77 minutes | Jun 2, 2023
Hugh Hendry: The Gravest Financial Disruption in Human Experience
Tom welcomes the fascinating new guest Hugh Hendry to the show. Hugh talks about the challenges of setting up a hedge fund today. He paints a picture of the current markets as fiercely volatile, particularly with unusual events occurring that are supposed to happen once in a century. Additionally, debt and debt expansion shows no signs of ending. Hugh reviews the implications of China predominantly using domestic financing and the effects of their surplus in global trades. He harkens back to the gold standard when it acted as successful high powered currency on an international level before the US Federal Reserve’s involvement. The US now embraces debt to an unprecedented degree that is leading much of the world to a type of serfdom. Should a conflict occur between Taiwan and China, markets would suffer a massive increase in volatility with a likely negative outcome. Meanwhile in China, their GDP metrics have failed, and the world’s economies are all in a state of decline. An example of this is the drop in financial sector stocks along with people fleeing banks to get to the 5% offered by the Fed. Hugh’s view is that the 1934 Federal Reserve Act was made to mend the banking system, however, with current price deflation and reduced capital investment, it has been ineffective. Market stabilizers, such as short selling, also aren’t able to prove as useful as before and capital controls remain a risk. He highlights the Marxist ideology that has resurfaced recently, as younger generations are no long seeing the promised level of success available to their parents. Hugh states we are in the “Fourth Depression”, and he breaks down how each of the previous three was resolved. Considering reasonable trades in relation to this environment, Hugh suggests considering Bitcoin as one of the few assets currently undervalued. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Hedge Fund Start5:57 - Bubbles & Trends10:32 - Debt Expansion & China16:07 - China's Labor Force22:32 - Taiwan & Conflict Risk28:30 - Fed Aggressiveness36:00 - Capital Flight Controls?40:55 - Feds Usefulness?48:40 - Foreign Capital & Equities55:08 - Wealth Protection?1:06:18 - Trades, Nvidia & Bitcoin1:10:33 - Thoughts on Gold1:15:48 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode We are in an unprecedented period of volatility and debt expansion, with growing potential for conflict.There has been a lack of counter moves to the overvaluation, as well as financial repression resulting from negative real rates and the possibility of a fourth depression.Bitcoin could be one of the few assets currently undervalued and he explains his views on gold. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/@hendry_hughYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficialWebsite: https://hughhendry.com/Acid Capitalist Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zj3Ox1qRD9GSynCKJIODS Hugh Hendry was born in 1969 in Glasgow, Scotland, and graduated from Strathclyde University with a degree in Business Administration and Economics and Finance in 1990. His career began at Edinburgh asset management company Baillie Gifford, followed by Credit Suisse and Odey Asset Management. In 2005, he founded Eclectica Asset Management. Hendry is renowned for his risk-taking and thought-leadership in global capital markets. His prescience in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 earned him a reputation as a prophetic iconoclast. He has achieved success on social media, including a successful podcast, viral posts, and appearances on Bloomberg, the Economist, and Institutional Investor. Hendry now resides in St. Barts, where he is a leading investor in luxury real estate. He achieved a 31.2% positive return in 2008 and was featured on Financial News's list of the 100 most remarkable people in European capital markets. Often giving interviews, participating in TV programs and conferences, and known for his contrarian views, Hugh Hendry is an influential figure in today's market ma...
46 minutes | May 31, 2023
Rafi Farber: The Inevitable Death of Fiat Currencies
Tom welcomes Rafi Farber back to the show to discuss the consequences of the debt ceiling debate. Rafi is an investor, author, and proponent of the Austrian Business Cycle. Farber discussed the possibility of flooding the market with $1 trillion worth of T-bills if a deal is passed, and the potential effects of this. He noted that similar factors were in play during the repocalypse of 2019, such as tax day and quantitative tightening, and that this current situation is worse. Farber discussed the complexity of the current banking crisis, which is the fifth largest monthly loss for the big banks in deposits ever. He believes that this is due to a combination of deposits going into money market funds, and small scale debt defaults. He also discussed the IMF's worries about the banking crisis becoming worse, and how the main difference between the 2008 banking crisis and the current one is that the Federal Reserve now owns mortgage backed securities. When asked where he saw inflation heading, Farber explained that the paradox of monetary and non-monetary forces on prices is that lower interest rates will initially drive prices down, but eventually the higher money supply will catch up and cancel out any productivity gains in the supply. This will lead to an exponential growth of money supply that will eventually be unsustainable, leading to the collapse of the banking system. Farber also discussed the weakening of global currencies, using the British pound as an example. He argued that the UK government's decision to directly finance the government deficit and hand out 70% of paychecks to citizens was "hog wild" and is now leading to a hyperinflationary spiral with food prices at 20%. He then discussed the 10-year bond being at crisis levels, as the Bank of England now owns the bonds instead of retirement funds. Farber concluded by discussing the importance of paying attention to the current state of the U.S. dollar and other currencies, and the implications this has for the future of the global economy. He argued that the only way to move beyond the skeletal remains of the Bretton Woods system is to trade in gold, but that governments don't want to do this because it's honest and they benefit from stealing. He encouraged people to stay grounded in logic and not overextend themselves, reassuring them that if they do, they will make it to the end of this game. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Ceiling Consequences5:18 - Liquidity Issues8:06 - REPOcalypse Thoughts10:23 - Feds Balance Sheet11:53 - Banking Deposits?16:13 - Mortgage Securities19:12 - Inflation Cycles22:12 - British Pound25:49 - Inflation & Metrics28:20 - The Gold Benchmark33:40 - BRICS & The Dollar37:04 - Metal Delivery Months39:50 - Gold/Silver Ratio42:24 - Communication Speed43:54 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Defaults and deposit problems in the current banking crisis.Concerns with the Fed now owning mortgage backed securities.Governments don't want to trade in gold because it's honest and they benefit from stealing, so it's important to stay grounded in logic and not overextend oneself. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/RafiFarberYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@endgameinvestorArticles: https://seekingalpha.com/author/austrolib#regular_articlesNewsletter: https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1347 Rafi Farber invests based on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory and covers economic trends for timing the credit cycle. His marketplace service, The Libertarian Investor, helps subscribers manage the risks and profit from the ongoing fiscal and monetary crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. His approach uses gold, silver, and associated stocks and investment vehicles as a low-risk, high-return methodology.
