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We told you that you could see a stock melt-up going into the end of the year, and now we're here. Money's come off the sidelines in droves! Money managers are getting reinvested, and the big question comes: Is this it? Have we gotten the melt-up? We are also going to hit on what you should be doing with your wealth plan right now and how you should be setting that up. We're going to break it down for you, so be sure to check out the episode!You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Revenge of the nerds! [1:13]Growth that’s made everything else pale in comparison [3:04]Don’t get tricked into thinking you’re diversified [5:13]The market doesn't care about valuation...until it does [6:08]The Tipping Point [9:05]Knowing what you own and why you own it [10:45]Taking money from your portfolio [12:42]Something more important than just a good stock idea [16:02]Hidden Facts of Finance [17:36]Lending money where you’re guaranteed to lose [19:02]ETFs cross a milestone for the second time ever in 2020 [21:33]Tech’s outperformance has “normal stocks” paling in comparisonWe’ve made a killing in tech stocks over the last 10 years. Its growth has way outperformed what it does historically. Historically, it’s been normal to average about 10% per year. We've seen 18% per year for the last 10 years even though the rest of the value and small-cap companies have done about average. It's not that these small-cap companies are horrible performers, it’s that growth has been so ridiculous over the last 10 years, it makes everything pale in comparison.This week on the tipping point...knowing what you own and why you own it!Up until the pandemic hit back in March, many people would ask why they own bonds? They don't pay very much. It costs a lot to buy them. However, as the pandemic hit, bonds were the only thing in their portfolio that was profitable, and now you have the ability to take some profits from the bonds and buy back into the market when it's low. A bond is something that is negatively correlated. That just means it goes up and down differently than the rest of your financial assets. For more on this check out the episode!This week’s hidden facts of financeIt may surprise you that when a Democrat takes over the presidency from a Republican (which, for the record, we're NOT saying has happened yet) the average cycle return has been 43.6%. What usually shocks everyone to find out is that a market under a Democratic president historically has done better than a market under a Republican president. Just so you don't get too concerned, it doesn't matter if it's a Democrat or Republican because historically the market's always going up as long as SOMEONE is sitting in the oval office! Check out the show for more hidden facts of finance!Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Today, we're talking about AFTER the election, we’ve talked about the election for the last couple of weeks and we warned you not to let the election get in the way of making good investment decisions. The economy is recovering. And what do you know, the Payne’s were right. The market has been straight up since the election. Well, it's theoretically over, right? We're not 100% sure, but it looks like Biden will be in the White House come January. With elections over and the economy starting to recover the question is... What do you do with your money now? What strategies do you utilize? What should you be looking for? We're also going to talk about other things that can get in the way of good investing and things you need to watch out for in your portfolio to make sure you get on YOUR path to financial independence. Let's hit it. Let's get into it. We've got a great show for you this morning so don’t miss it!You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The economic recovery that’s being missed [2:01]Is it a matter of change or waiting on the rules? [3:42]American’s finding a spend save balance? [5:46]Economist still casting doubt about spending [7:08]The Tipping Point: overconfidence in your ability to manage your portfolio [9:09]The Market is the most humbling place in the Universe! [10:52]The flip side...lack of confidence [13:27]Good investing’s just not sexy [15:48]Growth vs value [17:42]Hidden Facts of Finance [19:47]Cash is trash [22:19]Mind-blowing recovery and the why behind uncertainty Unemployment today is where economists thought it was going to be at the end of next year. We're there a year ahead of schedule. Historically the stock market makes about 10% after net of inflation you're about 6-7%. In the last two weeks, the market went up almost 14%. So that's like two years’ worth of return in two weeks! How’s that for recovery!Are the political leaders on Capitol Hill smarter than the captains of industry that run our biggest companies? We think companies just sit back and say, okay, what are the roadblocks they're going to create in Washington, DC. They wait until the rules are set so that they can figure out how to maximize profit margins based on their new rules. That's why there's so much uncertainty around elections. It's not a matter of if it’s going to change things. It's a matter of the captains of industry, the companies that you all invest in and that we all own, are waiting to see what the new rules are so they can figure out how to get around them to make the most money for their shareholders and for themselves.This week on the tipping pointWe've talked about this a lot in the past, but your ego and overconfidence can get in the way of a solid financial plan. We've seen many cases that have led to destruction in people's financial life because their ego and their overconfidence in their abilities to manage a portfolio made them blind to real holes or issues within their financial plan. Today, we will break that down so that our listeners don't make the same mistakes with their portfolios. If anyone can see holes in portfolios, it's the three of us so tune in to get the goods!This week’s hidden facts of financeVehicle sales have experienced a V-shape recovery, increasing 36% from the 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2020. Auto manufacturing contributes more jobs than any other industry when you take into account all the parts, and suppliers, aftermarket servicers, replacement parts suppliers, and support services for a major auto plant. In hindsight, it's not surprising that car sales went up. Who wants to ride the subway during a pandemic! We've seen more New York license plates in New Jersey than ever before. People are coming out of the cities. They're buying in the suburbs of New Jersey and the subway doesn't get you there! So car sales are increasing. Not a shock in hindsight, but who could have predicted that last March. It’s definitely one of the reasons why the unemployment numbers have come down so much over the course of the last couple of months. Check out this segment for more hidden facts of finance!Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

