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Spread Great Ideas: The Podcast
56 minutes | 9 months ago
Tom Kineshanko: Current Threats & Opportunities in Cryptocurrency, Crypto-Friendly Countries, and Professional Money Management
Tom Kineshanko is the co-founder of the Swiss cryptocurrency hedge fund, Protos, which utilizes an interesting (and proprietary!) trading strategy for those HODLers who want to hold a long-term position in the top 10 cryptocurrencies. We talk about his experience in crypto, including the current threats and opportunities, the macro environment we find ourselves living in with QE, MMT, the weaponization of the U.S. dollar by Washington, etc., how crypto stacks up against gold, who is (and isn’t) talking their own book in the crypto world, which countries are the most crypto friendly (hello Zug, Switzerland!), how much someone should allocate to crypto in their portfolio, and part of the philosophy of liberty underpinning Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision for bitcoin. If you want to know more about crypto, professional money management, and why Switzerland is such a desirable locale then this episode is for you. Favorite Quote: “Life is super short. I want to spend time serving people who I like, doing something that I think is interesting and matters. I think crypto matters because we need a new financial system. We need a new way of collaborating.” Tom’s Links: Tom Kineshanko | Protos Tom Kineshanko | LinkedIn Other Relevant Links: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash – “Crypto Winter” Crypto Brawl: Alex Mashinsky vs. Nouriel Roubini “Dr. Doom” Paul Graham Zug, Switzerland Below is a transcript of the highlights from our conversation: How does the future of cryptocurrencies look to you? A lot of people, for example, talk about how crypto isn’t correlated to traditional assets, which is true but during the last couple of years: Point A.) we’ve never had a recession since the start of Bitcoin, and B.) when there’s a little flash crashes in the equities markets, Bitcoin immediately correlates to the stock market. It correlates and goes down. This is just an example of how I’m thinking about crypto right now, it’s like, we’re heading into a crazy year, what I’m constantly thinking about for our clients and also for myself is what bad stuff could happen to my crypto? What could cause it to go down? What are the opportunities to earn good returns? When you think about some of the bad stuff that can happen to your crypto, you’re talking about on a macro level, are you talking about the US election? Or are you talking about a recession, what are you referring to? I’m going to dive straight into Tom Kineshanko crypto thesis. That’s a quick start. I think that you have a macro environment where you see banks basically with a ton of money, giving money out for extremely low-interest rates to questionable borrowers. You’ve got the US dollar dominating the world and I believe that it will totally continue to dominate the world, and the US can put pressure on other countries to do things economically. You’ve got a generation of people like us who can be in Ubud recording a podcast. You have all these digital native people that wouldn’t mind, just transacting with each other without having to go to the smelly, old currency exchange office, who probably want just some shared currencies or just an easier way to get around. You’ve got a possible war or wars, you’ve got a possible recession. I guess you have take all the stuff together and if there is an economic recession globally, does Bitcoin go up because people flee to it? Or does it go down because it’s a risk on asset like an angel investment and people are just trying to get the hell out. I think my thesis is really, really simple. It’s basically if you take all the big macro trends in the world, there’s just so much evidence for why people would want a store of value that is decentralized and deflationary. A.) Limited in supply like land, except it’s shrinking because people lose one every day, people lose Bitcoin every day. B.) We’re now in an 11-year Bull Run for Bitcoin. There’s never been a period of more than 13 months of negative returns so we’re in a huge Bull Run, I think it just keeps going. I think we see all-time high prices this year but then at the same time, I believe that Bitcoin is still a risk on asset and if there’s a serious stock market crash, the data that we do have is going to drop. Because the only data we have is this micro stock market drops when Bitcoin immediately correlates and drops so if there’s a recession, I think it drops. Then the last bit of my thesis is that, say there’s as a big stock market crash, there’s an outside probability that people are like, “Oh, damn”, and they start actually rushing into Bitcoin and actually blow it up because people see it as an escape from the existing system. That’s my Bitcoin thesis in a nutshell. So would you buy cryptocurrencies, and what percentage of your net worth would you allocate to cryptocurrencies? I would probably say the data we have is that it correlates during these micro drops in the stock market and therefore, and we have no data showing what happens in a recession so if you’re taking a data-driven approach, you have to say, “It’s a risk on asset if there’s a recession, it’s going to drop.” If you are just like, “Tom, you’re playing with just your own money and you can do whatever you want like what would you do.” It’s like, I would much more feel that my gut sense is that our generation is going to see a lot of the chaos in the world and be like, “You know what, I just really like this stuff A.) and B.), I’m a little scared of the existing system and I’m going to move into it.” The question is, you have a portfolio. Make it simple $100. How much of it do you put into to let’s just say Bitcoin? You can talk about the different crypto assets, but let’s just say Bitcoin for now. I think the question is, do you buy it? I think