51 minutes | May 25, 2023
Justin Huhn: True Turning Point in the Fuel Market Ahead
Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn to discuss the uranium markets and his recent webinar. Justin believes that the current low price of uranium is indicative of another inflection point in the uranium industry. This is due to the positive news in June 2021, when Sprott's takeover of Uranium Participation resulted in a surge of interest from investors which led to equities doubling and tripling over the course of the following 3 months. This is leading to the establishment of several new physical funds, providing investors the opportunity to buy uranium at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV). The West is facing self-imposed Russian sanctions, making the transportation of uranium more complicated, and resulting in more uranium heading east, while Kazakhstan has formed contracts with both China and Russia for joint ventures. China is looking to rapidly increase its stockpile of uranium, and the G7 nations have recognized this and are working towards excluding Russian influence in the nuclear energy market. This could lead to a structural deficit of 180 million pounds a year in 2023 and uranium funds such as Sprott taking physical pounds off the spot market which could influence the market further. At the same time, public opinion towards nuclear energy is shifting to be more positive and supportive in the West and United States. The anti-nuclear movement of the 70s was driven by significant financial support from fossil fuel lobbyists, however Germany's attempt to expand renewables and shut down reactors has resulted in higher energy costs and one of the dirtiest grids in Europe. In Japan, public opinion is in strong support of nuclear power, while in the US there is also support. Occidental Petroleum’s CEO has spoken positively about the potential collaboration between fossil fuels and nuclear, pointing out that the fossil fuels are a limited resource so the companies will need to expand. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Miners & Input Costs8:25 - Sprott & New Funds12:56 - Term Market & 200520:09 - Russia & Contracts25:44 - China Reactor Demand28:22 - Geopolitical Changes34:23 - Supply Shortages?38:27 - Nuclear Sentiment Shift48:23 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The inflection point in the uranium industry has seen multiple physical funds, financial entities and funds competing for physical uranium, potentially suggesting a repeat of the 2005-07 bull market.West-East separation is increasing as Western utilities no longer contract with Russia due to sanctions, and East countries such as China are increasing their demand for uranium.Public opinion on nuclear energy is shifting more positively, seen in Germany, Japan and the US. Guest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsiderNuclear Now - Oliver Stone: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21376908/ Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit. Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings. Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably,
64 minutes | May 24, 2023
David Kranzler: The Strongest Fundamentals for Gold Since 2008
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics to the show. David discusses how companies often reframe their results to be more "socially acceptable". During the tech bubble the game of earnings management evolved; analyst's influence drove the consensus estimates down and then, when the company beat the estimates, it painted a manipulated picture of their financial standing. David explains the effect that higher rates have on the housing sector; many households are already overstretched and not prepared to pay for house payments when interest rates increase. We are beginning to return to the liar loan phase which helped cause the 2008 housing crisis with Mortgage-Backed Securities. Similarly, auto loans are also being bundled with both prime quality and riskier loans being sold to investors. The financial system is dependent on continued growth of the money supply, which drives it. However, if the increase is pulled back too quickly, the entire system can collapse, which will eventually happen. Lastly, David urges people to ignore mainstream media and do their own research. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Reframing Results10:31 - Rates & Housing Impacts18:45 - Lending Shenanigans24:49 - Banking Crises & Rates29:44 - Inflation Themes & M244:50 - Gold & Monetary Systems49:22 - Confidence in Miners?56:33 - Mining Risk & Returns57:45 - Gold & Rising Tides1:00:00 - Putting a Pin In It Talking Points From This Episode Factors driving the debt cycle globally.Why we're in a dangerous period with housing and auto loans .Risks around earnings and company financials statements. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamicsWebsite: https://investmentresearchdynamics.comNewsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
60 minutes | May 23, 2023
Egon von Greyerz: The West Will Go the Way of Debt Implosion & Inflation
Tom welcomes back Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG based in Switzerland. He explains how the debt ceiling is a farce, and a regular show every time it's reached. It's been raised over a hundred times and every time, it's nothing but a political posturing. This is only going to lead to the debt being increased exponentially. Firesince Reagan, the U.S. debt has doubled every eight years, and by 2025, it is projected to reach around $40 trillion. The Fed will likely reach a point where it will no longer be able to control the interest rates. This signifies a dire situation that is further complicated by the fact that no one wants to buy bonds from a country that is technically bankrupt. To try and keep the debt at bay, the U.S. will most likely deploy inflationary tactics, resulting in an increase in prices. Looking at the macroeconomic scenario, investing in gold is the way to go to safeguard assets from the insecurity caused by risky assets. Additionally, Egon emphasizes that banks in the E.U. are no better off than those in the United States, and the current economic system would have worked much better if supply and demand were allowed to rule, as opposed to the continuous government interference. Finally, we are seeing a decline in the West, which could potentially lead to occasional conflict. Nevertheless, Egon advises that we help each other to make it through this rocky patch, as it's going to be difficult for everyone no matter what. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - U.S. Debt Ceilings6:13 - Debt Pool Analogy11:16 - YCC & C.B. Purchases13:40 - Banking Contagion23:54 - Bail-In Concerns27:02 - EU & Western Banking32:05 - What Breaks Next?35:00 - Eastern Nations & Gold42:36 - Domestic Gold Production47:57 - Gold Price & Meaning51:08 - Inflation End-Game54:55 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode Why the U.S. Debt Ceiling is just politcal posturing.European banks are just as bad off as the United States.The West is in decline and it will take time to correct. Guest Links:Website: https://www.goldswitzerland.