We are finally past the election so we can put that worry behind us... and pick up a new one. As the economy continues to open we’ve seen reports of a spike in Coronavirus cases. Reports have come in about countries in Europe, like France and Germany, starting to lockdown again. The uncertainty has shifted to how we are going to keep reopening the economy. However, if you look PAST those headlines of “Europe Shutting Down” you will see that schools are still open, you can still get a haircut, it’s not the kind of lockdowns we faced in March, it’s more like lockdown lite! Listen to the episode for the full story and loads of other great info! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The news in plain sight [0:33]The certainty of uncertainty [1:46]Necessity is the mother of invention [3:23]What’s going to drive stocks higher? [5:12]Dividends are going up! [6:40]The Tipping Point [8:53]How do you get money in the market without being all or nothing? [11:23]Have a trusted advisor to rebalance your portfolio [14:03]Building your Arc before the flood comes [16:16]Hidden Facts of Finance [18:21] More signs of a recovering economy Stock dividends are going up. Income's going up. It’s like every company is saying, “Hey, our picture looks good for next year. We're comfortable paying out some of our profits now.” They weren't comfortable with that just a couple of months ago. We think that's a vote for the future! If you're comfortable paying out your profits, that says your future looks pretty good. A stat we came across recently shows 1.5 million businesses formed in the last quarter. That’s 80% quarter over quarter. That means that as we're coming out of this recession, businesses are getting started. People are looking for opportunities and they're doing it on a huge scale and that has to bode well for the economy next year, and just looking forward to it in general. This week on the tipping pointTrying to pick individual stocks is like trying to pick the winner in a beauty contest. Your definition of beauty doesn't determine who the winner is. You may think that one candidate is better looking or more talented than another candidate but only the judges’ opinions matter. If you're going to pick the winner of a beauty contest you have to figure out what the judge's view of beauty is. Figuring out what the judges think is the same thing as picking stock in the market. It's not about picking good companies, it's about figuring out what the judges— the people that are buying stocks— want and what THEY consider good companies. And you know what, unless you can read people's minds, you might as well just go to the racetrack. Check out this awesome episode to hear more! This week’s hidden facts of financeUS online holiday shopping is expected to grow 33% this year up $189 billion! Amazon plans to hire 100,000 temporary workers for the holidays. That’s a good reminder job growth follows economic growth. Amazon tripled their profits last quarter and based on their conference call, they expect the fourth quarter to be even bigger. It just goes to show, you can never discount the American consumer. The sun rises in the East—mom and American spend. Listen to the segment for more interesting facts! Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Maybe it’s time to get into cash, wait this thing out, see what happens. Then when cooler heads prevail make some investment decisions later...what do you think?By the time you listen to this, the election will have taken place but it may not be over. The volatility caused may still be lingering as well. We just hope you aren’t sitting around— in cash— waiting for the perfect time to get back in the game only to miss the biggest melt-up of the decade! We hope you’ve been listening as we’ve told you to stay in so you don’t miss the big move. It can happen in an instant and if you aren’t in when it comes you’ll never make it up! You have to keep the long term goal in sight. Join us this week as we talk about this and more and perhaps have a few (much needed) laughs along the way. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Have we been wrong all along? [0:46]Where’s the bigger risk? [2:38]Things people aren’t paying attention to [4:22]Something we hear time & time again [6:22]Investing in next year...today [8:06]5 days equals 30% of a 50 year period [9:26]The Tipping Point: Now or Later? [10:11]Have your people talk to...YOUR people [12:30]To debt or not to debt [14:28]Are you up to date? [15:56]The perfect estate plan [18:05]Hidden Facts of Finance [19:33]We HAVE been here before and it led us to the roaring ’20s [21:27]Sometimes you don’t see things you aren’t looking forThere are some things happening that aren’t getting attention. Everyone is really hot on the Teslas of the world but they aren't talking about things like small caps— which have started to do really well. There many things in different areas in the market that are improving and people aren't paying attention. A lot of people don't realize that China made a new high last week. The focus is on the S&P 500 and there’s a recovery happening around the world that’s being missed.This week on the tipping pointWhen it comes to making decisions on your financial plan, sometimes it's more beneficial to defer action other times it's critical to address something right away. How do you know when to do what? In this episode, we discuss some different financial matters and decide if it's good or bad to put them off. One example. If you're saving in your retirement accounts— your 401ks or 403B's— you're putting money in pretax, so you are deferring taxes. The problem is eventually when you're 72 you have to start taking it out THEN it becomes what we call a ticking tax time bomb. Those required minimum distributions could potentially push you into a much higher bracket making it a very tax-inefficient portfolio. If you're a younger investor, you might want to look at that Roth 401k option where it's after-tax. The beauty in a Roth 401k, or some other Roth account, is that all that growth is tax-free later. Listen to the episode for more examples! This week’s hidden facts of financeYou’ve probably heard people voice concern about this pandemic because we've never in history had to deal with something like this. However, the fact is we have! We had the Spanish flu in 1918, 1919, & 1920, last checked— there's NO vaccine for the Spanish flu. How did our economy recover then? How did the world recover from the Spanish flu? We don't really know, but we do know it recovered, we know we have been here before. To top that off the 1918 Spanish flu was followed by the roaring ‘20s, one of the greatest economies in the history of the planet! Something to look forward to? We think so!Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

