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Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization and capability. On this episode of Overwatch, Critical Threats Project Director Frederick W. Kagan and Retired Army General James Dubik discuss the feasibility of the Russian plan and its likely goals. They also discuss the challenges and benefits that come with undertaking this reform and expansion while the Russian military is actively engaged in a costly war with Ukraine. Dubik and Kagan assess the Russian plan by comparing it to Soviet and American training and reform efforts during and between other wars of the 20th and 21st centuries. This discussion also considers the Russian plan's implications for NATO.

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst and Geospatial Team Lead George Barros discuss the effects of HIMARS and other advanced Western weapons deliveries on the conflict and the nature of Vladimir Putin's so-called red lines in the conflict. George provides insight into how ISW produces its world-renowned maps of the war in Ukraine. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Karolina Hird discuss the Russian military's struggles on the battlefield and the challenges faced by Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine. Karolina explains how ISW uses open sources to track human rights abuses and Russian repression measures in occupied territory. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Kateryna Stepanenko discuss the influence of milbloggers on the domestic Russian information space, the role of the Wagner Private Military Company, and the nature of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.

Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain Turkey’s growing economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leaders consider Turkey’s expanding reach to be a threat to Iranian national security, and Tehran is trying to contain Turkish activity without inciting overt state-on-state conflict. Nevertheless, divergent Iranian and Turkish threat perceptions could lead to miscalculations by either side. On this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Carl, a senior analyst and the Iran team lead at the Critical Threats Project, and Ezgi Yazici, a Turkey researcher at ISW, discuss these mounting tensions and what they mean for US national security.

This episode of Overwatch is a recorded discussion between ISW analysts reflecting on a paper ISW published in June 2021 entitled Iraq 2021-2022: A Forecast. The discussion will cover what we got right and wrong in forecasting Iraq's political and security trajectories, the risk of civil war in Iraq, how foreign interference and regional competitions are continuing to destabilize the Iraqi state, and where Iraq, and the region, may be headed in the months ahead. Click here to read the report.

A recent Iranian missile attack into Iraqi Kurdistan indicates the growing threat Tehran poses to the United States and its partners in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired 12 short-range ballistic missiles at Erbil, Iraq, on March 13, targeting an alleged Israeli intelligence site near the construction of the new US consulate. The attack demonstrates the Iranian leadership’s growing willingness to use increasingly aggressive and offensive capabilities to pursue external objectives and pressure regional adversaries. On this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Carl, the Iran team lead at AEI’s Critical Threats Project, joins us to discuss Iran’s strategic calculus in this context.

A new political bloc is forming in Iran, comprised primarily of relative moderates and reformists seeking to reassert their political influence in the regime. This bloc includes prominent Iranian politicians, such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who have become increasingly marginalized in the political establishment in recent years. This bloc could complicate the intra-regime struggle to determine who will succeed the supreme leader when he leaves the scene. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with Iran analysts Nicholas Carl and Kitaneh Fitzpatrick from the Critical Threats Project to discuss this emerging bloc and what it might mean for US-Iran relations.

Russia continues to increase its military forces poised on Ukraine's border. The situation is tense, deadly, and complicated. On this episode, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark explains the current military picture and what he and his team believe will happen next.

Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” may do in 2022. Kat and Zach will also offer insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the Iraqi and Lebanese governments.

Over the past year, ISW’s Russia team has closely tracked Russia’s efforts to integrate Belarus, its growing threats to Ukraine’s independence, and a range of other malign activities elsewhere in the world. Escalating events in 2022 and Putin's need to set conditions ahead of the Russian Presidential election in 2024 will likely force the Kremlin to either double down upon or pull back from these efforts. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia team lead Mason Clark discusses the inflection points that he and his team will be watching for. He’ll also share some of his predictions for Russia’s activity abroad over the coming year.