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland Egon von Greyerz is Founder & Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG. He started Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) in 1999 as a private investment company. From the very beginning, wealth preservation was an essential cornerstone of the company. In early 2002, they believed that financial and economic risk in the World was getting uncomfortably high. So that year, they made substantial investments in the physical gold market at $300 on average. As gold started to rise in the early 2000s, demand for physical gold increased, and in 2005 they set up a regulated company in Zurich - Matterhorn Asset Management AG. A couple of years later, they formed GoldSwitzerland, which is the precious metals division of MAM. Egon was Born with both Swiss and Swedish citizenship. His education was mainly in Sweden. He started his working life in Geneva as a banker and after he spent 17 years as Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc. Since the 1990s, Egon has been actively involved with financial investment activities, including mergers and acquisitions and Asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of MAM, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles. MAM is now the World's leading company for physical gold and silver outside the banking system, directly owned by the investor. Their four vaults include the most immense and safest gold vault in the World, located in the Swiss Alps. Clients are High Net Worth Individuals, Family Offices, Pension Funds, Investment Funds, and Trusts in over 75 countries. Egon makes regular media appearances and speaks at investment conferences around the World. He also publishes articles on precious metals, the world economy, and wealth preservation.
59 minutes | May 18, 2023
David Brady: Protect Yourself During the Controlled Demolition of the Economy
Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders to discuss the current financial picture. He believes this is the last pull back before a big take off in gold, silver, platinum, and miners. Hedge funds are massively short bonds in particular the 10-year, and the banks are on the opposite side of that trade. History shows that banks are almost always the winners. He provides a few targets he anticipates in the next run. David believes we will get a deflationary event at some point in the near future. By the end of the year, he feels a depressionary scenario is likely, with soaring unemployment, bankruptcies, credit card debt, and auto reposessions. Real estate is stagnating, and the banking crisis is worsening. The Fed will cut rates and print, but that might not save the markets this time. We could be looking at a controlled demolition of the economy, with most sectors going down. Prices for necessities will skyrocket, and there won't be many places to put your money. David believes a mind-shift is occurring in the public with regards to gold and confidence in currencies. We're seeing talk about fertilizers being bad for the environment and the purchasing of farms in the Netherlands. If the politicians don't agree on the debt ceiling agreement, all hell could break loose. The Fed would have to restart the printers as the debt rating falls. We can't just keep borrowing while devaluing the currency, which means some sort of financial reset is inevitable. You want to be in assets proven to hold value through time. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Unease & Crises10:38 - Flash Crash Potential?19:00 - Interest in Gold?21:56 - Inflationary Event26:12 - COT Report Trends29:10 - Debt Ceiling Theatrics40:03 - Europe & Dollar Dynamics43:14 - Dollar & Gold Movement47:15 - Reality & Growth Goals54:30 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode Hedge funds are short bonds while banks are long; who will be right.A great recession is a risk in which prices for necessities will skyrocket.We are facing a financial reset, and why the best bet is to invest in assets proven to hold value. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writersSilver Chartist: https://silverchartist.com David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce. He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life. David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
63 minutes | May 17, 2023
Matt Geiger: Gold Holds Strong in the Face of High Rates
Tom welcomes back MJG Capital Managing Partner Matt Geiger to the show. Matt remarks on the recent rallies and predicts that a smaller rally could occur on a Fed pause, while noting that reaching new highs is still in the realm of possibility. He believes the next decade holds promise for investing in miners and commodities and that this will eventually trickle down to junior miners, making him feel comfortable with the current situation. Macro factors are aligning well for precious metals, with mid-tiers beginning to pick up and the broader markets waiting in anticipation. Matt predicts that mining will eventually become more popular among younger generations. He also acknowledges the hype surrounding lithium mining, but believes that a correction is needed in that market with the trend moving towards lithium ion phosphate batteries. Matt is seeing increasing M&A activity, including some significant acquisitions. He provides advice on investing in junior miners and explorers; suggesting that betting on the people rather than individual projects is usually the best approach. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:37 - Miners & Sentiment8:06 - Gold & Resistance14:35 - Commodities Value17:36 - Mining & Politics21:49 - Lithium Mining25:23 - Refining Capacity27:42 - Strategic Minerals31:22 - Copper Demand34:05 - Silver Thoughts37:44 - Canada Divestment?41:14 - Jurisdictions48:08 - M&A Activity51:43 - Junior Mining Mistakes1:01:06 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The next decade will be a good one for investing in miners and commodities.M&A Activity is picking up in the mining sector.Lithium mining is currently a hot topic, but Matt believes a correction in the market is required. Guest Links:Website: http://mjgcapital.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/geigercounting Mr. Geiger is Managing Partner at MJG Capital, a limited partnership specializing in natural resource investments. The partnership is long-only and holds a concentrated portfolio of resource equities. Investments include explorers, developers, and producers of precious metals, energy metals, industrial metals, and ag minerals. Matt is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and previously founded a venture-backed technology company most recently valued at $150m.