It seems week after week it's the same story. A lot of uncertainty out there. Most Wall Street strategists have been negative and wary. Bob, Ryan, and Chris had been very bullish and the market continues to go higher. Bob, Ryan, and Chris continue to be right while strategists continue to be wrong. What's going on? There’s a fog of uncertainty that seems to be shadowed by the fact that earnings are starting to get strong. In truth, of the 10% of the S&P companies that recently reported their earnings, 86% topped the consensus expectations. Even though the analysts and the economist continue to be pessimistic we’ve had good economic numbers on a weekly basis and quarterly earnings are off to a phenomenal start. Listen to the episode for more info. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The news in plain sight [0:35]Is economic growth picking up? [2:04]Elections affecting pullbacks in the market [3:49]Reality... [5:03]Something stocks love [5:54]The irony of right now [7:02]The Tipping Point [9:05]Why we’ve never had a client hold a bond fund [12:52]The best advice you can give anybody right now [13:53]900 times forward earnings! [15:54]Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06]Past performance doesn’t tell you what will happen going forward [19:53] Don’t miss the melt-up because you were sitting in cashThe great irony right now is that you may think that by going to cash you're playing it safe, but in reality, what you're doing is risking a huge melt up to the upside. Because of low-interest rates and de-urbanization the housing and automobile markets are growing like crazy. We've been talking about this trend a lot. In New York City people are leaving and going to the suburbs. Then they need to buy a car, so car sales are up 50% in the last couple of months. So that part of the economy is already cooking. What if we start to travel again on top of that? It's almost like it's going to be the economy on steroids versus where we were in January pre-pandemic. We’re really scared to miss the upside here and investors should be too. You shouldn't be worried about another big sell-off, which could happen, but realistically we probably won't see one as we did in March. But what you want in on this year is a huge melt up to the upside. If you miss that move, if you miss that return, that's basically your next decade of move in stocks. If you want more on this topic and more check out this episode of Payne Points of Wealth!This week on the tipping pointThe best advice we can give right now is that the #1 thing you need to know— the only true hedge in any portfolio— isn't gold, it isn't buying puts, it isn't trading the market. It's owning high-quality bonds that have a fixed rate of interest and a maturity date. That’s the only hedge we’ve ever seen in 45 years that works, and it works every single time. You want to protect your principal owned bonds that have a fixed rate of return and maturity date and make sure they're high quality. And be sure you have someone who knows what they're doing to be certain that they're high quality! Listen to the tipping point segment for more great tips!This week’s hidden facts of financeThe best performing stock’s past performance is 100% indicative of… past performance. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen going forward. When a stock goes up 100% it typically doesn't go up 100% the next year. At one point this year, before its stock tumbled, Nikola was worth more than Ford Motor’s $30 billion market capitalization. It now trades at 7.4 billion. The biggest difference between Nikola and Ford is that Ford actually has earnings. Just to remind everybody of the risk in the market, you could have purchased Nikola stock at 80 in June and it’s 20 today.Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

The real loss in the market is when you succumb to your emotions. There are many markets and they are all affected by different situations. None of them ever drops to zero, even though that seems to be the driving fear behind so many decisions to get out instead of staying in for the long haul. Listen to this episode of Payne Points of Wealth to hear more on how to combat this fear and many more valuable tips. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Why the market doesn’t care what everyone else is worried about [1:22]Secret indicators nobody knows about [3:08]Things that aren’t being talked about [5:46]Being smarter than your DNA [8:14]The tipping point [10:10]A picture that saves you 3000 words [13:30]Fear of no control [17:55]Hidden facts of Finance [19:50]The death bell ringing at the movies [21:36]The superpower that isn’t growing [22:12]The second biggest total on record for the worst thing you can own [24:39] Opportunity is calling… are you listening? We are all human beings and we project a future based on our own most recent experiences, on the other hand, the stock market never looks back. It’s always moving forward. Always pricing in what’s coming months and years down the road. The market tells you every day where the opportunity is. The question is… are you listening? Check out this episode for a wealth of tips on how to be a better listener!This week on the tipping pointShould you have an exit strategy if things get bad? What if there is a sell-off between now and the end of the year? We think you have to be comfortable with a couple of laws we call protecting your portfolio against downturns. A big part of that is bear markets, it's not that uncommon and it's going to happen over time. Markets go down, but they also go up, it doesn't mean you have to get in or out. Overcome the fear that arises from negative news by not putting all of your money in one place— be diversified! You don't want to bet it all on one situation, you want to have an ALL situations portfolio. That way no matter what