the way you answer that is, it’s been the best performing asset of any asset of the last 10 years. It’s in a sustained long term Bull Run with a lot of volatility. For generational reasons, for currency crisis reasons, like all the macro stuff we talked about, it seems like a good thing to buy. It’s scarce. I think the answer to that is, yes, you should probably have some. When do you buy, how much do you buy and when do you sell? When do you buy, I think it doesn’t really matter. If you look at the return graph of the last decade it’s like you should have just bought the day that you concluded that you should have bought. Effectively every time you add extra cash dollar cost average into it? Yes, dollar cost averaging is a great principle. Yes, why not do that? Even if you just didn’t want to mess around just throwing money in it tomorrow and then just forgot about it for the next five years, I still think that’s better than trying to wait for some bottom. When you buy, how much do you buy? We broke down what happens to your typical portfolio, the idea the all-weather portfolio? An all-weather portfolio is, I think Tony Robbins probably brought this to the masses. Is like, if you look at the best asset managers in the world, several of them have tried to build portfolios that do well in good times and bad times, hence all-weather. It’s basically a portfolio that performs in good and bad times. We looked at if you add Bitcoin to a typical all-weather portfolio, what does it do over the last one year, three years, and five years. We just looked at a 1% allocation of your assets 3% and 5%, under all of those conditions, it improves your absolute returns. What I would say is, on a personal level, I’ve got way more than 5% of my money in Bitcoin. On a fun level, I would just say, I would feel totally comfortable pushing data across the desk and being like, look, the data says you should probably allocate 5%. How does Protos fit into all of this? For example if someone comes to you and says I’m going to take 5% of my liquid net worth and put it into crypto, what is it that Protos does that is the special sauce? Protos is for people who want to hold a long position in the top 10 crypto assets. Let’s just say again, Bitcoin, because we just weight them by risk. We hold, let’s just say, Protos is for people who want to hold a long term position in Bitcoin. Along with Ethereum? What would the other top 10 be? Yes, we take the top 10 and we weight them by risk, which for us is just a standard calculation using stuff like volatility. Most of our allocation is to Bitcoin though and we run fully systematic quant strategies to protect in the event of downturns without missing the upturns. The reason people come to us is we’re a Swiss Fund, we’re regulated fully transparent. Our strategies aren’t some black box quant strategy. It’s just classical trend following. You can go to ProtosManagement.com, sign up for the newsletter, and we will send you the trades that we run each week. We believe in basically, there are different people in the world that could build a trend-following system. Trend-following means catch the runs, move out during the drops. When you’re out, use the cash to generate yield through lending, whatever, some safe yield. There’s a lot of people who could build those systems. I guess what’s different about us, is we’ve actually built those systems and we’ve run them with our own money and with other people’s money for two and a half years and consistently outperformed the market for the entire time. When you say trend-following, the trend is driven by technical analysis? What actually indicates to you that its trend on for Bitcoin or trend off? Basically we’ve built a data environment that essentially shows us volatility on price and the rate of change in price. The big thing with the trend-following system is and I can go back more into my background. I come from more of a venture background than I do coin background and my two partners are the quants, but essentially, with trend-following it’s like do you trust the pri
101 minutes | 10 months ago
James Swanwick: Creating Accountability, Affirming the Truth vs. Becoming Delusional, and Tailoring Communication Styles
James Swanwick is an Australian-American entrepreneur who owns three successful businesses all designed to help people improve their lives, a former ESPN Sportscenter anchor, a fascinating conversationalist, and a well-rounded self-made man with a big heart. Our chat ran the gamut. We covered relationships, politics (including Trump!), business, philosophy, self-help courses we recommend (and those we don’t), our thoughts on living in California and Bali, the best ways we’ve found for creating accountability, affirming the truth vs. becoming delusional, how to tailor your communication style for men and women, people’s quest for identity in a post-religious world, and what is (and isn’t) your responsibility. This was a really fun, wide-ranging discussion. Favorite Quote: "I’m trying to avoid the pain of mediocrity, which is the most painful thing for me ever…I have an absolute disdain for knowing what I could be and am not." James’ Links: Maximum Life Summit Swanwick Sleep The 30 Day No Alcohol Challenge Project 90 @jamesswanwick on Instagram The James Swanwick Show Podcast Other Relevant Links: Landmark Forum Mark Manson | What’s the Point of Self-Improvement Anyway? “We must all suffer from one of two pains: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret. The difference is discipline weighs ounces while regret weighs tons.” - Jim Rohn Peter Shallard | Commit Action Never Eat Alone | Keith Ferrazzi Ram Dass Tai Lopez Tim Ferriss and the 4-Hour Work Week Lynne E. Sheridan P.S. If you liked the show, please leave a review on whichever podcast platform you listened to it on. Positive reviews help others find our work. And if you didn’t like the show, please send an email to email@example.com to let us know why so that we can do better next time. Thanks!