56 minutes | May 16, 2023
Jesse Felder: The Recipe for $2700 Gold
Tom welcomes back, Jesse Felder. Jesse is the founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report. He discusses how Federal policy aimed to create a wealth effect through printing money, yet it has only generated bubbles and the illusion of growth. He goes on to explain that the more money a country prints, the less attractive that currency becomes to other countries. We have reached a point where the Fed has to intervene and continue to monetize the debt, and the FDIC has stated they will cover all depositors, raising questions of moral hazard. Jesse believes we are heading for a hard landing in the second half of this year. In addition, an article from the Financial Times pointed out that the United States fiscal status is now similar to that of Greece and Italy due to their increasing unfunded liabilities and pension obligations. Jesse emphasizes that precious metals are the only asset class that has historic precedent of preserving value in crisis and warns that investors are currently drastically under invested in this sector. He believes that investor demand could go through the roof and that it appears to be setting up for such a run. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - MMT & Fed Wealth Effects4:14 - GDP & M2 Spiral8:58 - Foreign Dollar Demand11:45 - Fed & Confidence15:47 - Banks & Interventions21:06 - The Feds Toolbox?25:05 - Treasury Turbulence28:26 - Liquidity, Rates, Energy31:23 - Dollar & Liabilities34:05 - Bad Fiscal Status40:35 - Gold & Inflation43:40 - Inflation Protection46:45 - Hard Landing & Inflation52:06 - A.I. & Disinformation54:54 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The Fed has been printing money for years, creating asset bubbles and artificial growth.U.S. fiscal status is now similar to Greece and Italy, with record deficits and unfunded liabilities.Precious metals could be the only asset class that holds its value in a crisis. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jessefelderWebsite: https://thefelderreport.com/Articles: https://thefelderreport.com/blog/ Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
73 minutes | May 13, 2023
Simon Mikhailovich: Converging Macro Trends are Changing the World as We Know It
Tom welcomes back Simon Mikhailovich. Simon is a contrarian investor, entrepreneur, and the founder of The Bullion Reserve. Simon discusses the counterparty risks that are present in the financial system and how they can lead to bank failures. He notes how the financial system is a series of daisy chains that, if broken, can cause a domino effect and throw the entire system into question. He also notes the 2008 crisis was fifteen years ago, and in that time the Fed has been unable to end its extraordinary policies. This is resulting in a massive amount of debt that would be impossible to service at higher interest rates. Simon believes that this is leading to a radical de-globalization, higher costs, and a reshuffling of the global supply chain that is highly inflationary. In this environment, he suggests that gold may be a better investment than Bitcoin due to its perceived reliability. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Counterparty Risks9:45 - Bank Run Prevention12:33 - Bail Outs & Confidence14:09 - Social Polarization20:50 - System Fragility29:45 - Cost of Living36:17 - Human Nature & Time44:00 - Phase Transitions48:15 - Gold Price & ETF Flows53:18 - Gold As Insurance54:44 - Value of the Dollar58:42 - Rates, Dollar & Gold1:04:36 - Bitcoin & Adoption1:10:37 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Counterparty risks in the financial system can lead to bank failures, putting the entire system in question or gridlock.The Fed's extraordinary policies since 2008 has resulted in a massive buildup of debt, making servicing it impossible at higher rates.In this environment, gold provides a guaranteed level of confidence not available with bitcoin. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/S_MikhailovichWebsite: https://www.bullionreserve.com Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold. Previously, Mr. Mikhailovich was a Portfolio Manager at Falcon Asset Management, overseeing alternative investments in hard assets, including oil and gas properties, timberlands, and agribusiness. During the credit cycle of the early 1990s, he headed a workouts' team responsible for restructuring multiple businesses in North America and Europe. Mr. Mikhailovich received a M.S. in Business (Finance) from the University of Baltimore and a B.S. from Johns Hopkins University.