happens— whether the market goes up or down— you have something that can benefit or something that can protect you. Listen to the Tipping Point segment for the full story and the answers to the questions above.This week’s hidden facts of financeThe outcome of the US election doesn't matter to most Chinese companies whose ownership and business operations are largely domestic. Over the last six months, we’ve heard “I don't want a Chinese company in my portfolio” or “I don't want a company that does business with China, in my portfolio” so we made a list of stocks they can own— there were none! If you have a portfolio of domestic companies and you own a great American company and the CEO gets up and says there are 1.4 billion potential customers for our product. But because you requested not to do business with China, we're not going to sell anything to those 1.4 billion customers, we're going to let our competition do it. I'll tell you what I'm doing that day. I'm selling that stock and buying the stock of the competition. Check out the segment for other random facts!Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

If You're Sitting in Cash Your Biggest Risk is the Cost of Opportunity, Ep 09Politics still have things stirred up but the market seems to be handling it better than people are. Use this volatility as your ally because it seems like fear versus market action is disconnected right now. Just because YOU think the market is going to drop due to election results (whatever they may be) doesn’t mean it WILL. Never discount the American consumer's ability to spend money. It’s not smart to bet against it. What happens when we get a vaccine or when we get comfortable again? People start traveling, taking cruises, and flying again. The lockdown economy made a ton of money while everyone was in solitary confinement but what about the un-locked-down economy? It's about to boom again. No matter who's in office. Tune in to this week’s episode for the full scoop on this and more! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...News in plain sight: POTUS & FLOTUS’ covid effect on the market [0:39]Your political bias and your portfolio [1:45]Are things going to hell in a handbasket? [3:40]What’s driving the economy? [5:03]Will consumers start to spend again...did they ever stop? [7:24]The Tipping Point [10:53]Holding stock in the company that cuts your checks… is it a good idea? [15:52]Hidden Facts of Finance [21:30]Old school over new school in gains [28:06] Appreciation isn’t the only returnA big thing that people miss in terms of a portfolio of investments is that the return comes not only from appreciation but also from income. When you have a portfolio of high-quality bonds— and you should ONLY own high-quality bonds— and you also have high-quality stocks in that portfolio, you're actually making money every day. People have these buy low and sell high ideas and that's garbage! Stay invested! A better way of looking at it is to get paid while you wait for your money to double. That's the way you should look at it. What it comes down to is your biggest risk is not the election, it's that person you look at in the mirror every day. It’s their political convictions that are getting in the way and stopping you from being a good unbiased investor. If you miss a big move up in stocks, you never get that return back and if you've already missed the summer melt-up, don't miss the next move up too! Stop sitting in cash, get in, and stay in!This week on the tipping pointVanguard released its annual report called How America Saves, with several interesting facts about the investment world. Studies showed that 78% of investors use target date funds in their 401k with 54% using only target date funds. Another interesting fact is that 74% of all Vanguard 401k plans offer a Roth option, but only 12% of participants in those plans had elected the Roth option. The last stat we want to mention is that in the 10 years between 2010 and 2020, the number of people holding company stock in their 401k dropped by 16%. What might be the reason for this? And would you consider it a positive trend? You’ll want to catch the episode to get our thoughts— good, bad, and the ugly— on these stats. This week’s hidden facts of financeBall Corporation recorded the lowest coupon ever for a junk bond with a maturity of five years at 2.8, seven 5% in August. The Double-B rated market, AKA junk bonds, is about 55% of the high yield bond market. As of the end of July, bond buyer beware. When you look at bonds and your portfolio, you want to have two things… you want to have a bond that comes due and you want to have a fixed coupon. Well, this bond does have a fixed coupon of 2.875%, but it may not come due. The problem with junk is that they can go out of business. They have a higher probability of failing. When you invest in bonds you want safety. Returning your money's important return of your money is paramount. Listen to the full segment to hear the rest of our hidden facts of finance! Resources & People MentionedVanguard report on How America SavesSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

As headwinds continue to blow, uncertainty continues to be at heightened levels. What we're hearing and seeing is everyone feeling like the economy is starting to stall. That we've had a V-shape recovery and there's this consensus out there that maybe it's over. Top that with an impending second wave of the pandemic as the weather gets colder and the question we are getting over and over again is… Is it time to cash out before the election? Is the economic rebound finally over? Do you think that means that everybody's thinking the same thing at the same time? Could that also mean that the market may have already priced in all this news? Join us on this episode of Payne Points of Wealth to find out. >>>>>>>>>>>>>.PLAYER GOES HERE

Volatility & Uncertainty are your friends… dressed in a mask trying to scare you to death, Ep 07The real story this week is that election uncertainty is upon us! You're hearing more and more news about how the election will affect the markets. Contributing factors causing volatility are the recent death of a supreme court justice, tension in the political realm, riots going on in different cities, all the while we are STILL in the middle of a pandemic. What else could go wrong here? The big question on many investor's minds this week is should I... Stay in cash? Get invested? If I am invested, is it time to go to cash and just wait for this thing to blow over? Listen to the episode to get our take on the answers to these questions! >>>>>>>>>>>>>.PLAYER GOES HERE

