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60 minutes | Jun 24, 2021
Recovery of Retail
Rachel Elias Wein (Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Wein Plus) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the retail sectors returning as states continue to reopen and vaccine rates climb. Wein traces the pandemic’s impact on retail, including growth in grocery delivery, pet stores, and ecommerce as well as areas that struggled like malls and mid-sized brands. As for the future of retail, Wein notes that an overall decrease in restaurant sales towards lower-cost grocery foods puts more cash in the average consumer's pocket, which may open an opportunity for post-pandemic spending in retail, hospitality, and travel. Green and Wein discuss how work-from-home will impact retail, particularly weekday spending habits in urban and office hubs as an estimated 20% of the average work week (one day per week) may take place from home. Additionally, they also cover how an aging population’s spending habits may favor geographic regions, the feasibility of transitioning customer-based retail locations to more industrial-style fulfillment centers, and how the ubiquity of malls will continue to decline. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
57 minutes | May 19, 2021
Casden Spring 2021 Multifamily Forecast Report
Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) delivers new data from the Casden Spring 2021 Multifamily Forecast Report. Despite outmigration, California housing prices are still climbing, indicating that the state remains a desirable destination for many. However, California's lack of multifamily housing production remains concerning as sunbelt states with more robust construction pipelines like Texas, Arizona, and Nevada continue to siphon off California residents. Green also asserts that Southern California submarkets will largely be influenced not by whether workers return to the office, but by how often. Panelists Paul M. Keller (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mack Urban) and Tony M. Salazar (President, West Coast Division, McCormack Baron Salazar, Inc.) echo the data with anecdotal evidence from inside the industry. Salazar points out that affordable housing subsidies are offered as a flat rate across the US, and as a result those funds continue to go further in markets where housing production is less expensive. Keller remains skeptical about how the state may change and expects more of the same challenges in the future.
56 minutes | May 19, 2021
Living With COVID
Neha Nanda, MD (Medical Director of Infection Prevention and Antimicrobial Stewardship, Keck Medicine of USC) is joined by Scott B. Laurie (President and Chief Executive Officer, The Olson Company) and Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the ongoing recovery efforts from COVID-19, how organizations might manage returning to the office, and when everyday life has a chance of achieving a new normal. Nanda also reviews rules of thumb for mask-wearing as well as what vaccine hesitancy may mean for California's herd immunity. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
61 minutes | May 11, 2021
The Biggest and Smallest Barriers to California Housing Development
The State of California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) estimated that 70,000-110,000 new housing units are needed per year to keep housing prices from rising faster than the national average. What are the most important barriers to new housing construction and what can be done about them? Scholars Evgeny Burinskiy (Ph.D. in Urban Planning and Development, USC Price), Lois Takahashi (Houston Flournoy Professor of State Government and Director, USC Price in Sacramento), and Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) gather with industry experts Bert Selva (President and Chief Executive Officer, Shea Homes) and Dan Dunmoyer (President and Chief Executive Officer, California Building Industry Association) to discuss results from a new survey of California homebuilders, planning commissioners, and housing advocates. The survey, supported by a grant from the California Homebuilding Foundation, highlights the differences in perceptions stakeholders have about the development review process. Overall, each stakeholder group universally sees both traffic congestion and affordable housing as a crucial hurdle to overcome as California grows. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
60 minutes | May 5, 2021
A Sea Change in Economic Policy
Claudia Sahm (Senior Fellow, Jain Family Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to outline the changes in economic policy as the Federal Reserve and Congress have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sahm, who was inside the Federal Reserve during the Great Recession and recovery, has since devised the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator to help policymakers and economists determine the start of a recession based on unemployment rates. Sahm points out that economic policy has new goals, new tools are being considered, and change will come with growing pains. As for new goals, Sahm sees interest in concepts like full employment, reducing inequality, and acknowledging racism as harbingers of a new school of thought, and one that is less skittish about inflation as the Fed works to build momentum in economic downturns. The new tools and approaches like the child benefit cash transfers in the latest stimulus package display a shift towards providing direct aid, rather than commonly used tax incentives or other targeted programs. Sahm also acknowledges that change means pain while data catches up to policy for the simple reason that some benefits or programs have never before been attempted in the US. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
28 minutes | Apr 1, 2021
The Case for Medicare to Cover Home Safety Renovations
Originally recorded for “The Bigger Picture” podcast by the USC Bedrosian Center with host Oliva Olson. Falling is the number one cause of injury and the seventh leading cause of death in adults ages 65 and older. In the newly published “Breaking Down Silos to Improve the Health of Older Adults,” Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center), Patricia Harris (MD and Geriatric Medicine Specialist, UCLA Health), and Anthony Orlando (Assistant Professor in the Finance, Real Estate, and Law Department, California State Polytechnic University and USC Bedrosian Center Faculty Affiliate) make the case for Medicare coverage of home safety renovations to minimize injurious falls. Olivia Olson speaks with the authors about their recent paper and the changes they hope to see in Medicare coverage. The Bigger Picture: https://bedrosian.usc.edu/category/bigpicture/ Lusk Perspectives: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