57 minutes | May 12, 2023
Gary Tanashian: Gold Miner Fundamentals Becoming Undeniable to Investors
Tom welcomes Gary Tanashian, founder and author of 'Notes from the Rabbit Hole', about the ingredients necessary to create a big bull market in mining stocks. Gary believes that high gold prices, lower input costs, and increasing momentum are key ingredients. He believes that the Fed will not be able to effectively inflate the system as they have in the past and that the first correction could be harsh if the everything bubble pops in 2023. He believes that gold will become more bullish as inflation peaks and that the momentum will come from non-gold bugs taking notice of the improving fundamentals and starting to invest in the sector. Gary believes that the gold-silver ratio is a more fine-tuned indicator than the gold-copper ratio and that rising gold-silver ratio can indicate that liquidity is under threat in the broader markets. He also discussed the potential for a new inflationary source and de-dollarization, suggesting that investors look for sound gold mining operations in safer jurisdictions, and ETFs such as GDX and GDXJ. He believes that the sector as a whole will benefit regardless of what individual companies are doing and that precious metals should be separated from industrial metals. Overall, Gary believes that the ingredients necessary to create a big bull market in mining stocks are in place and that investors should look for the market signals, tune out the noise, and focus on gold as the anchor of the complex. He believes that the Fed has had enough after decades of inflating the markets and that they may be smart enough to recognize that. Gold is seen as a safe haven asset and Gary believes that central banks will become more involved in gold markets, which could lead to higher gold prices. He discusses the 2008 crisis and how he tried to buy the crisis at the time.. Talking Points From This Episode Investing in gold is a good way to protect against inflation and de-dollarization.The gold-silver ratio is a better indicator than the gold-copper ratio to determine if liquidity is at risk.Look for sound gold mining operations in safer jurisdictions, and consider ETFs such as GDX and GDXJ if individual miners are not an option. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Gary's Background2:00 - Fundamentals & Sentiment5:46 - Miners & Todays Markets10:18 - Gold & Three Factors14:17 - Fed Indicators & Yields20:30 - Deflationary Thesis24:00 - Feds Playbook?27:35 - Dedollarization34:12 - Fiat Ponzis36:42 - Gold Silver Ratio40:28 - Gold & Oil Indicators45:12 - Gold Interest Miners46:30 - Management & Financials48:13 - Mining ETFS & Royalties51:30 - Other Metals53:48 - Signals & Process56:20 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/NFTRHgtWebsite: https://nftrh.com/ Gary Tanashian is the founder and author of the financial market report, 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' (NFTRH), a service that provides technical analysis, sentiment/psychology, and various unique macro market ratio indicators to successfully navigate all market environments. For over 21 years, Gary has operated a progressive medical device/equipment/component manufacturing company, giving him an understanding of and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors. His website/newsletter service, biiwii.com, was created in 2004 to help communicate a message about deeply rooted problems with irreconcilable levels of debt and leverage within the inflated financial system, with his concerns confirmed and message justified with the 2007/2008 financial crisis. NFTRH Premium was launched right into the teeth of one of these liquidations on September 28, 2008. Anyone can manage a calm market. Not everyone can manage a crash or be ready to deploy capital at a time of max fear. NFTRH has successfully done just that through two major liquidations, a few cyclical bear phases and a whole lot of inflationary bull since 2008. Gary is a gold bug,
53 minutes | May 11, 2023
Rick Rule: The Moral Crisis of ESG Imposition on Mining Companies
Tom welcomes back the legendary investor Rick Rule to discuss ESG and the mining industry. Rick Rule argues that ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) should be understood in an entirely different way than proposed by politicians - as technology has made it possible to lift up the lower third of mankind materially speaking. The billionaires flying into Davos shouldn't have the right to tell others what not to do; free-market forces are better solutions for these problems, rather than imposing regulations or central planning on individuals as suggested by "big thinkers" like Justin Trudeau. Rule suggests Canada's refusal to sell natural gas as hypocritical in a world becoming more reliant on energy sources like coal. As societies become more wealthy, the willingness to pay for improvements like the environment and habitat improvements increases. He notes that without the use of modern fertilizers, we would need twice the arable land to merely survive. For much of humanity, food would become scarcer and or unaffordable. India is doing a lot of research into growing more food in a smaller area, and they are now a net food exporter. We should use every available technology to steward the land and the well-being of humanity. Solutions already exist and do not need to be imposed by central planners. The success of Central Planners is highly questionable. Socialists have accomplished some amazing, albeit negative things. Talking Points From This Episode Environmental concerns should be addressed through technology, free-market forces & individual solutions rather than regulations or top-down approaches proposed by "big thinkers".Canada's refusal to sell natural gas, hypocritical in a world becoming more reliant on energy sources like coal.Food production can be improved through technology, research, and modern fertilizers. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:30 - Rick's 'E'SG Position14:08 - Social-Ist in ESG17:44 - Governance & Hubris20:42 - Alternative Energy24:54 - Governance & Diversity30:11 - Discussing ESG30:52 - Efficient Systems?34:07 - Opposing Ideas & Energy37:15 - Big Thinkers & Cabals44:00 - SEC & ESG Guidelines47:05 - Free Markets & Coercion48:00 - Biases & Understanding49:38 - Rule Symposium & Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickruleWebsite: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.comJuly Conference: https://www.rulesymposium.com/2023Bootcamp: https://www.rulesymposium.com/bootcamp Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors. Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water. Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
57 minutes | May 6, 2023
Jonathan Davis: 2023 Could be as Bad as 2008
Tom welcomes Economist and Wealth Advisor Jonathan Davis back to the show. Jonathan Davis believes we could be repeating the 2008 banking crisis. Central bankers make incorrect statements about the future and have their own agendas often connected to politics. The Fed is surrounded by incapable academics and often behind the curve. Real estate mortgages will have to be reset at higher rates, and unemployment is likely to rise. Interest rates and inflation don't always work together, and there's little value in bonds for long-term investors. Commodities are in a state of collapse, and manufacturing is in contraction globally. China has a large debt and had to implement harsh lockdowns. Western countries are still closing nuclear plants while Japan and China are opening new reactors. The next major risk-off event could be soon and gold will rebound when it happens. He advises investing in funds for specific asset classes rather than individual stocks. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - History Repeating?3:30 - Data Dependent6:14 - Inflation Ahead?9:00 - Rates & Charts14:07 - Long-Term Treasuries?15:43 - Bias, Fed & Complacency18:17 - Equities Sell Off & Gold21:49 - Commodity Crash & China25:52 - Gold & Heart Conditions29:13 - U.K Mid Caps & DXY34:05 - Lagging Miners?35:52 - Uranium Thoughts40:45 - Best Markets for Metals42:46 - Overall Recovery Themes50:40 - Historic Dow Chart53:14 - Strategies & Funds56:25 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The 2008 banking crisis seems to be repeating.Commodities are in a collapse along with global manufacturing.Focus on investing with funds for specific asset classes rather than picking individual stocks. Guest Links:Website: https://jonathandaviswm.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavisTwitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Planning (now Chartered Wealth Management Institute). Jonathan has been delivering wealth advice since 1987. Johnathan established the Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in January 2007, where they provide a niche Wealth Management advising a small number of clients. He established this firm in January 2007. He has over 1000 appearances in the press, radio, and TV. He is often asked to comment on financial issues.