In pandemonic times, zero-commission trading platforms have become the casino of Americans who are cooped up at home. Companies like Robinhood are offering zero-commission trading, making people less hesitant to trade. That combined with the fact that alcohol sales are up 14% since the beginning of COVID and a 92% increase in options trades this year leads us to think there may be a lot of people making some questionable trade decisions.Sitting at home without the typical legal gambling outlets the stock market seems to have become the place where huge bets are being made by those looking to satisfy their gambling fix. At the casino, you put money on the table — that’s what buying a call option equates to — putting money on a table and hoping for a return. Options trading is challenging and not something the average investor should try to tackle on their own. Following trends isn’t investing it’s speculation. In a game of speculation, the house is more likely to win, so I guess our advice today would be don't drink and trade and stay out of the casino. Hopefully some good will come out of this though and people will start to understand investing and jump in for the long haul by buying individual stocks or index funds because that’s where the REAL money is made. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Drinking options...oh, wait we meant options trading. [0:39]Tech bubble talk. [3:01]“Paradigm shift” [4:25]A huge consequence of concentrating your money in one place. [5:08]Questions to ask yourself? [7:24]The tipping point: Investment hearsay. [9:00]When it comes to financial planning what’s best for you? [14:39]Hidden facts of finance: Retail blues. [18:37]Tech bubble, same old same, or something different this time?Let’s talk tech bubble... again...it’s prime time in the news when talking about financial markets and what we are hearing is that it is different this go around. That it’s not the same as the tech bubble of 99-2000 when there was this big proliferation of cheap online trading sites, doctors and lawyers were quitting day jobs to become day traders, and you had this belief that there was this new economy. But wait… doesn’t that sound a lot like 99-2000 after all?When it comes down to it you have to ask yourself, is mean reversion still a thing, or are those lofty tech valuations eventually going to come back down to earth. You should also question whether or not you believe we're going to beat this virus? Is the economy going to reopen again? If it does are all those stocks that are benefiting from lockdown going to be great long-term buys. As the economy picks up and grows, as we go out, drive more, and fly more, as we go back to our normal routines how will that affect the market? What stocks are going to benefit from that? Or is this new normal going to last forever? If history has taught us anything it’s that nothing lasts forever. Investment hearsay is this week’s tipping pointWhat’s the pain point that has the biggest impact on your wealth right now? When it comes to investing your money and financial planning, we think it’s “investment hearsay”. People love to give blanketed advice. Even if they have no credentials and no professional background. They feel like it's okay to give unsolicited investment and financial planning advice and it gets consumed like it's actual gospel. We think it's really dangerous. You get this advice from cocktail parties or maybe someone very confident about how they invest their money, and a lot of times it's just completely WRONG. Are you getting dangerous advice from unqualified people?Retail blues on this week’s hidden facts of finance This week’s hidden fact is all about “retail blues”. Twenty-four(24) retailers have filed for bankruptcy from Jan - July 16, 2020! That’s more in half of this year than all of 2019 combined. We are also looking at as many as 25k stores closing in 2020 vs 9832 in 2019. This has a great deal to do with the pandemic but it’s also due to online retail. Zoom stock has zoomed up 465% in 2020 is now worth more than a hundred billion dollars. Peloton has a market cap of 25 billion after gaining 209% this year, as its stationary bikes replaced gym memberships. Netflix stock is up from $1 to a close of $500, adjusted for splits, since its debut less than two decades ago. See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesResources & People MentionedRobinhoodConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Over the past week, we’ve gotten calls from long-time clients who are asking us what sounds like a reasonable question: “Why are we not putting ALL my money in these growth stocks that keep going up?” As we said, it SOUNDS like a good plan, but it’s based on a wrong understanding of how the market works. When stocks are high — and most of the stocks in the current growth stocks are so high they are overvalued — you don’t want to buy them. Buy low and sell high is the motto of savvy investors.Ryan likens the markets over these past two weeks to a massive casino. Traders have been basing their trades on the most recent happenings in the market — tech stocks that keep going up — so they try to ride that train even further. But this week, the train hit the brakes a bit. Is it the beginning of the end?You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Finally, some tech sell-offs — and the question on everyone’s minds [0:33]The “smart money” is positioning in cheaper asset classes, not what’s hot [5:30]And the economy keeps getting better [7:55]Two fundamental things when it comes to income plans [10:26]Why your portfolio should be based on your goals and a diversified strategy [16:27]The random facts of finance that may shock you [18:03]The tech bubble could be popping, or is it just a correction?As we began to see sell-offs of tech stocks this past week, everyone began asking the question: "Is this it? Is the tech bubble about to burst?" We tend to think it’s the beginning of the end because stocks that go up when the sales of the company haven’t gone up are risky at best. The growth we’ve seen in these stocks is superficial, driven by speculation, not sound investment strategy. It’s only a matter of time before it’s over — and it looks like it could very well be over.Economists are batting 1000 — and all wrongWe’ve all got that friend or relative who continually sees the glass half empty. There are lots of reasons some people see the world through a negative lens, but one thing Bob has always said is that many people