61 minutes | Mar 25, 2021
Rebuilding Housing Post Disaster
Lois Takahashi (Houston Flournoy Professor of State Government and Director, USC Price in Sacramento) moderates a panel of public and private stakeholders on the roadblocks and success stories of rebuilding housing after fire in California, including Dave Sanson (CEO, DeNova Homes), Geoffrey Ross (Deputy Director, Financial Assistance -- Federal Programs, California Department of Housing and Community Development) and Dan Dunmoyer (President and CEO, California Building Industry Association). As California currently has a housing crisis due in part to the difficulties of constructing new and large-scale housing in the state, the panel concludes that rebuilding communities impacted by natural disaster remains a challenging process. Sanson points out that though most communities lack the resources to act quickly in rebuilding that requires federal support, a dissonance of unity via local control and NIMBYism also can hamper rebuilding efforts. Ross acknowledges that the federal system is not yet attuned to the unique needs of responding to fire, having focused for some time on flood, tornado, or hurricane relief. Though the question “should we rebuild” in fire-affected areas deserves examining, Dunmoyer identifies that homebuilding is not immune to natural disaster anywhere in California or even the US and emphasizes safe and smart building as a responsible solution. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
33 minutes | Mar 8, 2021
The Future of Cities, Remote Work, and Return to the Office
Though the end of the pandemic may seem in sight, many questions remain regarding which trends of the past year are permanent. Edward Glaeser (Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University) and Richard Florida (Professor, School of Cities and Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto and Co-Founder and Senior Editor, Bloomberg CityLab) join Richard Peiser (Michael D. Spear Professor of Real Estate Development, Harvard University) and Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to confer on the potential outcomes for land use in the US. While both Glaeser and Florida agree that cities at large will return to full strength and influence, they also see individual cities as vulnerable. Regarding office work, Glaeser cites studies that indicate maintaining office culture via remote channels performs well, but growing a company remotely brings significant challenges for both management and employee advancement. Florida sees shifts towards remote and remote-flexible work as a potential revolution in the real estate industry, particularly as amenity-rich smaller cities have an opportunity to build hubs using compact urban models similar to the 15-minute city. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives Record date: 2/25/21
52 minutes | Mar 1, 2021
What Real Estate Can Learn from The Tech Industry
Brad Hargreaves (Founder and CEO, Common) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss how COVID-19 has impacted product typologies of co-living and the role tech plays in managing multifamily properties. As it varies across the industry, Hargreaves lays out Common’s definition of co-living that distinguishes itself from visions of student housing or roommate matching and management. While co-living makes up a portion of Common’s management portfolio, Hargreaves sees the lowest hanging fruit for most property managers as basic tech upgrades to increase efficiency and centralize efforts like sales, marketing, and leasing to better and more quickly serve tenants. Green fields questions on which cities seem to be making big wins from the increased adoption of remote work, how renters making choices virtually will persist after the pandemic subsides, and what co-living financing really looks like to lenders and borrowers. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
40 minutes | Feb 9, 2021
Fireside Chat with Lusk Chair and Vice Chair
William A. Witte (CEO, Related California and Chair, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) and Nadine Watt (CEO, Watt Companies and Vice Chair, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate), to discuss their perspective on the broad trends and challenges facing real estate and urban economics in 2021. The leadership offers viewpoints on California outmigration, how rents are changing in unexpected ways as consumers respond to COVID, and the potential growth (and pitfalls) that remain for Southern California infrastructure. The Lusk Chair and Vice Chair insist that capital availability continues, meanwhile the industry as a whole continues to maintain a “wait and see” strategy to accurately assess how COVID and consumer trends have impacted product types and financial feasibility in the long term. More talks and resources: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
51 minutes | Dec 18, 2020
Addressing Land Loss for Underserved Americans
Dana Goldman (Interim Dean, Price School of Public Policy and Director, USC Schaeffer Center) hosts Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) and Thomas Mitchell (Macarthur Fellow and Co-Director, Program in Real Estate and Community Development Law, Texas A&M) in a conversation about Mitchell’s work on attempting to rectify the many ways that Black and other disadvantaged American families are deprived of their real estate wealth. Upon the passing of a land-owning family member without a designated will, a great many properties of Black Americans passed property to multiple interest-owning heirs. Often called an “heirs property” or “tenancy in common”, this arrangement makes the estate easy to enter into a forced sale where the property sells for a fraction of its value. Affecting both rural and urban disadvantaged populations, Mitchell’s work has spearheaded both legal and legislative reforms in several states to help alleviate forced sales of a family’s vital source of generational wealth.
