessing he doesn’t play against Indy this week. I have him at 15 but he likely goes down when I adjust my rankings later this week. There is zero chance anyone should consider Vance McDonald this week. Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Chargers -3.0 Over/Under 48.5 Broncos- There isn’t a whole lot to be interested in regards to the Broncos this week. Drew Lock is a mess. In 11 games this season he is averaging 14.18 points a game. He sandwiched in a 25.60 point game between a 12.94 and a 10.98 the past three weeks. The Chargers are not a bad matchup, they are 8th worst against the QB this season (20.8 points/game) but Lock who I have at 25 should only be considered by the desperate super-flex manager. Melvin Gordon is my RB15 this week. I would be comfortable starting him, his nose for the endzone is what I like here. LA is middle of that back versus the run, and I dig the revenge angle here as well. I have Phillip Lindsay at 37 so in a pinch he is flex worthy. The Wide Receivers don’t do much for me. LA allows 32.5 points to the position which is 5th best through 15 weeks. I have Tim Patrick the highest at 41, followed by Jeudy at 49, and Hamler at 61. Even though I have them ranked that way I think I like Hamler the best. I have nothing to offer to justify that take, just a gut feel. I would prefer to sit all my Broncos WRs this week. Noah Fant on the other hand is in must start territory. I have him at TE6, and I am starting him everywhere I have him this week. I faded him last week and he popped off for 20.80 PPR points. Hopefully Fant managers survived his zero point Week 14. Chargers- Justin Herbert my QB8, Austin Ekeler my RB4, Keenan Allen my WR7, and Hunter Henry my TE8, are all must starts. Keep you eye on Keenan Allen’s practice reports this week. He was clearly limited last week with his hamstring injury and if he’s not 100% you my need to try and find a plug an play replacement. The rest of the Chargers are on my bench. If Allen sits I will consider Tyron Johnson who is currently at WR71. Mike Williams who is at WR57 is pure desperation in my opinion, dealing with a back injury. I’ll likely lower him when I update my rankings. Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Bills -7 Over Under 45.5 Bills- Josh Allen is a must start I have him at QB7. He is doing everything well and is in the league MVP conversation. Stefon Diggs if he plays is also a must start. Diggs is currently my WR5. Other Bills to consider. RBs Devin Singletary and Zach Moss are both in play. Singletary at RB28, and Moss at RB33. The one thing you can do against New England is run the football. Gabriel Davis is interesting especially if Diggs sits. He is at WR53, and start Cole Beasley he is my 24th ranked WR this week. Dawson Knox is a sit. Knox is my TE25 this week. If he scores he’s viable if he doesn’t he isn’t. He has three touchdowns this season and I am betting he doesn’t score in Week 16 against the Patriots who defend the TE extremely well. Patriots- Honestly I would prefer to sit all Pats this Week. I have Cam at QB24. I have no clue how to rank Damien Harris, James White, or Sony Michel. In the end I have them at RB95, RB35, and RB32 respectfully. I don’t expect Harris to be active so Sony and White become flex options if he sits. If he plays I want to avoid them all. The isn’t a TE option on the Patriots to consider. There hasn’t been since Rob Gronkowski retired. Dalton Keene is my TE53 and Devin Asiasi is TE58. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit AFC If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. I will be back tomorrow with my Week 16 Start and Sits NFC. Good luck in week 16, go get the W, and win you fantasy final! Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, take care.
32 minutes | a month ago
Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit
Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 117 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts. If you are reading this, chances are you are alive and kicking and preparing for Week 15, the Fantasy Semi-Finals. Congratulations. In a season full of injury and uncertainty due to the corona virus, you’ve made it, be proud of yourself. You have two more mountains to climb in order to win your league championship. Just a reminder that as the fantasy season wears down, we here at RotoHeat are just warming up. This podcast will remain and take on a more dynasty focus in the coming weeks. In addition we have the RotoHeat YouTube Channel that will continue with our livestreams and soon start rolling our our 2021 Rookie Profile videos. The team is hard at work crunching film and getting rookiedraftguide.com ready for you all. This team led by Rick Butts and Brad Menendez is putting together a rookie draft guide unlike anything seen before. Now with that said, here are my Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit recommendations, do with them what you will. Quarterback OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 08: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans looks to pass the ball in the second half against the Oakland Raiders at RingCentral Coliseum on December 08, 2019 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit Start Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans Sully’s Rank QB7 Ryan Tannehill put up two touchdowns in a win over the Jaguars last week, he finished as the QB19 with 16.48 points. I get that isn’t a mind-numbing number. He is now QB7 on the season and his QB19 finish last week was 2 points from being a top 12 QB. Tannehill has now produced multiple scores in three of his last four games, and he gets to face a Lions defense that’s allowed 29 total touchdowns and the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Mitchell Trubisky, P.J. Walker, and Alex Smith are the only QBs not to produce 20-plus points against them since Week 8. Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sully’s Rank QB8 I had Brady in this spot last week and he disappointed. I have Brady as my QB in a lot of leagues and I get that if you are still alive in your league it is despite Brady not because of him. Keep him in as your QB this week when he faces the Falcons. No defense in the league has given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the position has produced 18-plus points nine times. The over/under is 51.5, so expect a shootout. Other Starts to Consider Taysom Hill – New Orleans Saints QB11 The Saints quarterback will be an attractive option against the Chiefs. Their defense has been brutal in recent weeks, allowing 21-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of their last five games. Kansas City has also allowed multiple touchdown passes in five straight games.Jared Goff – Los Angeles Chargers QB15Goff has struggled in recent weeks failing to score more than 17 points in six of his last eight games. This week he gets the Jets who have allowed 28 touchdown passes and the second-most points to quarterbacks this season. Eight QBs have scored 19-plus fantasy points against them. Phillip Rivers – Indianapolis Colts QB16He’s on the streaming radar this week, as the Colts face a Texans defense that’s looked bad in recent weeks. Including Mitchell Trubisky’s 24.9-point outburst last week, Houston has allowed 19-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks nine times, including Rivers himself back in Week 13. Sit Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons Sully’s Rank QB20 Ryan’s numbers have been awful in recent weeks, as he’s failed to score more than 14 fantasy points since Week 9. He’s also had more interceptions (6) than touchdown passes (4) in his last four games. This week’s matchup versus the Bucs could turn into a shootout, regardless I can’t trust Ryan without Julio Jones in a 1QB format. He remains a low level starter in Super-Flex and 2QB leagues. Cam Newton – New England Patriots Sully’s Rank QB23 Cam Newton is how do I say this, terrible. I had him as a sit last week and he’s here again this week. If you have been starting Cam Newton you likely are not in your league semi-final so perhaps this is a moot point. Newton has struggled lately, scoring fewer than five fantasy points in two of his last three games. In Week 15 vs Miami you want no part of him. Their defense has allowed an average of just 10.6 fantasy points since Week 11. Last week they kept Patrick Mahomes, in check, imagine what they are going to do to Newton. Other Sits to Consider Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings QB19Cousins has been pretty startable in recent weeks, since week 6 he’s the QB10, and enters this week as QB12. This week the Vikings face the Bears. Chicago has allowed an average of just 17 points per game to quarterbacks this year. Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins QB21I had Tua here last week and he went off to the tune of 28 fantasy points. I’d beware of this week’s matchup against the Patriots. Their defense eats rookie QBs for breakfast. In addition they have held the trio of Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Jared Goff to an average 8.9 fantasy points since Week 12. Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns QB22Mayfield has been on fire in recent weeks, scoring a combined 59.5 fantasy points in his last two games. That said I’m sitting him in 1QB leagues this week. Baker faces the Giants their defense has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the QB, and only two have scored 20-plus points against them. That list includes Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Kyler Murray. Running Backs LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 13: Running back Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second half of their game at Allegiant Stadium on December 13, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit Start Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts Sully’s Rank RB6 Jonathan Taylor has taken claim to the top spot in the Colts backfield, he’s led the team in both snaps and touches in each of his last three games. Last week, Taylor had a 44 percent touch share in Las Vegas. He’ll be on the mid RB1 radar this weekend as the Colts face the Texans. Their defense has allowed 17 touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to opposing runners. Cam Akers – Los Angeles Rams Sully’s Rank RB10 Cam Akers was used in a featured role last week, as he totaled 50 snaps, a 60 percent touch share, and 21.4 fantasy points in a win over the Patriots. He gets an even better matchup this week, as the winless Jets visit. Their defense has been rather accommodating to the RB position, allowing an average of more than 24 fantasy points per game. As long as Akers continues to see a big workload, he will deliver a top-12 result this weekend. Other Starts to Consider David Montgomery – Chicago Bears RB11Montgomery has had three big games in a row, scoring four touchdowns and a combined 76.9 fantasy points. He’ll make it four straight this weekend as the Bears go up against the Vikings. Their defense has allowed 15-plus fantasy points to running backs eight times this season.Raheem Mostert / Jeff Wilson – San Francisco 49ers RB14/RB30Mostert played 40 snaps with a team-high 31 percent touch share last week, and this week’s matchup in Dallas puts him on the RB2 radar. The Cowboys have given up the second-most rushing yards to running backs, and the position has averaged nearly 25 fantasy points per game against them in 2020. Mostert is dealing with a bum ankle, so if he’s unable to go then, this recommendation will pivot to Jeffery Wilson Jr.JK Dobbins – Baltimore Ravens RB28J.K. Dobbins rushed 13 times for 53 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens’ Week 14 win over the Browns. Dobbins has double-digit carries in five of the last six games and has a rushing score in three straight. He’ll be an upside RB2 for Week 15 against the Jaguars. Sit Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons Sully’s Rank RB36 Gurley had a decent run earlier this season, but he’s simply not 100 percent at this point. That’s been evident in his usage, as Gurley has averaged just 20.5 snaps and 8.5 touches over his last two games. Ito Smith has scored more points than Gurley the past two weeks. Gurley also had a bad matchup, as Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards (59 YPG) to backs this year. Easy sit call here. Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals Sully’s Rank RB41 Bernard’s time as a useful fantasy option is over. Last week, despite a plus matchup against the Cowboys, he scored just 3.3 fantasy points while finishing behind both Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams in snaps and touch share. Fumbling the first snap of the game will do that to a guy. The Steelers have the best defense in the league against running backs, as the position has scored just eight touchdowns and averaged the fewest fantasy points. Other Sits to Consider Latavius Murray – New Orleans Saints RB39 Murray appeared to be stepping up at the right time for his fantasy managers. After Drew Brees went down, Alvin Kamara struggled and Murray produced. Kamara seems to be over his foot aliment and in the last two Murray has averaged 2.7 PPR points a game.James White – New England Patriots RB38The fact that he split touches with Damien Harris and Sony Michel certainly doesn’t’ help White. When Rex Burkhead went down for the season I had high hopes for James White. Reality is in the three games without Rex, White has a total of 20.60 PPR points.Duke Johnson – Houston Texans RB43Whether it’s David or Duke, you’ll want to avoid the Johnsons in fantasy leagues. Last week, Duke played 30 snaps in David’s absence, but he was second in touch percentage behind Buddy Howell. This week’s matchup is a brutal one, as the Colts have been tough against running backs with DL DeForest Buckner and LB Darius Leonard in the middle of their defense. Wide Receiver SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 04: Brandon Aiyuk #11 of the San Francisco 49ers leaps over Marcus Epps #22 of the Philadelphia Eagles to score a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) Start Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ersSully’s Rank WR14 Aiyuk is quietly on fire ladies and gentlemen, ranking fifth in points among WRs since Week 13. He also leads the position in targets. This week’s game in Dallas is a favorable one, their defense has allowed 16 touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers lined out wide this season. Aiyuk stays hot this week and carries you to the fantasy finals Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers Sully’s Rank WR23 Typically I prefer to start WRs that can catch. Johnson has had a rough few weeks recently. IN the end talent prevails, and I am happily starting him against the Cincinnati Bengals. Their defense has allowed 13 scores to receivers lined out wide, and Johnson beat them for nearly 24 fantasy points in Week 10. I love a motivated Johnson, in a game the Steelers need bad to get their mojo back. Other Starts to Consider TY Hilton – Indianapolis Colts WR18Since Week 12, he’s third in points among wideouts (22.9 PPG) while averaging over 16 yards per catch. He’s also dominated this week’s opponent, the Texans, scoring 15-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games against them. Houston has also allowed 18 scores and the ninth-most points to wideouts, so keep starting Hilton this week. Terry McLaurin – Washington Football Team WR25Terry McLaurin’s 7.8 combined points over the last two weeks has some managers concerned. Stick with him this week Heat Seekers. He has a get-right game this week, as the Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to receivers overall. The WFT should get Alex Smith (leg) back under center, so stick with McLaurin despite his recent failures. If Smith is out abandon ship.Corey Davis – Tennessee Titans Davis let his fantasy managers down last week in a prime match-up. He gets a great do over this week against the Lions. Their defense has struggled against receivers, allowing 12 touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points. With injuries in the defensive backfield and a unit allowing nearly 30 points per game, Detroit should be generous to Davis, A.J. Brown, and the Titans receivers. Sit Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals Sully’s Rank WR45 It’s no surprise that Boyd’s totals have taken a nosedive since the Bengals lost Joe Burrow, as he’s been held to single digits in two of his last three games. He’ll remain a risk-reward flex option at best, as the Bengals host the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh hasn’t been great against slot receivers, but their defense did hold Boyd to 41 yards in Week 10 (with Burrow under center). His shrinking ceiling makes Boyd one to avoid. D.J. Chark – Jacksonville Jaguars Sully’s Rank WR52 Chark has struggled in recent weeks, as his numbers have dropped in each of his last five games. He’s failed to put up more than 10 points in four straight contests and has averaged a 4.8 points since Week 10. The return of Gardner Minshew could be seen as a positive, Chark’s matchup in Baltimore certainly is not. Their defense has allowed just six touchdowns and 20.2 points per game to receivers out wide. Maybe just maybe people are starting to see the real DJ Chark like I have all along. Other Sits to Consider CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys WR39Lamb is going to be a superstar in the NFL at some point in his career, but the loss of Dak Prescott has crushed his potential this season. He’s failed to score more than nine fantasy points in two of his last three games, and his two targets last week were a season-low. Next up is a date with the Niners, who have allowed just 4.5 catches per game to opposing slot receivers. Jamison Crowder – New York Jets WR46Crowder had a great matchup last week, but a nagging calf injury kept him from meeting his statistical expectations. This week he takes his nagging calf injury into a brutal matchup against the Rams. Hard pass hereJakobi Meyers – New England Patriots WR55I am a rather large Jakobi Meyers fan. That said he can not be trusted this week against the Dolphins. A WR that doesn’t score, who lacks targets, and faces a tough pass defense is an easy sit. Tight End GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 01: Robert Tonyan #85 of the Green Bay Packers runs for yards during a game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on November 01, 2020 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Vikings defeated the Packers 28-22. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit Start Robert Tonyan – Green Bay Packers Sully’s Rank TE6 This one is fairly straight forward, as Tonyan has scored a touchdown and 13-plus fantasy points in each of these last four games. That streak should continue this weekend, as Tonyan faces a Carolina team that’s been generous to tight ends. Their defense has allowed six scores and an average of nearly 15 points per game to the position. Tonyan is a solid fantasy option this weekend. Eric Ebron – Pittsburgh Steelers Sully’s Rank TE8 Ebron sucked last week with just 30 yards on two catches. He had seen 29 combined targets in his previous three games, and the Steelers have thrown the ball 73.6 percent of the time in that span. The Bengals have allowed 10 or more fantasy points to tight ends eight different times this season, and just three other teams have allowed more points to the position overall, so I’d stick with Ebron. Other Starts to Consider Evan Engram – New York Giants TE10My infatuation with Evan Engram continues. He was trash last week, catching two of four targets for 18 yards in a loss to the Cardinals. I’m sticking with him this week regardless. Simply put he has a great matchup next on the slate against the Browns. Their defense has struggled against tight ends, as the position has scored nine times and averaged more than 16 points a game. Look for Engram to rebound here.Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccanners TE11Gronkowski scored a touchdown last week, but he was targeted just twice and still scored a modest 7.2 points. I do like him this week though, as he has a great matchup against the Falcons. Their defense has allowed nine touchdown catches to tight ends, not to mention the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. So while Gronkowski doesn’t see many targets, the matchup makes him a start this week. Sit Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys Sully’s Rank TE18 Schultz has continued to see a good number of targets in the Dallas pass attack, but it hasn’t resulted in huge totals. In fact, he’s failed to produce more than 8.4 fantasy points in each of his last three games. That trend is likely to continue against the 49ers, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. What’s more, just two tight ends have scored more than 10.3 fantasy points against San Francisco this year. Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles Sully’s Rank TE28 Ertz saw a mere three targets last week, and his four catches over the last two games aren’t anything to write home about. And while the addition of Jalen Hurts resulted in a win for the Eagles, it meant little to help Ertz’s fading fantasy appeal. He should remain on the sidelines this week too, as the Eagles face a Cardinals defense that’s surrendered just three touchdowns and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Other Sits to Consider Hayden Hurst – Atlanta Falcons TE20Hayden Hurst has fallen off the face of the fantasy earth recently. In Weeks 1-9 Hurst was TE5 averaging 10.68 PPR points a game. Atlanta went on bye in Week 10, and since then Hurst is averaging 3.1 points a game and has been TE44. The fact he is TE15 on the season tells us all we need to know about this position.Jordan Reed – San Francisco 49ers TE25I had hopes of fnatasy relevance for Jordan Reed once George Kittle was injured, provided Reed himself could stay healthy. Reed has been TE19 since Kittle has gone down, splits snaps and targets with Ross Dwelley and simply cannot be trusted in a week of such importance. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit. If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. I will be back next week with my Week 16 Start and Sits next week. Good luck in week 15, go get the W, and make your fantasy finals! Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, take care.
28 minutes | a month ago
Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit
Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 116 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts. Welcome to Week 14, the start of the fantasy playoffs in the majority of leagues. For the majority of the season I have let you all know that this week is just one week, there is no need to overreact, there is no need to panic. Well in Week 14, there in no tomorrow you win or you go home its a simple as that. Similar to a week ago, if you are the favorite this week the floor takes on more importance and if you are the underdog the ceiling is extremely relevant. If you are the under-dog you have to take your shot this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. As of now Christian McCaffrey seems to be trending in the wrong direction, and if you were banking on getting Joe Mixon back, you need to make alternate plans. You may be forced to react more than you usually would to the Thursday night game this week. If you come out of Thursday up big, play it a little safer and limit your risk on the weekend. If you come out of Thursday down big, its time to shoot for teh stars. A reminder for all of you that will be playing in your league’s fantasy semi-final in week 15 that, Brad Menendez and I bring you a weekly Waiver Wire video each Sunday night over on our YouTube channel. We record the video at 9:30 EST and it posts to YouTube shortly there after. Subscribing to our channel and clicking the notification bell is the best way to ensure you don’t miss it. We also have two live streams The Heat Seekers on Tuesday night and the Fantasy Inferno on Wednesday Nights. Both streams go live at 9:30 EST and are a great place to bring your start sit questions, we answer them all! Last week I expanded on my usual two starts and sits at each position, I will continue this week, its the most important week of the fantasy season. I will give the the usual two to start and sit at each position, but I will also add addition guys I would start and sit as well. So without further ado lets get into my Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit recommendations, starting with the Quarterbacks. Quarterback INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 06: Quarterback Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks to make a pass play in the first quarter of the game against the New England Patriots at SoFi Stadium on December 06, 2020 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit Start Justin Herbert – Los Angles Chargers Sully’s Rank QB5 Justin Herbert has developed into a weekly must-start Quarterback. Do not be scared off by his last two weeks. In those two weeks, he’s been the QB31 averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game. The best medicine for a struggling QB is a good match-up, and that is exactly what awaits him in Week 14. Herbert and the Chargers are facing Atlanta. The Falcons defense has allowed 20-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks eight times, and no team has given up more points to the position overall. Start Justin Herbert with confidence. Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sully’s Rank QB10 Tom Brady has been a fantasy roller-coaster this season. When he is good, he has been very good, and when he is bad, he has been quite bad. On the season he sits as QB8 averaging 20.81 points a game. He has 3 games over 30 points this season, two under 10, and another 3 under 20. Brady is set up for a big Week 14, facing the Minnesota Vikings. Their defense has allowed 19-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in five of their last seven games . The game is listed with an over/under total of 52.5, so it’ll has all the makings of a shootout. I like damn near everyone on the Bucs this week. Other Starts to Consider Taysom Hill – New Orleans Saints QB9 Averaging 23.52 points as a starter in three weeks and is QB6. The Eagles will have no answer for Hill this week.Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans QB12 QB7 on the year facing a Jags defense that is in the bottom 4 in points allowed to the QB.Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons QB13Ryan has struggled in recent weeks but the Chargers are no longer the pass defense they once were. A healthy Julio Jones makes all the difference for Ryan and this Falcons offense.Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings QB14 The Bucs are hard to run on, expect a lot of Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook in the screen game. Cousins who since week 9 is QB5 will benefit. Sit Cam Newton – New England Patriots Sully’s Rank QB19 Cam Newton is coming off a nice, 23.6-point fantasy day in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, last week. This week however, he won’t find nearly that much success against the other Los Angeles squad. The Rams have been tough on quarterbacks, allowing just one to score more than 17 fantasy points since Week 4. That includes last week’s game against Arizona, where Kyler Murray was held to a very mediocre 16.4 fantasy points. Cam has to get it done with his legs as his passing numbers have been atrocious of late. In the last two weeks combined Cam is 21/37/153 with 1 TD. Sunday should not be pretty for Cam and this Patriots offense. Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns Sully’s Rank QB26 Baker Mayfield is coming off the game of his life last week, throwing four touchdown passes and scoring nearly 30 fantasy points. Regardless he’s a tough sell this week when Baltimore comes to Cleveland. Heading into Week 13, the Ravens defense has allowed an average of fewer than 18 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks. Mayfield has failed to score more than 18 fantasy points in all but one of his five career games against the Ravens. I would expect Kevin Stefanski to lean heavily on the run this week. The longer the Browns have the football, the less Lamar Jackson does. I’m good with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this week and that’s it for the Browns. Other Sits to Consider Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins QB23Tua has struggled during his time as a starting QB in the NFL. In terms of fantasy he is averaging 9.37 points a game in parts of 5 games as a starter. The Chiefs will not make it easy on the rookie.Teddy Bridgewater – Carolina Panthers QB24Its possible that Teddy is without both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel this week. You can do better than Bridgewater in the fantasy playoffs.Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles QB27New Eagles starting QB, that is exciting. Reality is its the same offense. Add to that a date with the New Orleans Saints. Very odd choice to throw the kid to the wolves this week. Hopefully this doesn’t ruin him. Nick Mullens – San Francisco 49ers QB28Against the Washington Football Team’s front 7, he is an easy sit this week. Running Backs CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 08: David Montgomery #32 of the Chicago Bears is chased by Rakeem Nunez-Roches #56 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Soldier Field on October 08, 2020 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Bucs 20-19. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit Start David Montgomery – Chicago Bears Sully’s Rank RB7 I am going back to the David Montgomery well yet again in Week 14. Montgomery has had two huge games in a row, scoring a combined 52.4 fantasy points against the Packers and Lions. He’s in line to make it three straight solid performances as the Bears face a vulnerable Houston run defense in Week 14. The Texans have surrendered 16 total touchdowns and an average of 31.1 points a game to the running back this season. Eight different backs have scored at least 17 points against them in 2020, in Week 14 Monty will make it nine! Wayne Gallman – New York Giants Sully’s Rank RB17 Hey if it works, it works. For the third straight week I am starting Wayne Gallman. Gallman has become a valuable asset for fantasy fans over the last month-plus. He’s either rushed for 100-plus yards or scored a touchdown in each of his last six games. He’s sixth in points among running backs since Week 7. This week he faces a Cardinals defense that just surrendered 35.5 fantasy points to Cam Akers and the collective Rams backfield one week ago. Gallman has the potential as a waiver wire flier to propel your squad into the semi-finals. Keep him in your lineups! Other Starts to Consider Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins RB13Retuned to his feature role in the Dolphins offense a week ago, and should see the volume required to get him into the top 20 this week.Kenyan Drake – Arizona Cardinals RB14 Drake is starting to look like the back that I expected in 2020. Drake has been in double digits the past 3 weeks, averaging 18 points a game, good for RB6.Johnathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts RB15He’s led the team in both snaps and touches in each of his last two games. He gets the Raiders in Week 14, and their defense has allowed 16 touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs.Melvin Gordan – Denver Broncos RB25He has scored 13 or fewer fantasy points in five of his last seven games. He’s in the RB2 mix when the Broncos travel to Carolina to face the Panthers. Their defense has struggled against backs, allowing 12 touchdowns and the sixth-most points. Sit David Johnson – Houston Texans Sully’s Rank RB26 DJ returned to action last week and scored a TD. Good thing for his fantasy managers that he did. Despite that TD he still scored just 10.4 fantasy points. He only targeted just once in the passing game, as Duke Johnson played a bigger role as a receiver. This is not good for D.J., who in addition has a tough matchup against the Bears in Week 14. Their defense has allowed just three touchdowns to backs in Chicago this season. Johnson is a flex at best this weekend, and I would prefer not to to start him at all. Damien Harris – New England Patriots Sully’s Rank RB34 Damien Harris continues to see the lion’s share of the carries in New England’s backfield, that is the good news. The bad news is Sony Michel saw 11 carries last week. Harris does nothing in the passing game, seeing just five targets all season. He’s a sit for me against the Rams, who have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Harris and James White, and Sony Michel are all suited for your fantasy bench in Week 14. Other Sits to Consider Miles Sanders – Philadelphia Eagles RB21Sanders is tough to bench, but he has failed to produce double-digit fantasy points in three straight contests. He’s seen a 30 percent touch share during that time but has still averaged just 6.1 points. Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons RB29The fact that he split touches with both Ito Smith and Brian Hill last week is problematic. It seems that he’s not 100 percent due to his nagging knee problems, I want nothing to do with Todd Gurley this week. Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams RB46This backfield is becoming more and more clear with each passing week. It’s Cam Akers’ backfield. Henderson won’t see the volume to make him fnatasy relevant. Le’Veon Bell – Kansas City Chiefs RB51Bell was given a great opportunity to show he still has some juice left, last week. All he showed is that he is a much slower version of his former self and lacks burst. CEH will be back and Bell is irrelevant as a result. Wide Receiver MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 29: Robby Anderson #11 of the Carolina Panthers runs on his way to scoring a 41-yard receiving touchdown during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit Start Robby Anderson – Carolina Panthers Sully’s Rank WR15 Anderson has been up and down in recent weeks, but he’ll be in a good spot to produce against the Broncos. Their defense has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to home receivers lined out wide, and it would be even worse had Tyreek Hill’s two touchdowns counted a week ago. Anderson could also see a bigger target share if the Panthers are without D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, who are on the COVID-19 list. Corey Davis – Tennessee Titans Sully’s Rank WR23 I had Corey Davis, listed as a start last week, and he produced (11-182-1) in a loss to the Browns. I’m not sure if he will hit those totals again, but he does have another great matchup in Jacksonville. Receivers have put up 14 touchdown catches and averaged the sixth-most points against Jacksonville, including a score from Davis back in Week 2. I consider the veteran a solid flex starter in this AFC South tilt. Other Starts to Consider Amari Cooper – Dallas Cowboys WR24It’s difficult to trust many of the top offensive weapons in Dallas, but Cooper has been reliable. He’s seen a 23 percent target share from Andy Dalton heading into Week 13, and volume is king.Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals WR31I get that its hard to trust anything in the Bengals offense, since we lost Joe Burrow for the season. That said I will roll with Boyd. He had a long score last week before getting tossed and faces Dallas defense that is far from tough on the slot WR.Jamison Crowder – New York Jets WR37Crowder finished with two touchdowns in a loss to the Raiders. Seattle’s defense has struggled to contain slot receivers, allowing a league-high averages of 7.6 catches and 93.8 yards per game. Sam Darnold loves to target the slot, so Crowder will be in the flex starter conversation once again.TY Hilton – Indianapolis Colts WR44He’s scored 43.1 points in his last two games, during which time his target share has risen to 20.8 percent. Hilton will remain in the flex conversation, as he faces a Raiders defense that’s allowed 14 touchdowns to wideouts. Sit Jacobi Myers – New England Patriots Sully’s Rank WR46 Meyers has seen his totals tumble lately, as he’s failed to score more than 10.2 fantasy points in three straight games. That trend is likely to continue Thursday night, as he faces a difficult matchup against CB Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. Their defense has been tough on visiting wide receivers, allowing just 156.8 yards and no touchdown catches to the position at SoFi Stadium. Meyers (and most Patriots) are a hard fade. Christian Kirk – Arizona Cardinals Sully’s Rank WR54 Kirk had a three-week stretch earlier this season where he averaged 22.2 fantasy points. In the four games since that streak ended, he’s scored a combined 22.8 points. I’d keep him on the sidelines once again, as Kirk faces a Giants defense that’s playing at a high level. In fact, their defense has allowed just five touchdowns to receivers lined out wide this season. Kyler Murray is struggling as well, so Kirk is a tough sell for me. Other Sits to Consider Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns WR36In Tennessee last week, Landry went over 20 fantasy points and was WR14. His nice game coincided with Baker Mayfield going off in the first half. As mentioned earlier I don’t love Baker this week, I expect a heavy run game and as a result I am sitting Landry here.Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos WR47Jeudy has failed to score more than seven fantasy points in a game since Week 10. This week’s matchup in Carolina isn’t all that favorable. Their defense has allowed just three touchdowns and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to visiting receivers.Darius Slayton – New York Giants WR55Slayton has been a ghost in the Giants offense recently. Since coming off teh bye in Week 13, Slayton has combined for 2.40 PPR points in tow weeks. Hard pass this week against the Cardinals.Henry Ruggs – Las Vegas Raiders WR57Facing a tough Indianapolis Colts defense, Ruggs wont get behind teh defenders as he did vs the Jets a week ago. If he doesn’t score a long one, he is useless, and in this one he won’t. Tight End TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 04: Hunter Henry #86 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts to his team scoring a touchdown during the third quarter of a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images) Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit Start Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers Sully’s Rank TE5 Henry and the rest of the Los Angeles offense were brutal week ago, but a home matchup against Atlanta should be good for what ails it. Their defense has allowed an average of 404 total yards per game on the road, and opposing tight ends have scored nine times and averaged nearly 16 fantasy points against them overall. In what could turn into a high-scoring affair, Henry should be seen as a top-10 tight end option. Eric Ebron – Pittsburgh Steelers Sully’s Rank TE6 Ebron has been peppered with targets in recent weeks, seeing a combined 29 over his last three games. That trend should continue against the Bills in what could be a shootout at Orchard Park. Buffalo has been generous to tight ends, allowing seven touchdowns and an average of nearly 16 fantasy points per game to the position. With Ben Roethlisberger throwing the football a ton, Ebron should be seen as a top-10 option this weekend. Other Starts to Consider Noah Fant – Denver Broncos TE11Fant has finished with nine or more fantasy points in three of his last five games played with a true quarterback. A matchup against the Panthers makes him a potential top-10 play this week.Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys TE12Schultz has been a target hog in the Cowboys offense lately. He’ll be a viable streamer for fantasy managers this week, as a date with the Bengals is a favorable one. Their defense has surrendered 10 or more fantasy points eight times this season. Sit Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons Sully’s Rank TE17 Austin Hooper has failed to put up improved numbers since the Browns lost Odell Beckham Jr. to a knee injury. He’s averaged just 5.5 fantasy points in the last month and has seen just two targets in three of his last four games. Hooper also failed to produce in his first game of the year against the Ravens, scoring just 3.5 fantasy points. Unless you’re desperate, Hooper is an easy sit. Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles Sully’s Rank TE21 Ertz returned to action for the Eagles last week, but he saw just four targets and was held to a 31 yards in a loss to the Packers. He was out-targeted and out-produced by Dallas Goedert, who is still the top option in the Eagles pass attack. Ertz also has a tough matchup against the Saints, who have allowed just one tight end to score more than 3.3 fantasy points since Week 5. While Goedert remains a start, I’d sit Ertz this weekend. Other Sits to Consider Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints TE28Cook did find the end zone last week, but he produced only 28 yards and has put up zero yards twice in the last month. I’d continue to sit him in Week 14. Trey Burton – Indianapolis Colts TE30Burton has been tough to trust in recent weeks, scoring fewer than six fantasy points in three of his last five games. Las Vegas’ defense has had its share of issues, but it’s been tough on tight ends. The position has scored just one touchdown against the Raiders since Week 7. That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit. If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated. In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully. I will be back next week with my Week 15 Start and Sits next week. Good luck in week 14, go get the W, and make your fantasy semi-finals! Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, take care.
25 minutes | 5 months ago
95. Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC East
The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series. In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP (Average Draft Position) to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires. We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the NFC East. Dallas Cowboys LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 12: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys runs with the ball against John Johnson #43 of the Los Angeles Rams in the first half in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on January 12, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC East Two Players I Am Buying Ezekiel Elliott – Overall ADP 3 RB3 With an ADP of 3 overall, you are paying premium and you better not screw up. Of the top-4 RBs, Ezekiel Elliott in my opinion is the perfect blend of safety and upside. Zeke has never finished outside of the top-12 RBs. In his four seasons, his finishes have been RB2, RB12, RB5, and, RB3. He’s used as a true 3-down player, averaging 340 touches a season. His receiving volume regressed last season, but his rushing TDs hit positive regression. Zeke feels like the safest of the early fantasy running backs, and the fact that he has tested positive for and recovered from COVID-19 puts him in the running for me with the 1.01 selection. Dallas looks like a potent offense which should yield excellent results. I am buying Zeke right where I have him ranked at 3rd overall. Michael Gallup – Overall ADP 74 WR33 As I prepare for the 2020 season, I am of the opinion that the Dallas offense is going to be one of the highest scoring units in the league. A key component of this high powered offense is Michael Gallup. Michael Gallup had a breakout season a year ago. In 14 games played, he only had 7 less targets than Amari Cooper and only 82 less receiving yards. He was one of three WRs with 1,100+ receiving yards in 14 games played or less. Amari Cooper got paid and they drafted CeeDee Lamb, leading to some concern for Gallup’s volume. I have no concerns, and I am grabbing Gallup in the 6th round without question. Two Players I Am Selling Amari Cooper – Overall ADP 35 WR14 In 2019, Amari Cooper finished as WR10 with 245.6 PPR points, and his teammate Michael Gallup finished as WR22 with 212.7 points. Cooper averaged 15.4 points per game and Gallup averaged 15.2. Copper was targeted 119 times and Gallup 113. Basically, we have a WR1 WR1A situation brewing in Dallas. Throughout his career, Cooper has been wildly inconsistent. He had four touchdowns in the first four games, but also had under 50 yards in two of them. The next five games Cooper racked up 562 yards and three more touchdowns. In the final seven games, Cooper failed to reach 100 yards in any of them and only scored one touchdown. When Cooper has his down games in 2020, Prescott will simply turn to his other two talented pass catchers, not to mention his elite running back, Ezekiel Elliot. In the third round, his inconsistency is too expensive for me and I am selling. Tony Pollard – Overall ADP 130 RB48 I like Tony Pollard, and he is one the premier “handcuffs” in the game today. Pollard, like a few before him in this series, falls victim to having to find two players off of each team to sell. Simply put, at the end of the day I just don’t buy into the handcuff theory in fantasy football. I prefer the assets on my team to have stand alone value, and Pollard although talented, is very limited in this offense. In the 11th round, you could do much worse, and I suppose I would consider Pollard more if I wasn’t the Zeke owner for potential trade value alone. If Elliott misses time this take will not age well. I am betting Zeke won’t. Take the Flyer CeeDee Lamb – Overall ADP 121 WR47 The role previously held by Randall Cobb (83 targets, 5 catches, 828 yards and 3 touchdowns) is now occupied by former Oklahoma WR, and Cowboy’s first round draft choice, CeeDee Lamb. Lamb, even as a rookie, is a vastly superior WR when compared to Randall Cobb and will command more than the 13.9% target share Cobb saw a season ago. For the most part I am limiting my exposure to the rookie class in redraft this season. With the unknown looming large this offseason, it makes sense to hold the “devil you know” approach. CeeDee Lamb is an exception for me, and in the 10th round I am taking a flyer on the devil I don’t. New York Giants EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 10: Darius Slayton #86 of the New York Giants scores his second touchdown in the second quarter against Matthias Farley #41 of the New York Jets during their game at MetLife Stadium on November 10, 2019 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC East Two Players I Am Buying Darius Slayton – Overall ADP 111 WR43 Darius Slayton comes into an interesting situation in 2020. In 2019, he lead the team in snaps with 65%, 7% higher than the next closest player in Golden Tate. As the #3 Wide Receiver on the team, to lead them in snaps is something interesting and potentially valuable. When you look at the snap counts, there are equal amount of targets between Slayton, Tate and Sterling Shephard. After his 2019 showing, you would expect Slayton to up his reception percentage. This potentially makes Slayton, himself, much more valuable in his 2020 campaign. I am a firm believer in second year quarterback Daniel Jones as well in 2020. The start of the season is likely a rough one for the Giants, but after Week 4 things should improve. This potentially adds a second buying window on members of the Giants offense. For me, Slayton is a value addition in the 9th round and a WR that if healthy destroys his WR43 ADP. Daniel Jones – Overall ADP 125 QB14 If you read my 2020 Bold Predictions article, you will know that I am a fan of Daniel Jones. In 13 starts in 2019, Jones’ 16-game pace in 2019 was 384/608 for 4,032 yards, 32 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and 15 lost fumbles, with 372 rushing yards and 3 scores. That stat line equals 282.48 fantasy points in a standard scoring 4 point per passing league. Aaron Rodgers was QB10 last season with 282.38 points. With all his weapons, especially Saquon Barkley and an improved offensive line, Jones’ turnover rate will decline dramatically. Jones will have 3 solid WRs, a top tier TE, and one of the top two running backs in football. I have Jones ranked 13th currently, and as the 2020 season plays out, I plan on moving him up those rankings. That makes him an easy buy for me here. Two Players I Am Selling Evan Engram – Overall ADP 71 TE6 The biggest question when it comes to Evan Engram is, can he stay healthy? When he is healthy, he’s proven to be one of the best fantasy TEs in the game. He showed what he is capable of by finishing at TE5 in his rookie season. Engram is the one of two TEs to have a top-12 TE season as a rookie since 2010 (Rob Gronkowski being the other). Prior to his season ending injury in 2019, Engram was TE6 through nine weeks. The reality here is he has missed 19 games over his first three season and is coming back off a Lisfranc injury. Bad feet scare me in fantasy football. The other factor lingering in the back of my mind is that when this offense is healthy he is a complimentary piece. He has done the majority of his damage in fantasy when a key Giant component goes missing. I struggle with Engram, and I am a going to leverage the perceived value at TE later in the draft this year and sell a player I really like. Golden Tate – Overall 140 WR53 New York has three receivers who could all be considered the No. 1 option in Golden Tate, Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard. The odds of it being Golden Tate as he enters his age 32 season, in my opinion, are remote. If the Giants remain healthy in 2020 Tate should struggle for targets, especially when you add in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram in the passing game. Tate will likely be the last one drafted in all leagues, for a reason, and even though he showed some fantasy relevance in 2019 after returning from a 4-game suspension, I am passing on him in the 12th round and looking for a player with more upside. Take the Flyer Kaden Smith – Overall ADP 439 TE60 I do not believe in handcuffs in fantasy football, I really don’t. That said, I believe in owing Kaden Smith just in case. In his rookie season a year ago, Kaden Smith totaled 31 receptions, 268 yards, and 3 touchdowns which amounted to 75.8 PPR points and a TE35 finish. On the surface, those numbers do very little for me. When peeling back the layers of the onion, my opinion changes. Evan Engram was lost for the season with a Lisfranc injury in Week 9. Kaden Smith made his Giants debut in Week 10. From Weeks 10-17, Smith was TE10. Kaden Smith will likely not be drafted, even in the deepest of drafts, but if there is a TE that I am taking a flyer on due to pure upside, it’s Kaden Smith. Philadelphia Eagles ARLINGTON, TX – DECEMBER 09: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) looks downfield fo