think they sound smarter when they talk negatively or critically about things. Economists these days seem to be in that boat. All they can say about the economy is skeptical, but the reality is that we’re much better off than anyone predicted and it just keeps getting better.In every dark cloud, there are silver linings and in the current situation, you can take advantage of what’s happening in the economy to profit from it. But you have to take your eyes off the glitzy, fancy-looking things out there and instead, look at the common sense things that are happening and invest in them. In this conversation, we chat about some of those and give tangible examples of how the smart money is going in this direction. Your income plan needs to have clearly defined income streamsDo you even know the different types of income that fuel your lifestyle? There are likely more types of income than you think. First, and the one most of us think of, is wages or earned income. But there is also Social Security and pensions, rental income, annuities, and interest and dividends earned on stock holdings. You want to build your retirement portfolio for income because income is what will matter most to you during retirement.But as you do so, do it in a diversified manner. You don’t want to overweight any one investment. That can bring on sudden losses that are devastating. What you need to keep in mind is that even when the market is down, interest and dividends don’t really change that much. That means interest and dividends can easily be the biggest part of your return, long term. The secret to investing is that if you own investments that pay income, and if you don’t spend that income, it gets reinvested to buy more shares for your portfolio. That is sustainable, dependable, repeatable income — and it’s smart. Listen to hear more about how you can make it happen.Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesWarren BuffettThe Blackstone GroupKansas City SouthernConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

We are beginning to sound like a broken record — you remember what a record is, don’t you? Again, we’re discussing the incredible sustained growth of tech stocks in the U.S. even though many of them, like Peloton and Tesla are not posting ANY profits. What’s going to happen with this tech bubble bursts? Are you putting yourself at risk?And why are some people so afraid of the stock market? It’s one of the only investment vehicles that on average, always goes up. That may sound like an exaggeration but it’s not. Listen to this episode to find out why we can say that, what it means for smart investors, and how you can make sure that your investment strategy is proactive rather than reactive.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The mind-numbing tech stats (worth more than all of Europe) [0:38]Doing the simple math on the top five tech companies - does it make sense? [5:47]It’s a huge opportunity cost by NOT investing your money [10:20]We always think the country we are from is the best for investing [19:01]New York City has a 20% unemployment rate. Wow! [19:35]When insiders are buying, you don’t want to be on the outside, looking in [22:55]Who will be left holding the bag when the soaring tech stocks take a dump?As one example of the insanity happening with tech stocks right now, Tesla stock continues to go up — and what does Tesla do? They issue more stock. That only benefits Tesla, not retail investors who keep buying up their stock. There are lessons to be learned here friends, and some of it comes from looking at history. Back in 2007 the European stock market was worth four times the U.S. Tech sector. Today it’s just the opposite. So, why not buy European stocks now while U.S.tech is so high as an investment in the future? The point is this: the tech stock bubble will not continue forever. Smart investors like Warren Buffett and Tim Cook (Apple’s CEO) know this. Warren is buying in Japan right now, as well as energy, and Bank of America Financial (all of which is being poo-pooed on the financial channels right now). Tim Cook just sold $130M worth stock in his own company, Apple (a tech company, by the way). What does that tell you? Would you sell your company’s stock if you were convinced the company would go up 1000-fold in the next few weeks? Diversification is a good play right now, to prepare for what’s coming.Markets are like a pendulum, swinging between fear and greedThe reason people feel like the stock market is risky is that they’ve listened to too many horror stories about someone who lost their shirt in the market. But most people who tell that tale are guilty of buying a few favorites without keeping a balanced portfolio. Yes, tech is doing extremely well right now, and nobody can tell you the day and time the current tech bubble is going to burst. So should you ride it out, hoping for the best? Hope is not a good investment strategy. You need to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to investing. Diversifying your money makes sense and it’s the strategy that’s hiding in plain sight during this tech insanity.People will always do what’s in their best interest - until they become afraidBecause people always do what’s in their best interest, many are holding cash right now, waiting out the pandemic and the upcoming election before they decide what to do with their money. But that's unwise thinking. The reality is this: holding cash is MORE risky long-term than stock market investing. Here’s why: Inflation goes up by 3% every year, so you have to grow your money to keep up with what it costs you just to live. With the average Money Market account yielding 1%, you can see what’s happening if cash is your current strategy. If you understand how the stock market works and keep a balanced portfolio, all you can do is win. The market may adjust from time to time, and when it does people become afraid, but your shares don’t disappear when the market goes down. You still own them. So should the market drop, and you keep your cash IN the market until it goes back up (and it will), you will reap the reward. Just know that the fact is that stocks have gone up over your entire lifetime, even though they pull back at times, and you can be at ease. Resources & People MentionedWarren BuffettTeslaPelotonSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

