22 minutes | Jul 17, 2017

Falling House Prices? - EP44

Is it true that house prices are falling? And if so, should you be worried about it? In this episode of Real Estate Matters, Toni Planinsek is back explaining some more of the real estate headlines hitting news outlets in recent weeks. One of the frequent themes is the fear that house prices will fall, especially off the back of the July 1st law giving first-time buyers relief from stamp duty. Toni explains that speaking about the housing market in general terms often belies the detail in more granular markets. She highlights a report showing that house prices in Melbourne between the 1900s and 90s only raised by 8% on average; but within that, some markets sharply increased and some declined. Toni gives examples of recent markets that deviated from the 2010-12 average decline of 10%; even in that period of overall decline, many markets were winners. Sometimes whether your home gained or lost value even depended on whether you own a house or unit! In this episode, Toni emphasizes that home and property ownership should be looked at as a long-term investment. She gives examples of factors that can have drastic effects on capsule markets, but stresses that things can change quickly. If you are caught by one of the “Three Ds” – death, debt, or divorce – buying and selling may be unavoidable, but outside of that, Toni suggests why even a slightly depressed market could be a good time to buy. Topics Covered Recap: the July 1st new legislation for first-time buyers, which relieves stamp duty on property Some of the current views on where the market will go with the new legislation How an average house price can mask more complex dynamics The average change in the selling price of Melbourne homes in the last century The “Three Ds” – and why they can be problematic for homeowners Figures from various markets in the 2010-12 decline How the apartment oversupply in Melbourne may affect house prices Other changes, some societal, that affect house price movement Why property should be thought of as a long-term investment Resources Mentioned: Property Data & Analytics from CoreLogic.com Articles from Domain.com First-home buyers utilize stamp duty cuts and upper end of Melbourne auction market slows Total number of Melbourne auctions slides down to 732 despite cuts to stamp duty Stamp duty cuts yet to show their full impact on Sydney auction clearance rates Toni welcomes questions and comments! Feel free to email her at toni@planinsek.com!
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