25 minutes | 6 months ago
94. Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC South
The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series. In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP (Average Draft Position), to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires. We continue the 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC South. Houston Texans GLENDALE, AZ – OCTOBER 28: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football against the San Francisco 49ers during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the 49ers 18-15. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer” Two Players I Am Buying David Johnson – Overall ADP 37 RB19 In 2016, David Johnson finished as the top fantasy scorer with 407.8 PPR fantasy points, 27.8 points clear of number two, Aaron Rodgers, and 82.4 points clear of the number two RB, Ezekiel Elliott. In 2017, DJ was limited to one game due to a wrist injury. The 2018 Arizona Cardinals had the 32nd ranked offense – last in passing with 2,523 yards, and last in rushing with 1,342 yards, and Johnson in 16 games finished with 246.7 PPR points which was good enough for a RB9 finish. In 2019, Johnson struggled with injury, and in parts of 13 games he disappointed with 141.5 PPR points and a RB37 finish. Prior to his injury in Week 6, Johnson was RB5, averaging 20.2 points per game. Simply put, if he stays healthy he’s a top-12 type RB. Brandin Cooks – Overall ADP 89 WR36 Brandin Cooks has 1,000+ receiving yards in 4 of 6 seasons played. During this offseason, he was traded to Houston, and at the age of 26, he finds himself on his fourth NFL team. Cooks comes with risk of injury, and that in my opinion, is factored into his ADP. Prior to obtaining Cooks via trade, the Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins and his 150+ targets. Cooks is certainly a candidate to lead the team in targets along with fellow health risk, Will Fuller. Playing with Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, if healthy, is an amazing value in the 7th round. Two Players I Am Selling Will Fuller – Overall ADP 87 WR35 When he’s on the field, Will Fuller is a player I am buying, I love the talent. The reality is that he misses far too much time to be an asset we can depend on. We’ve seen the big play potential time and time again with Will Fuller, and his opportunity to be fantasy relevant is better than ever. DeAndre Hopkins and his 150+ targets are gone. If you’re looking for a weekly upside play in the mid-to-late rounds of your drafts, Will Fuller may be your guy. For me, he is not. Fuller has missed 23 games (36%) over four seasons, making him a nice best ball league target and nothing else. Deshaun Watson – Overall ADP 64 QB6 There are 6 QBs to “want” in fantasy football in 2020, and Deshaun Watson is certainly in the six pack. I don’t overly like listing Watson as a sell, but for the purpose of this article it makes sense. Make no mistake, Watson is a great fantasy quarterback, and that should continue in 2020 even without DeAndre Hopkins. In 2019, Watson became the 3rd QB in history to throw for 3,800 passing yards and rush for 400 yards all while scoring seven rushing TDs–joining Cam Newton & Daunte Culpepper. Watson had seven top-5 QB fantasy performances, behind only Lamar Jackson’s 11. The loss of DeAndre Hopkins means Watson lacks a true No. 1 WR on the roster. This is a regrettable sell for me, but a sell nonetheless. Take the Flyer Randall Cobb – Overall ADP 237 WR75 In 2019 as a member of the Dallas Cowboys, Randall Cobb had his best season since 2015 with 55 receptions, 828 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns–a WR44 finish after averaging 10.3 PPR points per game. 2020 will be Cobb’s age 30 season. He will be a member of an offense with WRs that struggle to stay on the field and an offense that dealt their undisputed top target to Arizona. Houston signed Cobb to a 3-year, $27 million deal with $18 million guaranteed. He will have a role in the slot in this offense and his value is too good to pass up. Indianapolis Colts INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – DECEMBER 22: Nyheim Hines #21 of the Indianapolis Colts returns a punt for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 22, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer” Two Players I Am Buying Nyheim Hines – Overall ADP 148 RB51 Nyheim Hines is a pass catching running back, and a very serviceable one. As a ball carrier however, he is not a RB you should look to roster. He is a member of an Indianapolis Colts backfield that has an established ball carrier in Marlon Mack and a bright, new, shiny toy in Jonathan Taylor via the draft. Clearly Hines has a defined role in this offense, and the good news is it is as a pass catcher. Hines very likely has struck fantasy gold in terms of his quarterback. Philip Rivers has proven over the course of his 16 year career to frequently target his running backs. Rivers’ play tendencies dramatically elevated the fantasy value of players like Austin Ekeler and Danny Woodhead, and I am buying that Hines will benefit as well. Jack Doyle – Overall ADP 149 TE17 Similar to Nyheim Hines, Jack Doyle benefits from his new QB. Another benefit is he won’t be competing with Eric Ebron anymore for targets. Philip Rivers has a storied history of feeding guys like Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. Doyle is not as athletically gifted as those players, but he will be on the field and offers a nice option for Rivers to dump the ball off. In this offense he should have little difficulty surpassing TE17 if he remains healthy. Two Players I Am Selling TY Hilton – Overall ADP 53 WR24 In addition to those already mentioned, one of the players that should benefit from Rivers is TY Hilton. The reality is that everyone in this offense should benefit in the passing game from the switch from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers, however, is also no longer in his prime, and my concern is that the ball will be spread around a lot and the run game will have a big role in this offense. This take could burn me. TY Hilton has 1,000+ receiving yards in 5 of 8 seasons. In 2014, with 155 targets he led the league in receiving with 1,448 yards. Just two years ago, he had 1,270 receiving yards in only 14 games. TY is 30 years old and comes with injury concerns. The Colts in the past two seasons have added Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell for a reason. Hilton is a WR that you should own, no doubt, he is just not a WR at this stage of his career I see drafting in round 5. Jonathan Taylor – Overall 45 RB22 Jonathan Taylor was the third running back taken in this year’s draft, only behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift. Taylor enjoyed an outstanding three years at Wisconsin, winning the Doak Walker award, which is given to the nation’s best collegiate running back, in back-to-back years in 2018 and 2019. With Wisconsin, he posted 6,174 rushing yards and 50 TDs. The gamble with drafting Taylor is how the unusual off-season and the pandemic has impacted our exposure to these rookies. We will not get our typical preseason look in 2020. Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines will certainly be involved, especially early in the season. JT is a back I want a lot of in Dynasty, but being drafted as a top-24 RB in redraft, I am out. Take the Flyer Philip Rivers – Overall ADP 169 QB23 I really like Philip Rivers this season–probably more than I should. It will be strange watching him on the field without a lighting bolt on his helmet. After 16 seasons and 224 straight starts with the Chargers organization, Rivers signed a one year deal as Frank Reich’s QB in Indianapolis. As a result of that signing, he finds himself behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Last year, Rivers attempted the 7th most passes of 20+ yards in the league and only completed 27-of-79 attempts, nine of which were picked off. Behind this offensive line and with the talent in this offense and time to read a defense, Rivers will dramatically reduce his 20 interceptions from a year ago. He’s a legit streamable QB, and a QB I have ranked at 21. With his ADP, he is the type of QB I will wait to take a flyer on. Jacksonville Jaguars JACKSONVILLE, FL – NOVEMBER 18: Leonard Fournette #27 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs with the ball during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at TIAA Bank Field on November 18, 2018 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images) 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer” Two Players I Am Buying Leonard Fournette – Overall ADP 29 RB14 In 2019, Fournette appeared in 15 games, quieting the noise from the dynasty community that he’s an injury prone running back. Fournette finished 2019 as the 6th highest scoring back in PPR with 259.4 points. His 341 touches were 37 more than his rookie season, and they were second only to Christian McCaffrey’s 403. Incredibly, Fournette only scored three touchdowns on those 341 touches. He found the end zone once for every 113.67 touches in 2019. Fournette is in no
24 minutes | 6 months ago
93. Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC South
The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series. In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires. We continue the 2020 “Buy Sell Take the Flyer” Series with the NFC South. Atlanta Falcons TAMPA, FL – DECEMBER 30: Calvin Ridley #18 of the Atlanta Falcons runs after catching a pass during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Tampa, Florida. The Falcons won 34-32. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC South Two Players I Am Buying Calvin Ridley – Overall ADP 44 WR17 Calvin Ridley finished 2019 with 63 catches on 93 targets for 866 yards and 7 touchdowns. In his rookie season, Ridley finished with 64 catches on 92 targets for 821 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2018, he played in all 16 games and in 2019 he was limited to 13. The Dynasty community has long talked about the third-year breakout WR. Ridley has all the markings of being just that. He finished both 2018 and 2019 as WR22 in PPR scoring. 195.9 points in ’18 followed by 197 in ’19. Ridley plays in an offense that likes to throw the football. The Atlanta Falcons have ranked 5th and 1st in pass attempts in Ridley’s first two seasons, and that is a trend I would not expect to decrease very much in 2020. I have Ridley ranked 15th in my WR PPR rankings and I am happily taking him towards the back end of round 3 in my drafts. Matt Ryan – Overall ADP 85 QB9 Matt Ryan has finished as a top-12 scoring Quarterback 6 times, including two top 2 finishes and a QB11 finish a year ago. Ryan enters 2020 in position to repeat his top 12 ways. He has two top weapons returning in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, 3rd year WR Russell Gage showed promise late in 2019, and the Falcons added RB Todd Gurley to the backfield. Atlanta led the league in pass attempts in 2019 with 684 and were 5th in 2018 with 617. Expect the Falcons to continue to throw and throw often in 2020. As as a result, I have Matt Ryan ranked 7th in my QB rankings and a buy at his current ADP. Two Players I Am Selling Hayden Hurst – Overall ADP 106 TE11 The Falcons allowed Austin Hooper to walk via free agency and traded for Hayden Hurst. Hurst enters an offense with targets-a-plenty. Hooper was targeted 97 times in 2019, (in 13 games) and 88 times in 2018. Combined in those two seasons, Hooper totaled 146 catches, 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Falcons did nothing in the draft to address tight end, so you expect Hurst to be first in line to get most of the targets thrown to the tight ends in that offense. I do not expect Hurst to be as productive as Hooper, but is 60% as productive really too much to ask? If Hooper can stay healthy, he should flirt with top 12-15 TE status. Hurst is currently my 13th ranked TE making him sell in comparison to his current ADP of 11. Todd Gurley – Overall ADP 26 RB14 Todd Gurley finished the 2019 season with 857 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns to go along with 31 receptions for 207 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. He appeared in 15 games, and his 1,064 total yards were the lowest of his 5 year career. His 254 touches were the lowest since his 250 in his rookie season. He finished 2019 as RB14 with 219.4 PPR points. On March 19, 2020, Gurley was released by the Rams, and signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons on April 6, 2020. As far as landing spots go, the Falcons are about as good as it gets for Gurley. He joins a potent offense with minimal competition for touches. There’s certainly some optimism here for fantasy purposes. It’s a homecoming for Gurley, and he’s motivated on a one-year deal. Gurley is the unquestioned starter for a historically strong Atlanta offense and will see all the volume his body can handle. I have him ranked 15th in my RB rankings, making him a difficult sell here. Take the Flyer Russell Gage – Overall ADP 322 WR95 Russell Gage was 6th round selection out of LSU in 2018. He has compiled 55 catches 509 yards and 1 TD in parts of two seasons in Atlanta. Mohammad Sanu was dealt to the Patriots prior to Week 8 last year, and at that time Gage had 11 receptions for 102 yards. After the trade, Gage finished the season with 38 catches 344 yards and a TD. Gage was WR120 before the trade and WR49 after it. In addition, Austin Hooper missed Weeks 11-13 a year ago. In those three games, Gage saw 23 targets, had 15 grabs for 145 yards, and the only TD of his career. It’s a small sample size, but over 16 games at that pace it’s 80/773/5. In those three games, Gage was WR27; that 16 game pace, by the way, would land him as WR32. Hooper is gone and as much as I dig Hayden Hurst, he’s not Austin Hooper. Gage showed last year that he’s going to be a part of this offense and that he can be relied upon to contribute. That makes him worth the flyer here. Carolina Panthers NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 30: D.J. Moore #12 of the Carolina Panthers runs with the ball during the first half against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on December 30, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC South Two Players I Am Buying D.J. Moore – Overall ADP 30 WR10 In 15 games a season ago, D.J. Moore posted 230.5 PPR points and a WR16 finish. It’s impressive considering that the majority of his production came with below average replacement Quarterback play. In 2018, Moore finished as WR36 with 157 PPR points. With Teddy Bridgewater in place as the Panthers Quarterback, things are looking up for Moore in 2020. Bridgewater is not an air yards kind of QB and Moore isn’t an air yards kind of WR. In 2019, Moore ran a slant route 27% of the time–the most of any route on his tree. He was successful on those routes 81.1% of the time. If Moore is targeted as much as he was last season (135), he is in line for a monster season. Moore specializes in yards after the catch, and new Panther’s OC Joe Brady knows Bridgewater and his strengths and should tailor make this offense to benefit those running routes close to the quarterback. 