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26 minutes | a year ago
MM #189 – Stocks rises are mostly Fed-fueled but this is not QE
Stocks continue rising and ignoring depressing news. The Federal Reserve is the primary driver. We explain what the Fed is doing, why it is not QE and what’s next for stocks. You are welcome to listen, subscribe and provide feedback. A quick history for Fed action: The Federal Reserve is not only moving rates but also modifying its balance sheet – squeezing and enlarging it once again. Repo market operations: The recent rise in the Fed’s bond holdings is of short term bonds – and this makes a substantial difference. The bank’s intervention to lower repo rates is therefore NOT QE. Stocks rally: Coronavirus, the global slowdown, and other factors are not stopping equities, at least not in the US. Can this continue? Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Market-Movers-Feb-17th-2020.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
26 minutes | a year ago
MM #188 – Is Europe dragging the global economy down? A virtual tour of the world
After a hiatus, Lior Cohen and Yohay Elam return with a virtual tour around the world, kicking off in Germany and encompassing the globe. What’s next for Europe, the US, and the central bank policy? You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. Germany in manufacturing recession: The old continent’s largest economy and powerhouse is struggling. How is it related to China and how much is it homegrown? And can Berlin change? Comparisons to the US: The world’s largest economy suffered a mini-recession in 2015-2016, with the Federal Reserve reacting and pausing. That was also triggered mostly by China. What will the Fed do this year? Does debt matter?: The US is accumulating more debt, without anybody caring. Will the same happen in Germany? ECB support: Christine Lagarde, the new chief of the European Central Bank, kicked off a strategic review. Can the Frankfurt-based institution change? Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Market-Movers-Jan-13th-2020.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
19 minutes | 2 years ago
MM #187 – How bad is the global slowdown? Examining the three main economies
Everybody is talking about the global slowdown. Central banks all over the world have responded, but also governments need to do something. Are they doing enough? You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. US: The world’s No. 1 central bank made an abrupt U-turn by removing rate hikes off the agenda and announcing an early end to the balance sheet reduction program. The government is already on a spending spree. China: The world’s No. 2 economy unleashed credit by loosening monetary policy and government spending is also stimulating the economy. This came in the face of the trade war with the US which is now waning. Europe: The old continent is the sick man of the world. The ECB does not have a lot of ammunition and a lot depends on Draghi’s successor. Italy is in recession and Germany isn’t doing much better, but both countries are not doing enough to stimulate the economy. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Market-Movers-April-20th-2019.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
28 minutes | 2 years ago
MM #186 – Are markets too optimistic on the Fed, China, and Brexit?
After a dark December, markets have become calm and optimistic about everything. IS this positive sentiment justified? We examine the three key topics: the Fed, Brexit, and China’s economy. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. Fed: Markets have discounted a rate hike this year and even see a rate cut. They may have gone too far as a mix of inflation, job gains, and other factors can push Powell and co. to raise rates at least once. The next meeting is critical. Brexit: The clock is ticking towards B-Day and the default is a hard Brexit. We examine the options and look for the “panic moment.” The pound may be too calm. China: The world’s second-largest economy is slowing down and offers some stimulus amid growing debt. Is it enough? Trade wars and savings are not helping. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Market-Movers-February-5th-2019.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
33 minutes | 2 years ago
MM #185 – What to expect from the Fed, trade, and the Brexit saga
The most powerful central bank is set to raise rates but there is a lot of uncertainty. Uncertainty also dominates trade talks and Trump’s reactions, as well as Brexit, where everything is up in the air. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. Everything to know ahead of the Fed: Is the Fed leaning to the dovish side? The economy is showing some signs of a slowdown but doesn’t discount the Fed as dovish. We analyze the economy, the Fed’s intentions, and provide our forecasts for the decision, and the all-important dot plot. Are markets leading the Fed or the other way around? Trade troubles: The US and China are getting closer, but then also hurting each other. Markets are becoming sensitive to Trump’s trade tirades, and markets also have an impact on the President. We discuss the current state of play and what we can expect from the Washington, Beijing, and markets for the next moves. Brexit: The sage of the UK’s exit from the EU has reached the skies. We bring you up to speed with the three scenarios and what we can expect as the clock ticks towards Brexit day. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Market-Movers-December-14th-2018.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
24 minutes | 2 years ago
MM #184 – Are stocks free falling or is it a buying opportunity?