53 minutes | May 5, 2023
Don Durrett: The Fed has Broken the Free Market
Tom welcomes Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of GoldStockData.com back to the show. Don believes that the Fed is killing the banking industry, causing inflation to drop rapidly and leading us into a recession. They've been focused on regaining their MMT toolbox, as well as insuring enough liquidity in the market to prevent system failure. This is causing a paradigm shift in the economy. Layoffs will lead to a significant recession and possibly our own "lost decade". Credit availability is decreasing and earnings are expected to decline. The odds favor another drop in gold during a market selloff. Silver is undervalued and banks are preventing the metals from outperforming equities. Changes to Mexican mining laws are raising taxes, and potential for nationalization of mines remains a concern. Dan believes silver will be designated as a strategic metal and ETFs outlawed when shortages occur. He advises selling silver miners before gold miners. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Fed Rate Hike7:48 - Low Rates & Printing16:00 - Slowdowns & Reality27:02 - Silver & Manipulation32:34 - Price Targets37:53 - Mexico Mining Laws42:50 - Nationalization Risks47:53 - Outlawing Silver ETFS50:40 - Canada & No Reserves52:12 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The Fed is killing the banking industry and driving us towards a recession.Silver may be designated as a strategic metal and ETFs banned when shortages occur.Changes to Mexican mining laws are increasing costs. Globally nationalization of mines is a concern. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23 Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
53 minutes | May 4, 2023
Tavi Costa: The Interest Rate Wrecking Ball
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show. Tavi discusses how debt is squeezing the margins of companies and earnings are becoming increasingly problematic. Many believe the issues have been resolved, but mis-marking of balance sheets is affecting numerous sectors, such as banking, commercial real estate, and junk bonds. Yields are rising due to excessive debt issuance over recent years and the most aggressive fiscal policy relative to unemployment. With conflicting policies, it's hard to see gold not doing well in this environment. Oil markets and energy remain tight due to a dearth of capital spending and the use of strategic reserves by governments. Everyone is now worrying about liquidity, and it appears likely the Fed will have to intervene at some point. Commodity businesses related to precious metals, particularly exploration and development, are trading at historically undervalued levels. This is setting up what might well be one of the best times to invest in the gold space, as the market is yet to understand the resource sector. Numerous companies with major discoveries are still trading at suppressed levels, offering a great opportunity. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Rates, Debt & Consequences6:50 - Factors to Consider14:30 - Central Bank Reserves18:30 - Bond Performance26:00 - Energy & Investment Themes33:00 - Explorers & Producers40:00 - Capital Positioning45:30 - Other Metals52:00 - Wrap Up Guest Links:► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital► Website https://crescat.net► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/ Talking Points From This Episode:► Outlook for the economy in an ever increasing debt system.► Lack of capital expenditures in resources will exacerbate problems in energy and metals.► Resource companies with solid fundamentals continue to trade at historic undervaluations. Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
58 minutes | Apr 29, 2023
Martin Armstrong: The Growing Threat of Digital Currencies & Conflict
Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong, CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd. Martin is a hedge fund manager, international advisor and author. Martin speaks out on US's involvement in Ukraine, the risks around Ukraine joining NATO, and the effects of deglobalization. He is also concerned about energy scarcity, inflation, and the capabilities of coming digital currency systems. He believes the US was the instigator of the conflict in Ukraine and never intended to honor the Minsk agreement. World leaders are irresponsible and that the US has never told the truth about any war. Martin suggests that the new reserve currency will be digital, and that the US is heading towards stagflation rather than recession. He believes that the US is heading for war, with the neocons in full control, and that the 2024 election will not be fair. There is too much at stake in politics today. He is critical of censorship laws, and worries that this is just a part of a larger agenda. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Conflict & Ukraine9:40 - ICC & Jurisdiction13:26 - Ukraine History15:30 - International Trade23:30 - Inflation Globally30:04 - War & Energy Scarcity31:33 - Recession & Consumers37:48 - CBDC & Adoption41:10 - Wealth Protection44:20 - Gold Misconceptions50:58 - Trending Concerns53:58 - Power & Media56:25 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Martin believes the US was the instigator of the conflict in Ukraine and never intended to honor the Minsk agreement.He suggests the new reserve currency will be digital, and the US is heading towards stagflation rather than recession.The US is heading for war, with the Neocons in full control, and that the 2024 election will not be fair.He is concerned about new censorship laws being part of a larger agenda. Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/strongeconomicsFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9 Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries. Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter. "In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro "will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation," leading to the system's eventual collapse." His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the general public and organizations on the global economic and political environment's underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical patterns and market behavior in timing, price, and crisis to understand better and identify potential future trends, using an extensive monetary database and advanced proprietary models.