2020 is going to be the first of many seasons that D.J. Moore makes his way into the top-12 WRs. I have him ranked 8th in my WR rankings and I am buying him at his current ADP. Christian McCaffrey – Overall ADP 1 RB 1 Christian McCaffrey was the NFL’s best fantasy player in PPR leagues after having the second-best fantasy season in NFL history. Throughout the season, McCaffrey accumulated 471.2 fantasy points, 1,387 rushing yards, 1,005 receiving yards, and 19 total touchdowns. He also became the third player in NFL history to record 1,000+ receiving and 1,000+ rushing yards in the same year. As great as Christian McCaffrey is, regression in 2020 is almost certain. After all, he is coming off the second best fantasy season in league history. His role in the passing game likely remains unchanged. Teddy Bridgewater, his new Quarterback, thrives on throws close to the line of scrimmage. Regression or no regression, I recently moved CMC up to #1 in my running backs rankings and into first overall. If you are sitting on the clock with the first overall selection in your draft, do not over think it–take CMC. Two Players I Am Selling Robby Anderson – Overall ADP 148 WR55 Robby Anderson finished last season as WR40 with 162.3 PPR points. 2019 was the final season of Anderson’s contract with the New York Jets, and fantasy managers welcomed a new team for their WR. That new team is the Carolina Panthers. Carolina was not the landing spot most would have picked for Anderson. Anderson goes from being pretty much the top receiving weapon the Jets had for three seasons to playing 3rd fiddle in Carolina. The Panthers offense will employ plenty of multi-WR sets, so Anderson will still have the opportunity to be a field-stretcher while D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey work the short routes. It will be interesting to see how the competition between Anderson and Curtis Samuel plays out for the “deep-threat” role and if Teddy Bridgewater can make the necessary throws. Even on a better offense than what he dealt with in New York, it may be tough for Robby to be a consistent fantasy producer in 2020. I am not certain how this season works out for Anderson, and I would prefer that I don’t find out with him on my roster. Curtis Samuel – Overall ADP 168 WR 61 Curtis Samuel was one of the most hyped WRs entering draft season in 2019. He didn’t deliver on the hype, but considering the injury to Cam Newton and the replacement level quarterback play he was saddled with all last season, his WR36 finish with 171.7 PPR points wasn’t that bad. There’s a ton of turnover in Carolina with a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater). D.J. Moore and CMC are the clear top targets on the offense while Samuel and newly signed Robby Anderson should fight for next up. Samuel is going very late in fantasy drafts, but not late enough for me. I am passing on the receiver that is very well the 4th or 5th passing
25 minutes | 6 months ago
92. Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC North
The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series. In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires. We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC North. Baltimore Ravens BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 03: Running back Mark Ingram II #21 of the Baltimore Ravens rushes past linebacker Elandon Roberts #52 of the New England Patriots during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on November 3, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC North Two Players I Am Buying Mark Ingram – Overall ADP 56 RB25 Mark Ingram surprised last season–his first in a Ravens uniform. He finished the season as RB11 with 242.5 PPR points. Ingram benefited from being in a backfield behind all-world QB Lamar Jackson. He leveraged 15 total touchdowns to return to the top-12 at RB for the first time since his 2017 RB6 season. Ingram scored a touchdown last season on every 15 touches. That TD pace seems impossible for Ingram to repeat, and naturally he will regress as a result. Ingram will also have some increased competition for touches this season. The Ravens spent a 2nd round pick on J.K. Dobbins. I do believe that Ingram remains the top dog in Baltimore and that there is room for both Ingram and Dobbins to touch the football. I can not imagine the Ravens wanting Lamar Jackson running as often as he did a year ago, and the Ravens last season ran a league-high 16.9% out of their plays in 22 personnel (2 running backs, 2 tight ends, 1 wide receiver). Dobbins will have his day, but in redraft formats Mark Ingram remains the running back I target off the Baltimore Ravens. Marquise Brown – Overall ADP 70 WR30 Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was the first wide receiver selected in the 2019 NFL Draft. The Ravens run heavy offense hurts his overall ceiling, but in his rookie season he showed his boom potential on any given week finishing with 7 TDs in 14 games. Brown suffered an ankle sprain in Week 5, and only four times did he play in more than 70% of snaps in a game. If he’s healthy, he’s the clear top WR target in this Ravens offense. His boom/bust combo of a 2019 season concerns me as does his injury history, but I do feel the Ravens go to the air more in 2020, and Hollywood will lead the way. This all adds up to Brown beating his ADP of WR30 in his sophomore season. Two Players I Am Selling Lamar Jackson Overall ADP 21 QB1 Lamar Jackson was tremendous last season, blowing away every other fantasy QB by nearly 100 points. His 9.0 TD-rate is going to decline considerably, as has been the case for every other QB in NFL history to achieve such a mark. In addition, his rushing totals will decrease as well. With all that said, he will still be the a top 3 quarterback, at worst, in 2020 if healthy. Listing the 2019 NFL MVP as a sell may seem odd. This take should not be interpreted as a dislike of Lamar Jackson, as it’s quite the opposite–I love Lamar Jackson. What I dislike is his ADP. The reality is you should not be taking a QB this high in your drafts regardless of who it is; the opportunity cost is too high. Grab a Running Back or Wide Receiver in round two, as there is plenty of time to grab a viable starting QB in the later rounds. Mark Andrews – Overall ADP 43 TE4 If you have read the first few articles in the “2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series, you will know that I am not a fan of drafting a TE early. Along with his quarterback, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews had a breakout season in 2019. He finished the season as one of only 3 players with at least 10 receiving touchdowns. Andrews led the team in 2019 with 98 targets, which was 5th most among TEs, and likely should this season as well, now that Hayden Hurst is off to the Atlanta Falcons. Andrews is my 3rd ranked TE this season, and I have no problem with his ADP being TE4. It’s the requirement of a 4th round draft pick to obtain him that I struggle with. Currently after Andrews, I see Calvin Ridley (44), Courtland Sutton (46), Robert Woods (47), and Keenan Allen (48). I’m a huge Mark Andrews fan, but I am talking all 4 of those WRs ahead of him. Take the Flyer J.K. Dobbins – Overall ADP 92 RB37 As mentioned above, I do believe this year Mark Ingram continues to lead the Ravens backfield. There is, however, no denying that J.K. Dobbins landed in a prime spot for fantasy. His talent and draft capital will get him on the field, and if Mark Ingram misses time, watch out, as he has top-12 RB upside. Cleveland Browns CLEVELAND, OH – DECEMBER 8: Kareem Hunt #27 of the Cleveland Browns runs with the ball during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at FirstEnergy Stadium on December 8, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC North Two Players I Am Buying Kareem Hunt – Overall ADP 63 RB27 Kareem Hunt was suspended after Week 11 of the 2018 season. Shortly after his suspension, the Kansas City Chiefs announced the release of the second year running back. At the time of his release, Hunt was RB6 in PPR scoring, averaging over 20 points per game. The prior season he finished as RB3. Hunt’s ability has never been in question, it’s his off-field behavior that is the concern. Hunt had an immediate impact on the Browns offense after serving his eight game suspension last season. He instantly became a target machine, with 44 targets in eight games. Hunt’s role with the new offensive scheme is unknown. In Kevin Stefanski’s run-heavy offense, however, there is likely enough work to satisfy both the Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb fantasy manager. In 2019, Hunt was RB17 from Weeks 10-17, Nick Chubb was RB15. I see Hunt as top-24 RB in 2020, and if Nick Chubb is to miss any time, Hunt should easily jump back into the top-12 RB conversation. Jarvis Landry – Overall ADP 69 WR29 All Jarvis Landry has done throughout his 6 year career is beat his ADP. In his rookie season, Landry had an ADP of 60 and finished as WR36 (the worst season of his career). In the five seasons that followed his rookie campaign, his ADP was 27, 18, 19, 19, and 28. His PPR fantasy finish in those seasons; 9, 13, 5, 18, and 12. Call me crazy, but I will be buying Landry to beat his ADP once again in 2020. In the first year with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry together in Cleveland, Jarvis had 138 targets, set a career high in receiving yards with 1,174, and from Week 9 on, was WR3 overall. Entering his age 27 season, he’s still an extremely reliable receiver. Landry’s health, however, is a concern. He underwent offseason hip surgery and may not be ready to start the season. If Landry does indeed miss some time, he will be hard pressed to deliver a positive return on his ADP of WR29. Two Players I am selling Odell Beckham Jr. – Overall ADP 31 WR11 I am a Odell Beckham Jr. truther and I am proud of it. Listing OBJ as a player I am selling isn’t easy. He is an elite talent with at least 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and 10 TDs from 2014-2016. Injuries have plagued OBJ, and his first season with the Browns was not a very good one by his standards. He finished as WR25 with 201.3 PPR points. The Browns offense led by Baker Mayfield was a mess last season, and they finished in the bottom half of the league in points scored. Beckham dealt with groin and hip pain the entire season and it clearly limited his ability to gain the separation he has been know for throughout his career. He is nearly 8 months removed from surgery, and OBJ is on track for a bounce back campaign in 2020. Kevin Stefanski brings with him to Cleveland his run heavy offense from Minnesota, and as a result it should limit Beckham’s usual heavy workload. Regardless, I do see Beckham bouncing back in 2020 and having a productive season. I have him at WR15, slightly behind his WR11 ADP. As a result, he is a sell here. Nick Chubb – Overall ADP 18 RB13 Nick Chubb fell just short of taking home the rushing title in 2019 and nearly hit 1,500 rushing yards. Heading into 2020 though, he will carry a tag of risk/reward. The talent of Chubb is undeniable, the team made major upgrades to the offensive line, and to top it off they brought in a coach with a run-heavy resume. What can’t be ignored is Kareem Hunt. Chubb saw a drop of about 4 touches per game once Hunt returned from his suspension. It’s a total unknown how the new coaching staff will split the workload between the two backs. What we do know is Chubb was RB6 in Weeks 1-9 without Kareem Hunt, and RB15 from Weeks 10-17 with Hunt. I am high on both backs and see them both delivering a RB2 type season. RB13, however, is a little more than I am willing to pay for Nick Chubb. Take the Flyer Austin Hooper – Overall ADP 111 TE12 Austin Hooper left the Atlanta Falcons offense, an offense in which he has averaged 92.5 targets, 73 catches, 723 yards and 5 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He arrives in Cleveland as the league’s highest paid TE, and he has plenty of competition for targets. Exceeding expectations in a pass heavy Matt Ryan lead offense is one thing, but doing the same in a run hea
25 minutes | 6 months ago
91. Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC North
The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series. In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires. We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the NFC North. Chicago Bears EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 02: Tarik Cohen #29 of the Chicago Bears returns a punt during the first quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 02, 2018 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC North Two Players I Am Buying Tarik Cohen – Overall ADP 87 RB35 Regression hit Tarik Cohen in a big, bad way in 2019. His touches dropped by just under two a game, and his touchdowns regressed from eight down to three. In addition to the decrease in touches was the decrease in productivity. He dropped to 3.3 YPC, and far more importantly his receiving plummeted from 10.2 yards per reception to 5.8. The 10.2 in 2019 wasn’t going to be repeated, but the near 50% drop in productivity was certainly more than expected. Cohen still projects to be a nice addition to the offense and is a nice back to target in PPR. Finding a RB that has been targeted 195 times in the past two seasons in the 7th round is great value. I expect the Bears offense to be more productive as a whole in 2020. Chicago was 25th in passing yards in 2019 compared to 21st in 2018, and 29th in points scored compared to 9th in 2018. Cohen likely will not give you the RB11 season he did in 2018, but I do expect him to better the RB27 a year ago and his ADP of RB35. Anthony Miller – Overall ADP 135 WR50 Anthony Miller has a ton of talent and a great amount of work ethic. Will can defeat skill, and when combined good things tend to happen. The problem Miller encountered last season was that he was slowed by both injury and a Mitch Trubisky problem. In 2020, if he remains healthy, year three has all the makings of a breakout season. In his rookie season, while playing through a shoulder injury the entire year, Miller finished as WR60 with 7 touchdowns. In 2019, he struggled the majority of the season and finished as WR56, but it was the finish to his season that has me this optimistic. From Weeks 12-16, Miller was WR17 and averaging 15.6 PPR points a game. With (hopefully) improved quarterback play from Nick Foles, Miller is a complete steal at his ADP of WR54. The upside of Anthony Miller in an improved Chicago offense is impossible to pass up. Two Players I Am Selling Allen Robinson – Overall ADP 29 WR9 In 2019, Allen Robinson was once again an elite WR. Robinson finished the year as WR8 with 254.9 PPR points. His 154 targets and his 98 receptions were both career highs. His 1,147 yards and 7 touchdowns were second only to his 1,400 yard 14 touchdown 2015 season. Robinson will still just be 27 years old when the season starts. The Nick Foles / Mitch Trubisky combo at QB is not ideal, but Robinson has proven throughout his career that bad QB play has little effect on his ability to produce. Listing Robinson as a sell is not easy, as this is a WR that I love and want on all of my fantasy rosters. The only problem here is his ADP of 29. I recently updated my redraft rankings and I have Allen Robinson at 15, and I am by far the highest of the RotoHeat team. Robinson is a consensus WR24 in our redraft rankings, and for that reason alone I have to sell him at his WR9 value. David Montgomery – Overall ADP 54 RB24 The opportunity for Montgomery was a little touch and go to start the season, but by Week 8 he was the go-to RB for the Bears. It didn’t really turn into consistent fantasy points as he finished outside of the top-30 in 11 games. There is reason for optimism heading into 2020. The Bears didn’t bring in anyone to challenge Monty for his starting position. It certainly could be more of the same for him, but scooping up an RB that will touch the ball 250+ times in the middle rounds could be a win. He is a sell for me simply based on the fact that I see an improvement in the Bears passing attack and more Tarik Cohen than we did a year ago. Take the Flyer Nick Foles – Overall ADP 291 QB37 The main reason I feel the Bears are a better offense in 2020 than they were in 2019 is the addition of Quarterback Nick Foles. To be clear, I do not see Foles as a top performing QB, but when compared to the man his is likely to replace, Nick Foles is an upgrade on Mitchell Trubisky. In 2013, Nick Foles had a great season. In 11 games he threw for 256 yards per game with 26 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He finished that season as QB12 and was QB3 in points per game with 20.01. That season, Bill Lazor was the Eagles QB coach. Lazor is now the Offensive Coordinator in Chicago. Do I expect a top 12 season from Foles? No, not at all, but I certainly expect him to be better than QB37 in a 32 team league. Detroit Lions DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 31: Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr. (11) jones off the field during a NFL football game between Detroit and Green Bay on December 31, 2017, at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC North Two Players I Am Buying Marvin Jones – Overall ADP 93 WR37 When you look up undervalued in the Fantasy Football dictionary, you’ll find a picture of Marvin Jones Jr. Playing in the shadow of Kenny Golladay, Jones continues to fly under the radar and maintain productivity each and every year. If Matthew Stafford and Jones can stay healthy, Jones will be a high-value WR2 / WR3 type of player for your fantasy team. His current WR37 ADP value makes Jones a WR that I am buying with the utmost confidence. Matthew Stafford – Overall ADP 107 QB13 Matthew Stafford entered 2019 going undrafted in the majority of 1QB leagues. Prior to a season-ending back injury, Stafford was QB9 through 8 games and was on pace for the best statistical season of his career. Through his first 8 games, Stafford was averaging 21.45 points per game in 4pt passing TD leagues (8th best). A year ago, the Lions were a bad football team with a weak defense. Entering 2020, nothing has really changed. He is a solid value as the 13th ranked QB. With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson available around the end zone, we can realistically pencil him in for a 30+ TD season, provided he remains healthy in 2020. Two Players I Am Selling D’Andre Swift – Overall ADP 61 RB26 Swift was widely regarded as the best, or at worst, 2nd best running back in the draft. Detroit selected him early in the 2nd round which is not an optimal landing spot for fantasy. The Lions will likely use a true committee approach, limiting Swift’s upside and making it nearly impossible to project which games he will actually produce. He is a very good player with upside, but a lot of things will need to go his way to see that upside. At RB26 in a season that almost certainly starts slow for the rookie, he’s a rather easy sell. T.J. Hockenson – Overall ADP 126 67 TE14 In 2019, T.J. Hockenson finished his rookie season as TE 31 with 87.1 fantasy points. He exploded in Week 1 against the Cardinals, though what we know now that we didn’t know then was the Arizona Cardinals were the “free space” on the bingo fantasy card for TEs in 2019. He followed his impressive debut by averaging 18 yards a game in the next 6 weeks. It’s hard to depend on a rookie TE in fantasy, and in 2019, Hockenson was no different. That said, he battled injury in year one and played half the season without Matthew Stafford. Hock certainly has the ability to put up big fantasy numbers, but he likely needs another season or two before he’s ready for the top 12. I have Hockenson ranked 16th in my 2020 Redraft Tight End Rankings, and as a result I am selling here. Take the Flyer Kerryon Johnson – Overall ADP 100 RB41 It seems like Kerryon Johnson’s career is quickly moving from “this is the year” to “what could have been.” Kerryon was unable to stay on the field yet again and it was compounded by a massive decrease in efficiency. The addition of D’Andre Swift in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL draft would seem to indicate that the Lions have seen enough of KJ as their top ball carrier. Then again, this is a football team that either can not or will not commit to a running back. It is very possible with a reduced workload that Johnson can stay healthy and contribute over the full season. In 14 career starts spread across the past two seasons, Johnson has averaged 11.27 PPR points a game. His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield alone makes him worth a flyer with the 100th pick of your draft. Green Bay Packers PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 30: AJ Dillon #2 of the Boston College Eagles gets tackled by Damar Hamlin #3 of the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first quarter at Heinz Field on November 30, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC North Two Players I Am Buying A.J. Dillon – Overall ADP 174 RB55 In a very confusing draft in 2020, the Green Bay Packers select
29 minutes | 6 months ago
90. Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West
The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series. In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires. We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC West. Denver Broncos DENVER, CO – DECEMBER 29: Quarterback Drew Lock #3 of the Denver Broncos throws a pass against the Oakland Raiders during the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on December 29, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Raiders 16-15. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West Two Players I Am Buying Drew Lock – Overall ADP 166 QB22 Drew Lock was my number two ranked rookie QB a year ago. Needless to say I am a believer. The future is now in Denver as Lock took the reins of the starting job over the last five weeks of the season. While there is some obvious growing room, he looked more than capable as a starter showing some chemistry with Courtland Sutton. Entering 2020, the Broncos have added weapons for their 2nd year QB. Lock has some hype surrounding his fantasy outlook this year if free-agent signing Melvin Gordon, rookies Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler, as well as TE Noah Fant help him take a step forward. The biggest add this offseason to me is Pat Shurmur as the team’s Offensive Coordinator. Shurmur got production out of rookie Daniel Jones a year ago and recently led QBs Sam Bradford and Case Keenum to career best seasons. This could be a top-half offense if things break right, and with an ADP listing Lock as undrafted I will be buying all day long. Jerry Jeudy – Overall ADP 112 WR43 The Broncos added Jerry Jeudy with the 15th selection in the recent NFL draft. Even with the talented Courtland Sutton on the roster, the Broncos couldn’t resist picking Jeudy. While I am concerned with the rookie class in general getting off to a slow start, Jeudy should see plenty of snaps right out of the gate. Knowing Shurmur’s offense and the opportunity it provides multiple WRs, the vision of Sutton and Jeudy being Diggs and Thielen 2.0 is too tantalizing to pass up. In the ninth round, this is an easy buy for me. Two Players I Am Selling Courtland Sutton – Overall ADP 47 WR19 This annual exercise always paints me into a corner where I have to label a player I like a lot as a sell. That is exactly what is happening here in terms of Courtland Sutton. In 2019, Sutton topped 1,100 yards on 124 targets and finished as WR19, matching his current ADP. With the maturation of TE Noah Fant and the additions of Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Melvin Gordon, Sutton should be be less of a focus in this offense. I see Sutton sliding back into the back of WR2 country this season, and as a result he is a reluctant sell. Melvin Gordon – Overall ADP 37 RB19 In 2019, after an ill-advised holdout, Melvin Gordon had his worst statistical season since his rookie year. That didn’t stop his former division rival Broncos from offering Gordon a 2-year deal. Gordon will compete for snaps with Phillip Lindsay. It’s not quite clear how the team plans to split the work between the two, but I can’t imagine the Broncos would commit financially to Gordon and not use him as the lead running back. With a completely reworked and loaded offense, the Broncos have a chance to put up plenty of points and that will directly impact Gordon. In the end, I believe that Gordon delivers a back end RB2 season, and at RB19 being drafted in the beginning of the 4th round I am going to sell. Take the Flyer KJ Hamler – Overall ADP 343 WR108 Hamler is a vertical slot threat out of Penn State who some compare to T.Y. Hilton. He has track-like speed but also a history of drops. Likely a complementary player, Hamler will join Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy as receivers in Denver. Additionally, many are expecting a second-year leap from tight end Noah Fant. The arrow is pointing up on this Drew Lock led offense. With an ADP of 343, Hamler is almost certainly not getting drafted in your leagues, and by listing him as my take flyer, I am not suggesting he should be. Hamler is a player to keep an eye on and a WR to add off your waiver wire in a plus match up. Kansas City Chiefs KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 20: Damien Williams #26 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball on his way to scoring a 23-yard receiving touchdown in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots during the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 20, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West Two Players I Am Buying Sammy Watkins – Overall ADP 151 WR56 Sammy Watkins started off the 2019 season with a bang. In Week One he secured nine of his eleven targets for 198 yards and three touchdowns. His 46.8 PPR points not surprisingly led all WRs. That stat line also turned out to be 100% of his receiving TDs on the season and nearly 30% of his receiving yards. Watkins had 34% of this 2019 fantasy production in one week. The never-ending narrative when it comes to Watkins is “if he could just stay healthy”. In 2019, Watkins for the most part was, as he appeared in 14 of the Chiefs 16 games. Watkins is likely pushed for playing time in 2020 by Mecole Hardman, and Sammy’s days of being a weekly starter when healthy are likely over. Watkins disappointment of a 2019 season saw him land at WR50 on the season. He is a value at WR56 and one I am happy to buy. Anytime I can get a relevant component of a Patrick Mahomes led offense in the 13th round, I will be all over it. Mecole Hardman – Overall ADP 128 WR49 After day one of the 2019 NFL Draft it appeared that Tyreek Hill was looking at a certain suspension. The next day, the Chiefs selected Mecole Hardman in the 2nd Round. It turned out that it was injury and not suspension that kept Tyreek Hill off the field in 2019. Hardman played less than half the team’s snaps on the season. It’s inevitable that he’ll be more involved in the offense as a pure wide receiver after an impressive rookie season. He’s currently ranked #54 in the RotoHeat consensus rankings, making him a WR5 in fantasy leagues. At his current price tag, Hardman makes for an intriguing sleeper candidate as he could easily surpass his current ranking while playing with the best quarterback in the NFL. I am betting that he does. Two Players I Am Selling Travis Kelce – Overall ADP 20 TE1 When it comes to Travis Kelce, it’s been four straight seasons as the top scoring TE in Fantasy Football. In these four seasons, Kelce has averaged 251.35 PPR points. Selling Travis Kelce comes down to one thing and one thing alone, and that is his ADP. Similar to my thoughts on San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle that I referred to in my Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer -NFC West article, I am not willing to spend my second round selection on a TE. I will be targeting a running back that has fallen in the draft or a wide receiver that can deliver a top 12 season instead. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Overall ADP 28 RB16 Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 1,414 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2019 and caught 55 passes for 453 yards and 1 more score. He doubled his stats from his first two years in LSU’s offensive game plan. Kansas City drafted Edwards-Helaire with the last pick in the first round. With that selection, CEH finds himself in one of the most dominant offenses in the NFL. In Kansas City, he joins Damien Williams in the backfield and will start off splitting carries with Williams. The team had free range to select any RB they wanted in the draft and they chose CEH. He could shape up to be a risky fantasy pick simply because of his ADP. CEH will become the starter of this team and fantasy points will flow when that happens. The gamble for drafting him is the unknown of whether the transition is Week 1 or Week 8 or later? With the uncertainty that this Covid-19 off-season presents, I am selling CEH at RB16. Take the Flyer Darwin Thompson – Overall ADP 358 RB92 With the somewhat surprising news that Damien Williams is opting out of the 2020 season, it puts RB Darwin Thompson back on the fantasy relevance radar. Thompson was incredibly hyped up last year, but he was never given the opportunity. The Chiefs added LeSean McCoy in training camp and the rookie ended his season 46 touches, 171 total yards and a touchdown. This one is simple for me. The Chiefs ran the ball 375 times last season, and they targeted their RBs 107 times. CEH is not going to have 482 touches in his rookie season, and until the Chiefs bring someone else in, I am considering Thompson the #2 back on this team. The backup RB in KC is a back to consider owing in fantasy and with an ADP of RB92 that is sure to climb rapidly in the next month her worth the flyer all day long. Las Vegas Raiders TUSCALOOSA, AL – SEPTEMBER 21: Henry Ruggs III #11 of the Alabama Crimson Tide runs for a 45-yard touchdown in the first quarter after catching a pass behind D.Q. Thomas #12 of the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 21, 2019 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West Two Players I Am Buying Henry Ruggs
28 minutes | 6 months ago
89. Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC West
Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC West The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled; Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer. Approaching the 2020 season, I am happy to bring you the third annual installment of this series. In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires. We kick off the 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – with the NFC West GLENDALE, ARIZONA – OCTOBER 13: Quarterback Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals scrambles with the football during the NFL game against the Atlanta Falcons at State Farm Stadium on October 13, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the Falcons 34-33. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) Buy Sell Take the Flyer NFC West Thank you for listening to 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC West For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @RotoHeatSully and subscribe to the Sully’s 2 Cents Podcast as well as the RotoHeat YouTube Channel.