79 minutes | 10 months ago
Lavinia Iosub: Work Style Personality Types, Remote Team Management & Being a Successful Digital Nomad
Lavinia Iosub is a fellow expat entrepreneur who originally hails from Romania and now runs a unique combo of a business incubator, remote team management, coworking space, and consultancy service here in Bali called Livit. (Basically, if you're looking to build a remote team, scale your existing remote team, learn how to properly be a digital nomad, or just get a cool, calm place to work from in Bali so you can actually get some things done whilst you're here - then Lavinia and Livit are going to be interesting for you.) We talk about hiring in Indonesia vs. the Western democracies, synchronous vs. asynchronous communication, how to scale successfully, the different work style personality types, her take on the future of remote work and being a long-term, successful digital nomad, finding and maintaining a healthy work/life balance, an obscure Dutch social scientist who classified why people from certain cultures act the way they do, what holacracy is all about (a new term to me), and more. Favorite Quote: "Rewards can have very different natures, they can be tangible or intangible…Somebody who works in our welcoming and hospitality part just recently said to me, 'This is the first company I’ve ever been employed at where I can save money and have vacation time to visit other countries.' To me, I live for things like that. I want people to travel, I want people to develop themselves, they’ll come back as better contributors." Lavinia’s Links: Livit International Triatma Mulya Stenden: Home Lavinia Iosub | Project Getaway The Ideas Lab Podcast: Lavinia Iosub @LaviniaIosub on Twitter Other Relevant Links: Holacracy | Evolve Your Organization REWORK | Basecamp Twist Gretchen Rubin Geert Hofstede P.S. If you liked the show, please leave a review on whichever podcast platform you listened to it on. Positive reviews help others find our work. And if you didn’t like the show, please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org to let us know why so that we can do better next time. Thanks!
29 minutes | a year ago
Andrei Ivanou: Inside Belarus, Europe’s Last Dictatorship
Andrei Ivanou, a Belarusian native, and I sit down to learn more about the fascinating, oft-forgotten country of Belarus. Belarus has the dubious honor of being the longest-running European dictatorship thanks to their leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who seized power in 1994 following the power vacuum that was created by the fall of the USSR. A military man, Lukashenko is often referred to as бацька (“dad”) by Belarusians because he oversees everything and dominates the country. If you’re like me before this episode, you don’t much about Belarus - or even where it’s located. (Hint: It’s sandwiched predominantly between Russia, Poland, and Ukraine on the eastern edge of Europe.) Nor have you given it much thought in terms of what life is like there. Yet for Europeans, it’s often viewed as a bridge between East and West. And for Russia, it’s long been one of its closest allies because it serves as a critical land buffer between Moscow and the EU across the North European Plain. Andrei and I discuss what’s changed since the fall of the USSR, what it’s like to live in a dictatorship (especially after having lived in the U.S.), what’s being smuggled into and out of the country, how much locals actually make and which surprising job is the best-paid, the sort of economic propaganda put forward by the press, why Belarusian women are known worldwide for their beauty, how to travel there (spoiler alert: It’s not that easy), and more. Andrei is the CSPO at TechVice, one of the companies which my software company, CallerSmart, works with. If you’d like to learn more about Belarus and get a “boots on the ground” taste of what life is actually like under “daddy” in Europe’s last dictatorship, then this episode is for you. Andrei’s Links: TechVice CallerSmart Other Relevant Links: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko “It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes.” Digital Nomads: The best city you've never been to | Sovereign Man Chernobyl: The Wildlife Haven Created When People Left In Secretive Belarus, Chernobyl's Impact Is Breathtakingly Grim P.S. If you liked the show, please leave a review on whichever podcast platform you listened to it on. Positive reviews help others find our work. And if you didn’t like the show, please send an email to email@example.com to let us know why so that we can do better next time. Thanks!