US stocks are falling from the highs and are officially in correction territory. But are the bears in full control? We analyze the reasons for the drop and argue about the next moves before providing an update on Brexit. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. What’s going on with stocks?: The Fed is raising interest rates and plans more moves. Trump’s policy against China is taking its toll but that is not new either. Emerging markets, Italy, and Brexit are also in the mix but this is not breaking news. What about companies’ earnings? Is it a long due correction or just a mood swing? Brexit: Talks are stuck after the EU Summit with no new one in November. We provide a quick update on the impasse and lay out the possible scenarios for a deal and for the pound. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Market-Movers-October-29th-2018.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
31 minutes | 3 years ago
MM #183 – Too hot or too cold? The world is watching the Fed
IS the Fed’s policy hawkish or dovish? We dive into the US economy and the central bank’s policy which impacts global markets and then move to oil prices. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. Ahead of the Fed: The US economy is doing well, well, on most figures. But where is inflation? Is it correlated to wages? While we know the Fed will raise rates in September, the future is wide open. Should they cool down the economy or let it run? We discuss trade, fiscal policy, the mid-term elections and everything in between. Oil on the rise: The focus is elsewhere but petrol prices continue rising. We delve into recent IEA, EIA, and OPEC data and try to find the balance between supply and demand in our global tour of oil-producing countries, backwardation, and contango. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Market-Movers-September-15-2018.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
38 minutes | 3 years ago
MM #182 – Brexit summer blues, trade troubles
Who said August was boring? We start with an update on Brexit where a deal doesn’t seem so likely and continue with escalating trade wars and what it means for financial markets. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. Brexit blues: There is growing talk of a no deal Brexit. Falling off a cliff could hurt the economy. We argue about what response the Bank of England could provide to such a scenario, the other scenarios and the potential movements for the British Pound. Trade wars: New tariffs are introduced but the US economy is doing great so stock markets are also doing great. What does it mean moving forward? Can this continue forever? We discuss the current state of affairs, look at China’s reactions, discuss the Fed, and basically everything you need to know about trade and the markets. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Market-Movers-August-12th-2018.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
48 minutes | 3 years ago
MM #181 – Festive Fed, Dovish Draghi, and a global trade war
Markets are on the move and we tackle the main topics head on the Fed’s hawkish hike, the pessimism from the ECB, and the trade wars which may not be priced in. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. Happy Fed: Powell and co. not only hiked but signaled more hikes and announced press conferences. Their forecasts are somewhat confusing though, and perhaps their optimism is not justified. We discuss all the aspects of the decision, the US economy, and the implications for markets. Sad ECB: On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Central Bank took baby steps to exit their stimulus but wrapped it up with much caution that the euro tumbled down quite sharply. We dive into the issues of the old continent and Draghi’s press conference. Trade wars: More tariffs, counter tariffs, worsening relations, and uncertainty that is already taking its toll. Yet markets are still in the “buy the dip” mentality. Do they think that Trump will not go over the cliff? What do they know? We analyze everything that is going on with trade on three fronts. Maybe only a stock market crash can turn Trump back. Preview: Trade remains left, right and center, but quite a few events are spread out in the last two weeks of Q2, including further Brexit action, the EU Summit, and final GDP figures for the US. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Market-Movers-June-19-2018.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
25 minutes | 3 years ago
MM #180 – Truce in trade and dollar domination
We start with an update on the trade war between the US and China, continue to the strength of the US Dollar and preview the next two weeks. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge support on Patreon. China-US trade: Don’t call it peace, it’s only a truce. The two largest economies decided to put off a trade war. What does it mean for broader markets? We analyze the news and try to understand: is the beginning of an improvement or just a temporary truce? US Dollar Domination: The greenback is on the rise, gaining ground across the board. What is behind the move? We dive into the root of the change: from growth, through fiscal to monetary policy and try to understand what’s next. Preview: The FOMC meeting minutes, a barrage of Fed speakers, key data in the UK, GDP updates and many other events await traders in the second part of May. Listen to the podcast here: http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Market-Movers-May-21-2018.mp3 Download it directly here Trade safely!
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