33 minutes | 6 months ago
88. Sully’s 2020 Bold Predictions
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 88 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host, Rob Sullivan. Today I am going to bring you Sully’s 2020 Bold Predictions. I recently dropped my 8 Bold Predictions for 2020 article on our website over on Rotoheat, and today I am going to roll thru those and add a couple more spicy takes for you the loyal Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast listeners. These takes are meant to be fun, the scenarios are a little out there–somewhat extreme and, in a word, bold. Bold /bōld/ is defined as; (of a person, action, or idea) showing an ability to take risks; confident and courageous. It may be that my boldest prediction for the 2020 Fantasy Football season is that there will indeed be a 2020 Fantasy Football season. That in itself is rather boring, so without further ado, here are eight bold predictions for 2020. Quarterback Daniel Jones will be a top 5 QB in 2020 CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 22: Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants throws the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on August 22, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) Eight Bold Predictions for 2020 After the 2019 NFL draft, I was a card-carrying member of the “Daniel Jones was a waste of a draft pick” club. You may recall the G-men selected the Duke QB with the 6th overall selection, making him the second QB off the board after Arizona selected Kyler Murray first overall. For the record, my #2 QB in 2019 was Drew Lock, but that is another story for another day. When it comes to Daniel Jones, please allow me to turn in my card. Let us start with the good news. In his 12 starts, Daniel Jones compiled a stat line of 284/459 for 3,027 yards and 24 touchdowns. The bad news is he averaged an interception a game and fumbled 13 times while losing 11 of them. In addition to the passing game, he ran for 279 yards and a TD in those 12 starts. His 16-game pace line in 2019 was 384/608 for 4,032 yards, 32 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and 15 lost fumbles, with 372 rushing yards and 3 scores. That stat line equals 282.48 fantasy points in a standard scoring 4 point per passing league. Aaron Rodgers was QB10 last season with 282.38 points. Here is where this gets fun for me. In 2019, Saquon Barkley missed 3 games and was a shell of his normal self until Week 17. Sterling Shepard missed 6 games, Darius Slayton 2, Golden Tate 5, and Evan Engram 8. The Giants offensive line ranked 17th in pass protection and gave up 43 sacks. In the 2020 NFL draft they added Andrew Thomas. He has quick feet with a good build and athleticism on the edge. Thomas is a well-developed pass protector who sustains his blocks and prevents a second effort from defenders. With all his weapons, especially Saquon Barkley and an improved offensive line, Jones’ turnover rate will decline dramatically. With all his weapons available, Jones will have 3 solid WRs, a top tier TE, and one of the top two running backs in football. I have Jones ranked 13th currently, and as the 2020 season plays out, I plan on moving him up those rankings. Josh Allen will finish outside the top 15 in 2020 In his first two seasons, Josh Allen has a career completion percentage of 56.3%. That, my friends, is horrific. In his rookie season, his 52.8% completion percentage ranked dead last of the 33 QBs measured behind the likes of Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, and Blake Bortles. In 2019, his 58.8% ranked dead last once again, behind Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, and Gardner Minshew. When researching for this piece, the best quote I came across was, “Josh Allen can fire it through a key hole. The only problem is he typically misses the door”. Thank the fantasy gods for rushing points in fantasy football. In those same two seasons, Allen ran for a combined 1,141 yards and 17 touchdowns. Josh Allen finished last season as the 6th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy. In 2018, Allen rushed for 631 yards, second to only the 699 from Lamar Jackson, and he scored 8 times. In 2019, Allen was third in QB rushing behind Jackson and Kyler Murray with 544 yards, scoring 9 times. In two seasons, Allen has scored 505.62 fantasy points, yet 219.5 or 43% of his productivity has come from his legs. Simply put, if the four times Frank Gore was stuffed from the one-yard line last season (in which every time after Allen scored) was a TD, Allen goes from QB6 to QB12. The Bills have added Stefon Diggs in the passing game and Zack Moss in the running game. Make no mistake, the Buffalo Bills do not want Josh Allen running the football as often as he has the past two seasons. The addition of Diggs should help his passing numbers, especially the completion percentage, as Diggs is one of the more sure handed receivers in the game, and Zack Moss should help the goal line unit. One is potentially good for Allen, and the other is likely not. Regression is coming for Allen in 2020. These are bold takes, and the reality is he very likely will remain a top scoring fantasy quarterback ( I have him ranked 8th). If Moss can punch in 4-6 scores and Diggs can haul in another 4-5. Allen will struggle to maintain his average of 8.5 rushing scores a year. Without them, he is a mid-range QB2. Running Back David Johnson will finish 2020 as a top 15 RB GLENDALE, AZ – OCTOBER 28: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football against the San Francisco 49ers during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals defeated the 49ers 18-15. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) Eight Bold Predictions for 2020 Ok, hang in there with me, and remember this is a bold predictions bit. In 2016, David Johnson finished as the top fantasy scorer with 407.8 PPR fantasy points, 27.8 points clear of number two, Aaron Rodgers, and 82.4 points clear of the number two RB, Ezekiel Elliott. In 2017, DJ was limited to one game due to a wrist injury. In 2018, he played all 16 games for the Arizona Cardinals and finished with 246.7 PPR points which was good enough for a RB9 finish. It is important to note that the 2018 Arizona Cardinals had the 32nd ranked offense–last in passing with 2,523 yards and second to last in passing TDs with 15. On the ground, they were last with 1,342 yards and 29th with 9 rushing scores. There was a reason Kliff Kingsbury was brought to Arizona. In 2019, Johnson struggled with injury, and in parts of 13 games he disappointed with 141.5 PPR points and a RB37 finish. Prior to his injury in Week 6, Johnson was RB5, averaging 20.2 points per game. In 2020, as part of one of the most bizarre offseason trades I can remember, Johnson became a member of the Houston Texans. This is the same Houston team that produced a 1,000-yard rushing season out of Carlos Hyde (the only 1,000-yard season of his career). The trade I referenced sent DeAndre Hopkins and his 150 targets out of town. Houston has targeted the running back very little in years past with Bill O’Brian calling the plays, but in 2020, Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly takes over the play calling. At this stage of his career and with his injury history, it just makes sense to get DJ the ball in space, and the best way to do that is through the air. When the Texans take the field in 2020, they will quickly realize that the second best weapon in their offense behind quarterback Deshawn Watson is RB David Johnson. Derrick Henry will finish as a RB2 in 2020 Derrick Henry is a beast of a man, and I can only assume that tackling him is the equivalent to stopping small sedan. Full disclosure, I have Henry ranked at #6 in my redraft RB rankings. I do see a scenario where I am going to regret that ranking. Prior to his ridiculous run to end the 2018 season, Derrick Henry was incredibly average. In his rookie season in 2016, he averaged 7.6 points a game and was RB44. In 2017, he averaged 8.4 points a game and was RB37. In 2018, entering Week 13 Henry was RB44 averaging 7.6 points a game. In Weeks 13-17, he was RB2 averaging 23.7 points per game, and as a result he finished as RB16 while averaging 12.6 points per game In 2019, he picked up where he left off in 2018 and finished as RB5, averaging 19.6 points per game. So if you are keeping score at home, 42 career games averaging less than 9 PPR points a game and 20 averaging north of 19. Regression is coming for Henry and the Titans in 2020. Ryan Tannehill is not the QB3 in fantasy that he played to once taking over last season. A.J. Brown is not the WR3 that he played to during that same time, and Derrick Henry is not the RB2 that averaged 23.6 points a game, either. The Titans as an offense were the most efficient in 2019 in the red zone, scoring a touchdown 77.36% of the time, nearly 10% higher than second best Green Bay Packers at 67.86%. From Weeks 8-17, the Titans scored on 86.4% of their trips inside the opponents 20-yard line. As a team, Tennessee attempted only 18 field goals all season and scored 50 total offensive touchdowns. The odds strongly suggest that the Tennessee Titans are much less efficient in 2020 and will regress to a touchdown efficiency closer to the league average of 58%. Derrick Henry, simply put, is not scoring 18 touchdowns in 2020, and for a RB who had a career high 18 receptions last season, he could easily fall back into the mid-teens in fantasy scoring. Wide Receiver Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will both finish as a top 10 WRs and Ridley will finish higher than Julio. ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 16
17 minutes | 6 months ago
87. Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request
Episode 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request. Hello Heat Seekers, welcome into Episode 87 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. Today’s episode I am going to touch on some players in the news, answer some mailbag questions. Before I get into it I want to remind you all that over on the RotoHeat YouTube Channel we are streaming 4 nights a week. We are covering IDP on Monday, Dynasty on Tuesday, Redraft on Wednesday, and Devy on Thursday. Coming soon we will add DFS on Friday’s. I have the pleasure of joining Rob Silvers and Bryce Frazier on the Inferno Podcast, our Redraft steam on Tuesday’s. Be sure to head over to YouTube and subscribe and click the notification bell so that you do not miss out on any of our great content. I am currently 8 picks into my first venture into the world-famous Scott Fish Bowl. I will say that the draft is more stressful than any other draft I have done. When you are trying to win a draft full of the industry’s top analysts, some celebrities and a bunch of hardcore degenerate fantasy managers that has a total of 1440 teams well it can be a little intimidating. The fact that RotoHeat’s Rick Butts and Brad Menendez are also in the league adds a little spice as it would be nice to have bragging rights. My team after 8 rounds consists of I am picking out of the 11 hole and I started with Dak Prescott at 1.11 and followed it up with Kyler Murray at 2.02. The league has some unique scoring settings and with the ability to start two QB’s each week I wanted to be set up at the position. I followed the selection Zach Ertz at 3.11 even though I have been telling you all not to draft Zach Ertz and to wait on TE. The league is TE premium with an additional .5 points per reception and first down. This is a pick I wish I could have back, but it is what it is. At 4.02 I selected Chris Godwin and all of a sudden, I am in a full blown zero RB type of situation. This is basically the reason I am sharing this draft with you all. Zero RB is not recommended. As a result of the pressure to grab some friggin running backs, I went with Chris Carson at 5.11, David Johnson at 6.02 and James White at 7.11. The backs all have upside, but they also have a floor that scares the hell out of me. My 8th pick was Michael Gallup, felt I needed to jump back to WR with a starting requirement of 3, and I like the idea of pairing Gallup with Dak Prescott. I have a long way to go as there are 22 rounds. I know that nobody really cares what my Fish Bowl roster looks like, but I can tell you. Running Backs fly off the board. I strongly recommend a RB/RB start to your 1 QB league drafts this season, when you get into round 3 the backs that remain don’t match the value of round three and there are an absolute ton of wide receivers available here that you are going to want. Now I went QB early as this is super flex, and TE early due to premium. Clearly knowing your league scoring and starting requirements are crucial to your overall success here. So just a little Sully’s 2 Cents redraft strategy 101. If you are in the fish bowl, shoot me your roster over on twitter, I am @rotoheatsully. Time to take a look at some news and notes from around the league; NFL players still remain subject to fines for positive marijuana tests under the new CBA. Testing used to begin on April 20 (really), but now begins when players report to camp. “You must be prepared to drug test as soon as camp opens,” the NFLPA reminded its membership in a memo. “As in years past, testing is unannounced and will happen in groups. You won’t know the date of the test. You may be tested when you walk through the door, or you may be tested two weeks after camp begins.” Weed suspensions are a thing of the past, but escalating testing and fines are not. Honestly, I have no idea why the league still tests for it at all. The drug is becoming legal in more and more jurisdictions and quite frankly isn’t a performance enhancer. The NFL needs to get over this and just move on. Raheem Mostert requested a trade from the 49ers. It’s one of the only leverage points he has over the 49ers right now as he looks to increase his salary up from $3 million. Mostert was the most efficient back in San Francisco last season and ultimately took over playoff games during the 49ers’ Super Bowl run. His agent, Brett Tessler, notes that Mostert’s contract was negotiated when he was just a core special teamer, not when he was entrenched as the 49ers’ Week 1 projected starter. A trade is possible, but unlikely. Mostert is seeking Tevin Coleman money ($4.5M) which in all reality is a pretty reasonable request. If I am the Niners however I let him know that his deal will not be renegotiated, Raheem Mostert has zero leverage, and if it were not for the Niners taking a shot on him he would be bagging groceries or driving for Uber. Mostert is 28 years old which in RB years is like 40. He needs to zip it and play on his existing deal because he has no other option. Now if Mostert is traded, Coleman’s average draft position of 115th and RB45 will climb dramatically. Jerick McKinnon may have some value and don’t forget about Jeff Wilson especially in a best ball league, there will be goal line opportunities for Wilson. He will have some weeks where he is fantasy relevant. The Titans are open to signing a new deal with franchise-tagged RB Derrick Henry prior to the July 15 deadline, but “no extension is on the verge of happening,” according to Titans Insider Terry McCormick. As of now, Henry will be playing on the $10.278 million franchise tag after rushing for over 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. McCormick reports Titans GM Jon Robinson and Cap Specialist Vin Marino continue to discuss long-term possibilities with Henry. The Titan’s top back has already signed his tender, so he will be on the field in 2020 if an extension is agreed to or not. It was reported that Henry is seeking to be one of the leagues highest paid backs. Simply put Tennessee is insane to extend Henry at the number he is making this year let alone more. Do not pay your running backs big money people there is no reason too, regardless of the back unless your name in Christian McCaffery or Saquon Barkley. And finally 49ers WR Jalen Hurd is expected to play the “big slot” role this season. Per beat writer David Lombardi, the 49ers strive for “position-less” football, and Hurd might be the prime example. The former Tennessee Volunteer running back could handle a couple carries per game, catch passes over the middle of the field, or use his 6-foot-4 inch frame to block on the edge. If Hurd is the “big slot,” that makes Trent Taylor the “small slot.” Both are coming off injuries that forced them to miss the entire 2019 season. The way I see it, Hurd’s value is tied to the health of Deebo Samuel. If Samuel ends up missing significant time, I have interest in Hurd late in my drafts. If he doesn’t, I want no part of Jalen Hurd. The Niners will be run heavy, and when they go to the air its George Kittle’s offense followed by everyone else cannibalizing each other. Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, Taylor, Hurd and the running backs. Jalen Hurd is an unknown and do not reach for him in your drafts. Hurd has a WR92 ADP for a reason kids. Mailbag time First question is from Johnny Chhun Tang from the RotoHeat Redraft Community on Facebook Will JK Dobbins be a factor this season? GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 28: J.K. Dobbins #2 of the Ohio State Buckeyes carries the ball against the Clemson Tigers in the second half during the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on December 28, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request The easy answer is yes. JK Dobbins is as talented a RB in this year’s draft class and will see snaps and touches. His ADP is currently RB38 and Mark Ingram is RB26. This is about right IMO for Ingram and Dobbins even though I like him is a tad overpriced at RB38. I look for Dobbins like most rookies to start slow this season. As everyone knows this is a strange offseason and one that may not include any preseason games. One thing that works in favor of Dobbins and all the backs in Baltimore is the Ravens lineup in 22 personal (2 running backs, 2 tight ends, 1 wide receiver) a league-high 16.9% of their snaps in 2019. I like Dobbins as the back of the future in Baltimore but on 2020, he’s a flex play IMO, with the potential to start for your roster in the back half of the season. Second question also from the RotoHeat Redraft Community on Facebook comes from Colin Fitzgerald What 2019 breakout WR was a one hit wonder? MIAMI, FL – NOVEMBER 03: DeVante Parker #11 of the Miami Dolphins runs up field after a catch during the fourth quarter against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on November 3, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images) 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request This one for me is rather easy. It is 5th year breakout WR DeVante Parker. Through four seasons, the highest Parker had finished in fantasy was WR49 in 2016. He had never played a full 16 games and had nine total TDs for his career. In 2019, the team had basically no run game. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing for goodness sakes. The team was also terrible.&n
19 minutes | 7 months ago
86. 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players
2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players Hello Heat Seekers welcome to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The podcast is a day late and I do apologize, life has been crazy this week to say the least. I do have to start off today by wishing all my friends and listeners in the United States a very Happy 4th of July. Stay safe and have fun. Well its been quite a fun week here at RotoHeat. In addition to our normal cutting-edge sports journalism our 4 night a week soon to be 5 night a week live streams over on our YouTube channel has debuted. Monday Nights the IDP Heat Seekers, followed on Tuesday Nights with the Heat Seekers Dynasty stream, Wednesday Nights Fantasy Inferno a Redraft stream, and Thursday Nights it’s the Devy Hour. Coming in July on Friday nights we will have DFS content. All streams start at 9:30 EST over on YouTube. I have the pleasure of sitting in on the Fantasy Inferno, with our host Rob Silvers, as well as Bryce Frazier. This past week we discussed Change of Scenery Players and it was a lot of fun. I hope you give it a watch and subscribe so that you don’t miss any future editions of the Fantasy Inferno or any of the other great shows the team is putting together. Today I want to talk about value in your redraft leagues, basically give you a player from each skill position that I feel is overvalued as well as undervalued at their current ADP. Overvalued and Undervalued. These are based off players current Average Draft Position over at Fantasy Pros. My take on the value of the player should not be confused with my desire to own the player. If I deem a player overvalued, I do not hate them, I dislike where I need to draft him to own him, same thing goes for undervalued. Quarterback Overvalued Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens ADP Overall 21 QB1 BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – AUGUST 15: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens throws the ball in the first half of a preseason game against the Green Bay Packers at M&T Bank Stadium on August 15, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players Lamar Jackson was tremendous last season, blowing away every other fantasy QB by nearly 100 points. His 9.0 TD-rate is going to decline considerably, as has been the case for every other QB in NFL history to achieve such a mark. In addition, his rushing totals will decrease as well. With all that said, he will still be the a top 3 quarterback, at worst, in 2020 if healthy. Having the man that led fantasy in scoring start off the 2020 Overvalued and Undervalued Players as overvalued may seem odd and I get that, but don’t shut this episode off hear me out. As I stated earlier this take should not be interpreted as a dislike of Lamar Jackson, as it’s quite the opposite–I love Lamar Jackson. What I dislike is his ADP. The reality is you should not be taking a QB this high in your drafts regardless of who it is; the opportunity cost is too high. Grab a Running Back or Wide Receiver in round two, as there is plenty of time to grab a viable starting QB in the later rounds. Undervalued Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions ADP Overall 111 QB13 Matthew Stafford entered 2019 going undrafted in the majority of 1QB leagues. Prior to a season-ending back injury, Stafford was QB9 through 8 games and was on pace for the best statistical season of his career. through his first 8 games, Stafford was averaging 21.45 points per game in 4pt passing TD leagues. A year ago, the Lions were a bad football team with a weak defense. Entering 2020, nothing has really changed. He is a solid value as the 13th ranked QB. With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson available around the end zone, we can realistically pencil him in for a 30+ TD season, provided he remains healthy in 2020. Running Back Overvalued Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans ADP Overall 7 RB6 KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 19: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans runs in a 4 yard touchdown in the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players In 2019, Derrick Henry picked up where he left off at the tail end of the 2018 season. Henry finished 2019 as the league’s leading rusher with 1,540 yards–183 yards more than second place Ezekiel Elliot. In addition to his 1,504 rushing yards, Henry added 206 receiving yards on a career best 18 receptions. He scored a total of 18 times in 2019, ranking third best in the league. His 294.6 PPR fantasy points ranked 5th best. Those are impressive numbers to say the least, but an ADP of 7th overall makes Derrick Henry the most overvalued player of all 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players. I expect Henry, along with the entire Titans offense, to regress in 2020. Henry is still a top RB, but I just don’t see him eclipsing 1,500 yards and scoring 18 times again. His ADP makes him undraftable for me in all formats, but especially in PPR. Undervalued Le’Veon Bell – New York Jets ADP Overall 37 RB18 What a difference a year makes. This time last season I was shouting from the roof tops that Bell was not a top-12 RB and that you should avoid him at his first-round value. I took a lot of heat for that take and in 2019, Le’Veon Bell proved me right. I get a lot of stuff wrong around here every fantasy analyst does. I own when I am wrong and that in my opinion entitles me to a victory lap every once and a while when I am right. Plus this is my show, so there is that! His offensive line was laughable in 2019 and has been improved in 2020. His quarterback play should be improved in 2020 and the stacked boxes should be reduced. Bell will be better this season, and he is currently coming off the board at RB18. That is too low. Le’Veon is a great example of how my opinion changes in regards to value. Overvalued or undervalued has nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with the player vs. his ADP. Bell is undervalued entering 2020. Wide Receiver Overvalued A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans ADP Overall 42 WR16 NASHVILLE, TN – OCTOBER 20: Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) runs around the corner during a game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans on October 20, 2019, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players A.J. Brown had a very productive rookie season. On just 52 receptions, Brown finished as the WR21 in PPR scoring. Of players with at least 50 catches, he was #1 in yards per reception and yards after the catch. Combine that with 8 TDs and you have a great rookie season. His second-half explosion with QB Ryan Tannehill will not be maintained. In the games Brown played with Marcus Mariota last season he was WR44. With Tannehill (who was QB3 from week 7-17) Brown was WR3. Tannehill will regress, as will A.J. Brown. He remains an extremely talented young WR, but at WR16 in the middle of round four he is being over-drafted, making him one of the 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players. Undervalued Anthony Miller – Chicago Bears Overall ADP 136 WR54 Anthony Miller possesses a ton of talent and a ton of work ethic. Injuries and Mitch Trubisky have prevented the WR from reaching his fantasy potential. In 2020, if he remains healthy, year three has all the makings of a breakout season. In his rookie season while playing through a shoulder injury the entire year, Miller finished as WR60 with 7 touchdowns. In 2019, he struggled the majority of the season and finished as WR56, but it was the finish to his season that has me this optimistic. From Weeks 12-16, Miller was WR17 averaging 15.6 PPR points a game. As RotoHeat founder a Bears’ fan Rick Butts will tell you, Trubisky missed Miller time and time again last season. With improved quarterback play from Nick Foles, Miller is a complete steal at his ADP of WR54. Tight End Overvalued Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles ADP Overall 41 TE3 PHILADELPHIA, PA – JANUARY 04: Zach Ertz #86 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after scoring a 3 yard touchdown pass from Nick Foles #9 in the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints to take the lead 24-23 during their NFC Wild Card Playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 4, 2014 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued and Undervalued Players Zach Ertz had himself a record breaking 2018 season, and as a result I was all about regression for him in 2019. He did regress, but not nearly as much as I had anticipated. 280 points and TE2 finish in 2018 turned in to a 216 points and a TE4 finish in 2019. What I find interesting is Ertz’s splits last season. From Weeks 1-8 last season, Ertz was TE7 and averaging 10.7 points per game. When the Eagles were ravished by injury at WR during the back half of the season, Ertz was TE3, averaging 16.8 points per game. In addition, Dallas Goedert is becoming more and more involved in the Eagles offense, especially in the red zone. Ertz remains a top 12 TE, but let someone else take him at pick 41, and you go find your value later in the draft. Undervalued Jonnu Smith – Tennessee Titans Overall ADP 155 TE17 Heading into his fourth season in Tennessee, Jonnu Smith is finally in a starting role. He has shown big-play ability in his sma
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