41 minutes | Dec 16, 2020
Long Run Effects of Quantitative Easing
Rodney Ramcharan (Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Marshall School of Business) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to look back at 2009 and the quantitative easing used to inject money into the US economy during the financial crisis. Ramcharan shows that the effects of government intervention in the economy can last a long time, up to six years, with refinance activity providing a key indicator for a business’s future health. Green and Ramcharan discuss how the data gathered since 2009 could inform monetary policy as the effects of the pandemic continue, as well as the varying viewpoints economists have had over the years about the debt ceiling. More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
46 minutes | Dec 7, 2020
Valuation - How Do You Value In Times Like This?
An excerpt panel from the Casden 2020 State of the Market conference. John W. Loper (Associate Professor, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) hosts a discussion with industry practitioners George Koiso, MAI (Director, Los Angeles Multifamily Practice Leader, CBRE Valuation & Advisory Services), Jaime Lee (Chief Executive Officer, Jamison Realty, Inc.), and John Pawlowski (Senior Analyst, Residential, Greenstreet Advisors) on how valuation works today as COVID continues to influence the market in unexpected ways. The panel dives into their perspectives and observations on current trends in Net Operating Income, occupancy, and collections as well as how underwriting and financing is changing with Federal stimulus dollars available.
38 minutes | Nov 18, 2020
Distressed Debt and the K-Shaped Recovery
Sean Armstrong (Managing Principal, Westport Capital LLC) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss highlights from his career, his views on acquiring distressed debt, and how COVID could impact the industry. Though the K-shaped recovery will likely be a general trend going forward, Armstrong sees the recovery playing out in very focused markets with multiple intersecting factors including region, product type, COVID progress, and consumer behavior. Green asks questions about Armstrong’s process on looking for opportunities, where he has made mistakes in the past, and what options remain for regional malls in decline.
60 minutes | Nov 13, 2020
COVID-19 and Renter Distress
Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) is joined by Michael Lens (Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Public Policy, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs), Michael Manville (Associate Professor of Urban Planning, UCLA Luskin), and Paavo Monkkonen (Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Public Policy, UCLA Luskin) to discuss their joint study on renter distress during the COVID-19 crisis. Among its many findings, the study illustrates that though many households are making rent payments, tenants may be using other means of credit or cutting basic needs spending to do so.
48 minutes | Oct 26, 2020
Demystifying Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities
Roy March (CEO, Eastdil Secured) discusses the ins and outs of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate). Starting with the history of how CMBS was born out of the Savings and Loan Crisis in the late 1980s and how it gained ground after the 2008 crisis by providing much-needed liquidity, the conversation covers a wide range of the market. March offers insights and observations on how a global aging population focused on long-term saving impacts interest rates, how valuation and refinancing is changing since COVID-19, and what changes have been made in governance to provide more flexibility on loan terms. March also takes a moment to address the shortcomings of the homelessness and housing crisis, particularly in Southern California.
32 minutes | Oct 22, 2020
Election Talks: Breaking Down CA Prop 2
Radio host and fourth-generation Angeleno Larry Mantle and policy experts Gary Painter and Richard Green provide an overview of CA Proposition 21 followed by a discussion on their opposing views of supporting or opposing the initiative for local rent control. If approved, it allows local governments to establish rent control on residential properties that have been occupied for over 15 years. Additionally, it allows landlords who own no more than two homes to exempt themselves from such policies. Relevant to the discussion is the 1995 Costa–Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which Prop 21 would repeal some of the provisions in the act.
31 minutes | Oct 16, 2020
Prop 15 Discussion with KPCC Host Larry Mantle
Larry Mantle (Host, AirTalk, KPCC) hosts a discussion regarding California Proposition 15. If passed on November 3rd, this will generate an estimated $6.5 billion to $11.5 billion annually for local governments and K-14 public education by creating a "split roll" property tax system that increases taxes on large commercial properties by taxing them at market value, without changing the assessed valuation process for other properties. Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center) briefly introduces the talk while Manuel Pastor (Director, USC Dornsife Equity Research Institute) and Rex Hime (President and CEO, California Business Properties Association) discuss what the ramifications of this proposition could be for California business, local municipalities, and education.
50 minutes | Oct 13, 2020
The COVID Economy: Where Are We Now?
Diane Swonk (Chief Economist, Grant Thornton) discusses where we’ve been and possibly where we’re going as the economy braces for more impacts from COVID-19 with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center). Tracing the line back from January 2020 to the Fall, she overlays her concerns about COVID’s long term impacts on Millennials, Gen Z, Women in the workforce, and the ever-widening gaps in racial disparities. Green offers supporting evidence as well as questions regarding how the supply chain might change. Swonk insists throughout that the course of the virus is the course of the economy regardless of government intervention. For more talks and insights, visit https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives
39 minutes | Sep 29, 2020
Analyzing Mortgage Market Risks
Laurie Goodman (Co-Director, Housing and Finance Policy, Urban Institute) sits down with Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center) to discuss all things mortgage market including her success and key takeaways from analyzing asset classes in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, how she and her team created the housing credit availability index, the impact of both Dodd-Frank legislation and COVID-19 on the mortgage market. Additionally, Goodman offers data-based observations on credit evaluation flaws and how that widens the black-white homeownership gap.
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