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Open Model Project
35 minutes | 5 hours ago
Ranked Choice Voting and the NYC Mayoral Race
We asked you to vote on what race you wanted next and it wasn't even close. The New York Democratic mayoral primary, set for June 22, is our next stop. With incumbent Bill de Blasio term limited, a huge and growing field of would-be successor are lining up, most prominently 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang. Complicating NYC's already byzantine electoral landscape is the first-even rollout of ranked choice voting, where voters get to pick their 1st through 5th choice candidates, who are then sorted through rounds of instant runoffs until someone in the crowded field scrapes together a majority. How do you campaign in this kind of race? How do you poll it? How do you even begin to model and forecast it? To help us get a handle on things, we've brought in ranked choice voting expert Paul Butler, creator of ranked.vote. Follow along with our interactive polls and forecasts at OpenModelProject.org. Follow us on Twitter at @OpenModelProj. If you'd like to see more independent forecasting and unbiased polling in your world, please consider supporting us on Patreon at patreon.com/openmodel. Big thanks to our latest (truth be told, also our first) patron Zachary Cramer, who as a "Pollster" level supporter will be enjoying early access to our in-house polling, VIP access to our Discord server, and other behind-the-scenes goodies.
57 minutes | 7 days ago
The Model Went Down to Georgia
So how'd our prototype do in the twin Georgia Senate runoffs? Polling: bad. Forecast: not so bad. Hey, it's a process. It's also lots of fun. So join us as we vivisect the model and ponder how best to monkey with the assumptions, weights, and screens, as eye upcoming ballot brawls like the (possible) Newsom recall and the NYC mayoral primary. In the episode, we reference Northwestern data scientist Thomas Miller's supremely accurate Georgia forecast. You can follow Miller on Twitter at @virtualtout. Follow along with our interactive polls and forecasts at OpenModelProject.org. Follow us on Twitter at @OpenModelProj. If you'd like to see more independent forecasting and unbiased polling in your world, please consider supporting us on Patreon at patreon.com/openmodel.
23 minutes | 14 days ago
Introducing the Open Model Project
The Open Model Project is an initiative of American Civics Exchange, aiming to bring radical transparency and crowd-based wisdom to traditional election modeling. In this sneak peek at the 1st episode of the OMP podcast, Flip Pidot sits down with pollster/forecaster Peter Hurford to discuss the inspiration behind the project, why we think it may help fix what's broken with black box forecasters, and what it all means for the Georgia Senate runoffs. Follow us at @openmodelproj and get your hands on the model at openmodelproject.org. Finally... we intend to poll a bunch of overlooked races in 2021, which gets expensive. If you'd like to see more independent forecasting and unbiased polling in your world, please consider supporting us on Patreon at patreon.com/openmodel.
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