49 minutes | Apr 28, 2023
Jeff Clark: Hitting Paydirt in Mining Stocks
Tom welcomes Jeff Clark back to the show! Jeff is the Founder of GoldAdvisor.com and author of the new book "Paydirt." He started outlining the book during Covid, with the goal of making it entertaining and engaging, yet simple and straightforward. Sixteen other experts from the industry also contributed to the book. Jeff believes we are on the cusp of another bull market cycle, and mining is one of the few areas left with good return potential. When it enters the mania phase, he won't hesitate to sell, as it's important to lock in profits. He urges investors to not be afraid to sell miners, as they should be seen as girlfriends rather than wife material. Jeff then explains the Lassonde Curve and how it can help investors understand where a mining equity is during the lifecycle of a developing project. He also stresses the importance of discipline when positioning, recognizing red flags in miners, and taking advice from those in the industry. Talking Points From This Episode Learning how to pick good miners and why Jeff wrote "Paydirt".Why excellent opportunity remains in the mining sector.Important lessons from geologists and timing in the mining cycle. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Paydirt Picking Miners4:08 - Passion & Opportunity6:34 - Gold Rush Mind Set9:13 - Gold, Silver, or Stocks12:18 - Miners & Insomnia14:53 - Phase of the Cycle18:12 - Lessons & Gains19:27 - Silver Demand & Uses22:15 - Energy & Industrial Uses24:05 - Silver & Fuel Rods25:45 - Metals & Price27:10 - Geologist Lessons30:05 - The Lassonde Curve33:20 - Timing & Mining Cycle36:46 - Royalty & Streaming?38:36 - The Deal Breakers40:36 - Portfolio & Discipline42:54 - Entry and Exits44:42 - Information Resources46:16 - Paydirt & Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://thegoldadvisor.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/TheGoldAdvisorWebsite: https://goldsilver.com Jeff Clark is an accomplished metals and mining analyst, author and speaker, recognized as a global authority on precious metals. His roots in the industry are deep, with an award-winning gold panner father and family-owned mining claims in California, Arizona, and Nevada. Jeff has just authored his new book "Paydirt!" which is available at thegoldadvisor.com. Jeff is an active investor and writer, and has previously served as senior editor for the renowned publication BIG GOLD, as well as Senior Precious Metals Analyst for Hard Assets Alliance and a Senior Editor for Casey Research. He is currently on the board at Strategic Wealth Preservation, a bullion storage facility in Grand Cayman, and provides analysis and market commentary for GoldSilver.com. Jeff is a regular conference speaker, including at Cambridge House and Sprott Resources events, the Silver Summit, and many others.
63 minutes | Apr 27, 2023
Keith Weiner: The Long Death Spiral of the Dollar
Tom welcomes back Keith Weiner, the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals, to the show. Keith discusses his Guide to the Gold Market and what investors really need to know. He explains that gold tracks the loss in value of the dollar, which is designed to lose purchasing power over time; and, how gold acts as a benchmark for the rest of the economic system. He also argues that desperate measures like tariffs end up creating more problems than they solve, and that the 2008 financial crisis was caused by a vicious spiral of markdowns on bonds. Keith explains how the dollar is a relationship of being owed and how the incentives to continue this behavior remain compelling. He believes that the only thing that can replace the dollar is gold, but currently there is little interest. He argues that Comex inventory movements have little impact on the price and that historical analogies for gold can be useful because history does tend to rhyme. He also argues that the utility of gold at the margin does not diminish when supply increases; it acts as an objective measuring stick for economic value. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Gold Misconceptions7:36 - Tariffs & Incentives12:00 - Gold & Interest Rates19:25 - Banks & Bonds25:50 - Imminent Dollar Death?31:00 - Dollar Demand & Trust39:44 - Commodity Currencies44:20 - Price Vs. Production47:10 - Silver & Mint Demand49:46 - Manipulation52:25 - Comex Inventory Flows54:13 - Past Cycles & Today56:54 - Gold & Counterparties1:00:28 - Measuring Wealth1:01:18 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Gold tracks the loss in value of the dollar, which is designed to lose purchasing power over time.The only thing that can replace the dollar is gold, but currently there is little interest.The utility of gold is it's ability to act as an objective measuring stick for economic value. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/RealKeithWeinerWebsite: https://monetary-metals.comField Guide: https://monetary-metals.com/how-not-to-think-about-gold-lp/Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.netPersonal Blog: https://keithweinereconomics.com/ Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price. Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this. Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence. Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics. Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
23 minutes | Apr 20, 2023
Michael Pento: The Fed Can’t Control Inflation without Bursting All Asset Bubbles
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the program. Michael compares the huge increase in debt leading up to the 2008 financial crisis and the current debt bubble. Pento highlighted the $68.9 trillion in total non-financial debt that is currently outstanding, which is double the amount of debt prior to the crisis. He notes that this was caused by the Federal Reserve taking interest rates to 1% and then to 0%, which created an artificial edifice known as the US economy. Pento described how the Fed’s balance sheet went from $800 billion in 2007 to $9 trillion in 2022, which caused misallocations of capital and asset bubbles. He warns that the only way to bring down inflation was to pop the bubbles, but that this would cause further economic destruction. He explains that this cycle of inflation-deflation would eventually lead to an inflation oppression, in which high rates of inflation would be combined with low economic growth. He coined this term “infla-pression” back in 2012. Michael discusses the four horsemen of the economic apocalypse, which are cash, US sovereign debt, the dollar and shorts. He believes that the Federal Reserve's BTFB has prevented a liquidity crisis and created a number of zombie banks. He has been investing in gold and miners, and his current allocation is 14%. He is waiting to see further erosion in economic growth before he increases his gold allocation to 20%. He advises that 5% of investments should be in physical gold, and the rest could be in liquid or paper gold. He believes that now is the time for people to buy the dip in precious metals. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - 2008 Debt Crisis & Today3:30 - A Perfect System5:45 - Yellen & Q.E. Lite6:52 - Inflationary Cycles8:57 - Asset Bubbles & Inflation14:36 - Infla-pression16:00 - The Four Horseman19:47 - Rates & Allocations22:05 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode The US non-financial debt is double the amount prior to the 2008 financial crisis.Michael coined the term “infla-pression” which is a combination of high inflation and low economic growth.Michael advises that now is likely the time to buy the dip in precious metals. Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: email@example.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpentoLast Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv5wARHQcMY Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, with over 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios that raised over $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. He is the author of the book "The Coming Bond Market Collapse" and has a weekly podcast called "The Mid-week Reality Check."
57 minutes | Apr 19, 2023
Greg Weldon: The Crowd is Just Waking Up to the Gold Trade
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Greg Weldon. Greg is publisher of Weldon Live and an Veteran Commodity trader. Almost a trillion dollars of consumer credit has been created, and there is fear that banks will scale back lending, resulting in further market declines. If central banks pull back from lending, problems could arise quickly. A contraction in credit is possible, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be testing the boundaries. Paul Volcker is Powell's hero, but the debt load today is much higher than it was in the 1980s. Inflation base effects are just now starting to kick in. We could see further declines in energy, which will temporarily impact inflation. The Fed may need to back off sooner than they wanted. The charges on credit cards are at record levels due to people's need to pay bills. Everything is costing more, and borrowing at high interest rates is a problem. Rents are near all-time highs, so the pain will persist. Greg believes the Fed is almost done and could hold this level, or even start easing. They appear to have enough ammunition for the next recession. Everyone knows there are issues coming with pensions and other parts of the financial system. Difficult times are coming and people need to prepare. When looking to protect financial assets, it will become increasingly difficult. Stocks may rise, but inflation may eat those gains, making it hard to keep up. The writing is on the wall in regards to the US dollar and its manipulation of other nations' economies. Now that China's economy is surpassing that of the US, the global tone is changing. Lastly, he talks about his thoughts on gold targets, real rates, and the direction of the dollar. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Fed & Consumer Credit3:38 - MMT & Lack of Growth6:09 - Bank Deposit Concerns8:20 - Inflation Re-Targeting10:22 - Consumer Concerns17:44 - Fed: 1980s & Today26:35 - Public Debt & Pensions29:15 - Diversifying Globally32:36 - Inflation & Energy36:12 - Dollar & China39:10 - Gold Targets44:37 - Real Rates Outlook47:04 - Other Sectors49:50 - Commodity Nations51:32 - Energy & Gas Inventories54:05 - Nickel Fraud56:29 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode High consumer credit, combined with banks' potential scaling back of lending, could result in a contraction in credit and further market declines.Everyone needs to prepare for difficult times ahead, as it will become increasingly difficult to protect financial assets.The global financial tone is changing, which could impact gold targets, real rates, and the direction of the dollar. Guest Links:Website: http://www.weldononline.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVEYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8JMaGgCaqV-IDNP37AnNdwE-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
48 minutes | Apr 18, 2023
Adam Hamilton: The Fed Cannot Stop Inflation, Gold will Shine
Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator. Adam discusses the seasonality in gold, which typically sees three different rally periods each year, similar to agricultural commodities. However, there is no fundamental reason for gold's spring rallies - it seems people are simply more optimistic during this time, leading to more buying of gold stocks, starting around mid-March and ending around May. Adam explains how moving averages are useful for determining if equities are overbought or oversold, and suggests raising trailing stops to preserve gains when it is significantly overbought. He notes that the Fed is under pressure from other central banks that are pausing on hiking, causing huge problems in the economy and instability in banks - rate hikes are hitting ordinary people hard, and those with mortgages could become increasingly vulnerable. Adam expects the Fed to hike one more time and then pause to see the impact, closely monitoring labor markets data, although he is aware that some of the U.S. BLS data is highly suspect. Alternative data sets are showing declining labor growth, and if labor markets are far weaker than expected, this could have outsized consequences when Fed policy is mis-applied. He believes that the dual mandate should not exist, and the Fed's focus should simply be on price stability - inflation is just an effect caused by too much money in the system, and the value of money should be set by free markets. Silver is seen as a sentiment gauge for gold and has been doing well, although futures buying is waning. Gold above 2000 is attracting a lot of interest. Lastly, he discusses the miners and why investor sentiment is taking time to adjust to this new market environment. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Spring & Seasonality6:06 - C.B. Hike Pauses & Fed9:04 - Feds Path Forward10:12 - Expectations & Pausing12:22 - Jobs, The BLS & JOLTS22:26 - Feds Dual Mandate?24:55 - COT Positioning28:02 - Institution Interest31:40 - Base Effects & CPI33:50 - Silver Markets & ETFS37:09 - Miners & Sentiment38:48 - Efficiency & Production42:44 - Information Sources46:22 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Seasonality and sentiment in the precious metal markets.The Feds path forward and the problems with it's dual mandate.Silver as a sentiment gauge for gold and institutional interest. Guest Links:Website: https://www.zealllc.com/Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions. After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning. By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters. Customers raved, and many millions of dollars of newsletter sales later Adam was blessed to become a self-made millionaire. He is very thankful to be living his dream, and plans to research, trade, and share wisdom through newsletters for the rest of his life. Adam is a Christian saved by Jesus Christ. He and his wife are greatly blessed with 2 children, and they live in Colorado.