One of Bob’s favorite sayings is this: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sort of rhymes.” When it comes to financial trends and market behavior, it’s many times more true than most people realize. In this episode, we discuss the similarities today’s market has with the market conditions that existed back in 2009 — and what it could mean for the current big tech stock growth.We also have a big treat for you, our first guest, Adam Johnson. Adam’s newsletter, “Bullseye Brief” is something all three of us subscribe to and read weekly. His insights into what’s happening in the market and how to best leverage it for growth are amazing. His portfolio is up 30% this year already. Stick around, this episode is definitely worth your time.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...THE NEWS IN PLAIN SIGHTToday’s bear market turned bull [2:01]Comparing earnings in 1999 to earnings numbers we see today [3:40]OUR FIRST GUEST - Adam JohnsonAdam’s view on the markets - we’re roughly where we should have been had COVID never happened [9:40]Why Adam doesn’t care for gold because he’s about ingenuity and growth [14:26]The base case on the S&P 500 from Adam’s point of view [16:26]THE TIPPING POINTThe rules of investing [18:43]Markets tend to return to the mean, over time [20:42]THE HIDDEN FACTS OF FINANCE6 million trading accounts have been opened recently [24:50]U.S. companies are very involved in China, even its stock market [26:01]Global eCommerce is still only between 22% and 25% of sales [29:01]History doesn’t repeat itself, but it kind of rhymesWhen looking at what’s happening in today’s markets, it’s eerily similar to the 2009-2010 time frame. At the peak of the dot com bubble at that time, tech stocks were 35% of actively traded stocks. Today, big tech is trading even higher at 37%. Today’s S&P 500 is trading at 26X this year’s forward earnings, which is exactly what it was trading at back in September of 2009. And back then, the NASDAQ traded at 35X forward earnings and is trading at that same pace today.What’s the point? We just might want to consider what happened back then, after tech stock prices kept rising and rising. They didn’t stay high. They came tumbling down when the bubble burst. Are there lessons for today’s investors? Listen to hear how overvaluations and tech investing newbies may be leading investors to a similar downturn.Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat itLet’s take TESLA as an example of the craziness going on right now. Its stock is up 525% over the last 12 months and a Bank of America analyst just upgraded it. Chris just had a conversation with a client whose TESLA stock is up 80% but he’s hesitant to take the profits from it for fear it will go even higher and he'll miss out. What he’s failing to realize is that what’s happened to TESLA is not normal market behavior. When the tide goes the other way, it’s not pretty.We can see that investor behavior really hasn’t changed much over the years or through the generations. Millennials are still trading stocks that are up rather than doing the due diligence needed to make wise, long-term investments. It’s not as alluring to buy low because those stocks are not the darlings everybody is talking about. But it’s typically one of the wisest choices to make long-term.If not big tech stocks, then what?Like tech stocks that keep going up (and feel like they will never go down again), the current trends won’t continue to rise. For that reason, we want to be thinking about the next 10 years, not just about today’s trends. Our guest on this episode, Adam Johnson makes it his stock and trade to find the places to put his money that will accomplish growth long term. Currently, Adam’s investing in Biotech, Medtech, and Energy — and he has NO money in the big tech companies. What’s his result been? Admittedly, when COVID first hit, his portfolio was down 30% almost immediately, but it’s recovered completely and appears to be growing even more. Adam also believes that because the demand for oil hasn’t disappeared, coupled with the fact that it takes a very long time to jump-start oil production, we’re set for a recovery in the oil sector. He believes the equilibrium (where oil companies can both make money and can afford to invest in new wells) is somewhere in the $50 per barrel range, so there’s still plenty of room for growth if he’s right. Listen to hear Adam’s insights and to rethink your investing strategy.Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesThe Jesse Livermore book mentioned by RyanAdam Johnson, founder of Bullseye Brief (get your 45 day trial)Cheniere Energy - one of Adam’s current favoritesEnergy Transfer - another of Adam’s current favoritesRobinHood Trading PlatformConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

The stock market continues to rise in spite of the dire predictions we’re hearing from analysts and pundits. What’s that all about? As you might expect, we’ve got some ideas about what is going on and you may be surprised to hear that we tend to think the market is right and the pundits are wrong.Listen to hear why we think so and what we believe is going to happen with Big Tech companies. And... in our “Tipping Point” segment we address one of the biggest issues we see coming through our planning practice: Retirement Planning and the MYTHS that fuel mistakes. Don’t miss it!You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...THE NEWS IN PLAIN SITE:The disconnect between the market and the economy [0:33]The big tech bubble and why it can’t last [5:47]THE TIPPING POINT: Five questions you must answer when building your financial plan [8:57]Taxes are a huge issue to consider as well [14:29]THE HIDDEN FACTS OF FINANCEThe five largest companies in the index make up 23% of the entire index [18:10]Is buy and hold stock investing dead? [19:08]Is gold and silver overpriced? [20:29]As the market continues to skyrocket, many pundits are scratching their headsAs Chris points out, sometimes it feels like there would be no news if there wasn’t bad news. But that statement is NOT taking into account this fact, which is not being talked about: 84% of companies have beat analyst expectations by 22%. That’s the story of this market - everyone has been negative about the economic outlook and meanwhile the market continues to prove them dead wrong. One example from this episode:A double-dip recovery pattern was predicted. It hasn’t happened. Instead, we’ve experienced a a “V-shaped” recovery of consistent growth. How can Wall Street get it so wrong? There are many reasons for such misguided notions, and it’s what we address on this episode.Is the market missing something? Nope. It’s investors who are missing outWe keep hearing that the market is missing