84 minutes | a year ago
Rodolfo Young: Years in Silence, the Burden of Choice & Responsibilities, and Inspiring Others
Rodolfo Young spent two years in silent practice. He wasn’t sitting in some ashram somewhere. He was out in the world - and chose not to speak. We talk about what he learned during those two years, why he decided to do this (including the heartbreak that was the catalyst), and how others received him as they spoke to him and he didn’t reply. In addition, we go into some fascinating mental models such as understanding the ego as an ice block, how an umbrella in the rain is useful for understanding our desire to share what we’ve learned whilst also not imposing ourselves on another, cultivating curiosity, and how true choice carries with it the burden of responsibility (and why that’s actually a good thing). Rodolfo is ex-U.S. military (he served during the Iraq War doing PsyOps), a TedX speaker, an American expat, a fellow Ubudian, a motivational speaker, and an all-around thoughtful and inspiring guy. His goal is to touch a million hearts. Please have a listen and appreciate someone who has probably gone deeper into his own heart and psyche than most! Rodolfo’s Links: Rodolfo Young TEDxUbud - The Art of Holding Space RodolfoYoung.com @rodolfo_young on Instagram Rodolfo Young on Youtube Rodolfo Young Almaflow Experience Rodolfo Young’s Books on Amazon Other Relevant Links: Radio Free Europe American Sniper Vipassana Meditations Landmark Forum The Magic of Thinking Big Tony Robbins NLP The Slight Edge P.S. If you liked the show, please leave a review on whichever podcast platform you listened to it on. Positive reviews help others find our work. And if you didn’t like the show, please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org to let us know why so that we can do better next time. Thanks!
72 minutes | a year ago
Freya Savage: Entrepreneur, Raw-Food Chef, and Financial Advisor
Freya Savage is an impressive, multi-faceted woman: An established entrepreneur, a devotee to plant-based health & wellness, a certified raw food chef, an ultra-marathoner, and a successful financial planner. She’s heavily involved in food & health as well as finance, which whilst it might seem like an unusual combination at first glance, in Freya’s view this combo all revolves around the same thing: Wealth. In this episode Freya and I discuss a variety of topics including different methods of building a successful, location independent business, establishing one’s boundaries and healthy routines, what to keep in mind when starting on a new endeavor, how to own your attractiveness, and why (and how!) to make time & space for yourself in an increasingly busy world. Freya’s Links: @freya_savage_ on Instagram Wealthy Rebels With a Cause on Facebook FreyaSavage.com Full Power with Freya Savage Other Relevant Links: Product Launch Formula Hedonic Treadmill P.S. If you liked the show, please leave a review on whichever podcast platform you listened to it on. Positive reviews help others find our work. And if you didn’t like the show, please send an email to email@example.com to let us know why so that we can do better next time. Thanks!
43 minutes | a year ago
AJ Juodka: Biohacking in Bali, Ultimate Health, and SE Asia’s Hidden Gems
Aurimas Juodka, AJ for short, is a “gentle giant” - intimidating in stature and size, yet very pleasant and thoughtful when you chat with him. Originally from Lithuania, we met at DMSS and geeked out on biohacking, SE Asian hotspots, the health benefits to eating organ meats and intermittent fasting, Bali’s hidden gems, key biomarkers and how to track them, and what a healthy lifestyle in a truly holistic manner entails. In this podcast we cover these topics as well as what what AJ considers the six fundamentals for ultimate health: Sleep Stress Management Nutrition Movement Environment Mindset AJ’s goal is to help people go from good-to-great and reach their optimal health. Listen if you’re interested in bringing your body to its peak potential as we also discuss cryogenic therapy, infrared saunas, and hyperbaric oxygen therapy...you know, the usual biohacking stuff. :) AJ’s Links: The High Performance Retreat Thriving Wellness Well With AJ Well With AJ on Instagram Other Relevant Links: Oura Ring VieLight Blue Light Blocking Glasses AccuPressure Mat RFID Blocking Phone Case Radiation Free Tubular Headphones P.S. If you liked the show, please leave a review on whichever podcast platform you listened to it on. Positive reviews help others find our work. And if you didn’t like the show, please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org to let us know why so that we can do better next time. Thanks!
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