The Taliban’s takeover of the Afghan government in 2021 brought the biggest shift in that country since the US invasion 20 years ago. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Afghanistan Researcher Peter Mills to talk about what to expect in Afghanistan in 2022. Peter will provide his prognosis for the Taliban government as well as share some specific inflection points that he’ll be watching for.

A tumultuous 2021 shows no signs of letting up for Turkey. Caught between the competing interests of Russia, the US, and the EU while being led by a man who believes Turkey ought to assert itself as an equal to those powers means Turkey’s limited resources will remain tightly strained in 2022. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW research director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Turkey Researcher Ezgi Yazici to talk about her forecast for Turkey in 2022. Ezgi provides her thoughts on the political trajectory of President Erdogan’s government, its entanglements in Syria, and its ongoing economic woes.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has started a new phase in the war against the Islamic State. Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is the local Afghan branch of Islamic State, which fought first the US-backed Afghan government and has continued to fight against the new Taliban government in the hope of creating a hardline Islamic caliphate. IS-KP has targeted Taliban fighters and officials, attacked economic infrastructure to prevent the government from providing services to the populace, and attempted to provoke a sectarian conflict by attacking religious minorities. On this episode of Overwatch, Afghanistan researcher Peter Mills discusses the origins, goals, numbers, and tactics of IS-KP, as well as their threat level to both Afghanistan and the US.

Thousands of migrants from the Middle East have become stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland, creating a dangerous stand-off between the two countries. With the European Union behind Poland and Russia supporting Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, the situation has ramifications for stability far beyond the frigid forests of this Eastern European border region. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Lead Russia Analyst Mason Clark discusses the origins of this crisis and its ramifications for the European Union, Russia, and beyond.

Turkish President Erdogan may launch a new incursion into Syria that could target the Syrian Defense Forces, the US partner in the counter-ISIS fight. Turkish troops assembled in border areas near SDF positions and Turkish-occupied parts of northern Syria in late October, though deployments appear to have slowed since then. On this episode of Overwatch, Matt McInnis and Ezgi Yazici discuss what a new Turkish incursion could look like and the effects that such a development would have on the broader region. Visit www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isws-overwatch-podcast-series to see a map that ISW produced to help readers follow along with this discussion.

The Defense Department recently declassified a briefing Dr. David Crist prepared in 2020 on US war planning in the Middle East against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1987.  On this episode of Overwatch, Dr. Crist talks to ISW Research Director Matthew McInnis about this assessment and what it may reveal about a possible future conflict with Iran and strategic competition with Russia and China in the region.  Dr. David Crist is the Executive Director of the Joint Staff History and Research Office and an advisor to US Central Command Commander General Frank McKenzie. He is also the author of “The Twilight War” which is still considered a must-read for students of the US-Iran conflict since the 1979 revolution.   You can see the entire declassified briefing on the ISW website. 

We’re nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has collapsed. Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, China, and other powers remaining in the region are openly jostling for influence in the vacuum left by US forces. Katherine Zimmerman, a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, has followed US counterterrorism issues and the war in Afghanistan closely. On this episode of Overwatch, she discusses the state of US counterterrorism efforts and American involvement in Afghanistan.

Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian understanding of hybrid war. In our first episode on this topic, we discussed the ways in which Russia’s definition of this term differs from the West and why those differences need to be understood by US leaders and policymakers. On this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark, ISW’s Russia team lead, talks about the places and ways in which Russia’s concept of hybrid war is affecting reality.

Russian leaders and policymakers use the term “hybrid war” to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a mix of conventional and asymmetrical means. US leaders cannot allow this semantic difference to go unexamined because those same Russian leaders believe they are on the defensive side of a hybrid war perpetrated by the West against Russia. Failing to appreciate the nuances of the Russian interpretation of hybrid war is therefore akin to ignoring a potential adversary’s rules of engagement and could easily lead to policy missteps and unintended consequences. Mason Clark leads ISW’s Russia Team and has been closely studying the Russian definition of hybrid war. He joins this episode of Overwatch to talk about the importance of this term’s definition in US-Russia relations.