something, but it’s not. The market is doing what the market is supposed to do. It’s looking toward the future and has been very accurate so far. It’s Investors who are missing out on great opportunities provided by the current market. Why? Because they are worried. This whole COVID thing has everybody concerned that the market is unstable and that investing is risky right now. Pile on top of that an upcoming election and you can understand why Investors are leary. But here’s the thing, worry isn’t a good strategy. Holding onto your cash isn’t either. There are many places to put your money that will include income with growth — and I’m not talking about big tech companies.Join us for this episode. You’ll hear our opinions about how to take advantage of the market conditions we’re experiencing right now. The 80% retirement income myth is hurting lots of peopleYou’ve likely heard it said that you can plan on needing about 80% of what you currently spend each month to support your retirement years. From years of running a financial planning firm we can tell you that is simply not true. When you have more time on your hands, which you do during retirement, you tend to spend more money. The fact is that you’re going to need MORE money to live on during retirement, not less.Let’s look at a handful of the reasons we can say that so confidently.The average life expectancy is going up - that means you may have more years to fund with your retirement savingsHealth care costs are going up and retirees tend to spend more on healthcareAnd there’s the reality of taxes. You can count on about 30% of your portfolio going to taxes in the end. OUCH!The cost of living will double every 20 years, so that’s a problem when you base what you need in the future on what you’re making now.So the question you need to answer is this: “Where is that amount of income going to come from?” Said another way, “How do you make decisions about what goes into and what goes out of your portfolio?” Listen to hear how we suggest you figure out how you’re going to fill the income gap. Resources & People MentionedSee if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the PaynesConnect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.comFollow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify

Wow! The economy is doing some crazy things here as we hopefully wrap up this thing we’re all calling COVID. We’ve got big tech stocks like Amazon and Facebook continuing to rise in value, with no shortage of people still wanting to buy them. At the same time, the dollar is falling, which presents interesting opportunities of a different sort. This episode of Payne Points of Wealth features our thoughts as fiduciary advisors — from a three-generation perspective — about these issues and more. We’ve got a variety of perspectives for you to consider, so be sure you take the time to listen.You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The current growth of big tech [0:33]How creative destruction might change the game [3:20]Opportunities related to the weakening U.S. Dollar [7:05]How to get the best advice from your financial advisor (and how to choose one) [8:30]The hidden facts of finance going on behind the scene [14:26] Big tech: Wow… are you comfortable with prices at these levels?Bob says he’s getting a nose bleed from the heights the big tech stocks are reaching… and it makes sense on one level. Even 70 to 80-year-olds who have never bought anything online are now buying everything online because of COVID. As a result, you guessed it, the big tech companies behind those purchases are making bank and their stocks continue to rise. But can it go on forever? Facebook already has 40% of the world’s population using its products (Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp), so how much more upward room is there? While Bob thinks that leaves 60% of the world as a market for them to go after, Ryan isn’t so sure that’s how to look at it. How about you? Are you buying tech stocks right now? If so, what happened to the old maxim, “Buy low, sell high?” Take the time to listen to this episode and you might find a new perspective to inform your investment decisions.Tech stocks are doing great. But should you buy them?One of the things we’ve seen happen as a result of the “stay at home” orders that have been enforced worldwide is the growth of minor tech companies that are taking on the tech giants. TikTok is a great example. This “creative destruction” taking place is going to present all kinds of opportunities for investors that are unrelated to the typical big-name tech companies. But be careful. What’s trendy and popular isn’t always the best bet long term. You need the right data to make the right investing decisions because your goal should not be to buy what’s popular right now, your goal is to buy what’s going to be popular tomorrow. That requires insight that you may not have. Listen to our conversation to hear how we’d advise that you approach the issue, and learn how you can get your own complimentary financial review from Payne Capital Management.Who should you choose to help you make investment decisions?One of the most frequent questions we get here at Payne Capital Management has to do with choosing an investment advisor. How do you make the choice wisely? There are lots of titles and terms out there financial professionals use to describe themselves — wealth managers, advisors, Certified Financial Analysts, fiduciaries — how do you know which is the best fit for you? Let’s start with where you’re at right now. Who is advising you about your investment decisions today? Is it someone you can trust to have your best interests in mind or someone who’s just out to make a buck off of you? Don’t misunderstand, there’s nothing wrong with financial advisors being paid for what they do, but you need to be careful about who you choose to guide your financial decisions. During the second segment of the show today, listen to our discussion about the different types of advisors and how to go about choosing the right one. Do you need an architect or a builder? The answer might surprise you.Resources & People MentionedGet your complementary financial review from the Paynes - www.PayneCM.com/FinancialPlanRobin Hood Online TradingAAII Investor Sentiment SurveyWarren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chrishttp://PayneCM.com Follow on TwitterFollow on FacebookFollow on LinkedInSubscribe on YouTubeFollow on InstagramSubscribe to Payne Points of WealthOn Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify