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In this episode, Pete and Steve discuss each of Warren Buffett's criteria of what constitutes a "simple" business. (1) Large purchases and large companies, (2) Demonstrated consistent earning power, (3) Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt, (4) Management in place (we can’t supply it), (5) Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it), (6) An offering price. We then summarise whether all of these have the same importance and which ones may be more important. Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

In this episode, Pete and Steve discuss Buffett's quote "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". They discuss Buffett's musing about the value of the stock market overall; his understanding and the way he takes advantage of other investors emotions and how he uses logic as a central part of his steadfast conviction that price follows value; How CAPE can assist in considering when to enter and exit markets; and finally Buffett's favourite macro valuation metric and what you need to do to be able to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when they are fearful. Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

"Price is what you pay, and value is what you get". So says the master Warren Buffett. In this episode Pete and Steve discuss what exactly Buffett thinks about price and value and what do they really mean for investors. We also discuss value in both the micro and macro sense and also a discussion on how Buffett thinks about value. And of course, we chat about our old favourite the CAPE ratio and how it ties to the idea of value. Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

In this podcast series on Warren Buffett, Pete and Steve dissect some of Buffett's best known quotes to determine what Buffett means and how you can use Buffett's philosophy to improve your investment prowess. In this opening episode, Pete and Steve discuss the meaning behind Buffett's best known quote "Rule No.1 - Don't Lose Money and Rule No. 2 is Don't Forget Rule No. 1". Pete and Steve also get the chance to throw in a few more Buffettisms and what the quote has to do with risk and your stock or property portfolio. They also discuss how Buffett thinks about risk, patience and of course CAPE and why the earnings yield is so important for investment success. And end this episode with some advice when thinking about investing. Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

On our last episode in this mini-series on Economics, we look towards the future and talk through the big questions. Since we like to reference Warren Buffett quite often on this show, we thought we should honour the man with our next mini-series. Stay tuned for that next week! Thanks for listening! Download a free copy of our latest book, Total Money Management – How to escape the rat race and unlock your financial independence. www.gonextlevelwealth.com.au/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

It's widely assumed that there is a close connection between the stock market and the broader economy. It sort of makes sense, right? After all, both deal with money! In this episode, Pete and Steve discuss whether there actually is a correlation between economic growth and stock market returns, and they question whether economic growth actually does assist investors in delivering superior investment returns. Listen to this week's episode and understand why the CAPE and earnings yield remain the critical variables in delivering stock market returns, and the logic of why economic growth is not highly informative to your portfolio returns. Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

Is MMT good for the stock market? Why is it so controversial? In this episode Steve and Pete discuss the various aspects of MMT including whether it is good for markets and the impacts of the theory on your stock market portfolio. Books - Stephanie Kelton, The Deficit Myth; L. Randell, Wray Modern Monetary Theory. Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

Economics has a long history but one that is littered with failures to predict large influential events that impact the global economy. The Queen of England famously asked why economists could not have seen the Global Financial Crisis before it happened. Since the GFC, economics and alternative theories have been gaining wider publicity as a result of the consistent failures of the neo-classical theory to avert economic problems such as poverty, recessions and growing inequality. In this episode, Pete and Steve discuss some of the latest developments in economic theory which focus on the behavioural aspects of people. And so we think psychology, behaviour and personality all play a distinct role in our economic decisions and this also influences how we see markets. Reference Books 1. Robert Shiller - Narrative Economics 2. Rory Sutherland – Alchemy 3. Kahneman – Thinking Slow, Thinking Fast 4. Ergodicity Economics – Ole Peters Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

In this opening episode of Series 5, Steve and Pete discuss the history of economics and how the theory has evolved over time. This is the first in the series which seeks to gain a greater understanding how economics interacts and influenced the stock market. Reference books: 1. John Kenneth Galbraith – Any of his books are great but 2 stand out – The History of Economics and The Great Crash 2. Robert Heilbroner – The Worldly Philosophers 3. Binyamin Appelbaum – The Economists’ Hour 4. Money and Government – Skidelsky 5. Quantum Economics – David Orrell Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

Participating in any market bubble can be lots of fun. Making money and watching your portfolio grow quickly is music to every investors ears. But what about when you recognise the market is getting or is in a bubble. What should you do? Should you join in? Sell out and wait in cash? Find alternative stocks? Ignore the bubble and forge on? In this episode, Pete and Steve discuss how you should invest when markets are looking bubbly and what options are available to investors to profit and not get caught up and suffer investment losses. All these questions are important for you to make successful investment decisions over the long term. Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

Market bubbles are generally thought of as overall negative events because when they burst they leave behind a lot of sad investors who are nursing heavy losses. Once the bubble bursts, investor get a change to survey the damage. But most clouds have a silver lining if you look hard enough. In this episode. Pete and Steve discuss what happens after the bubble bursts and whether there is any good to come from them. And what lessons can investors, both new and old learn from market bubbles. Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

In today's episode we discussed some of the characteristics of a bubble, and how they can be identified. We discussed several warning signs, including the following: -Valuation metrics become redundant -No price too high! -Technical analysis starts at high valuations -Investor profile: a surfeit of new young men coming into the market -A sharp rise in the use of leverage We also discussed why it's difficult to pick the top. Books/articles referenced David Einhorn Buchanan Capital cycle theory Buffett at Sun Valley article Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

The excessive bubbles of history took a great economic situation and extrapolated it into the future, based on an assumption that today’s perfect conditions will continue. We find there are bubbles in all asset classes – property, stocks, art, basically any area where people trade. Jeremy Grantham recently said - “We are in a bubble,” “but it is unlike any other.” Everything is overpriced, he said, but there is no way to say when they will peak. To call that peak, it is useful to look for signs of “crazy” behaviour. In this episode, we ask what is a bubble? Is there any agreement on what constitutes a bubble? Are there any similar characteristics? We also discuss bubbles across countries, industry sectors and of course individual companies. Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty twitter.com/SGM63

In this week’s episode we discuss: -The ‘risk hierarchy’ of investing and why individual companies can carry the greatest risk -Why systematic structural advantages can lead to investment success -Porter’s 5 forces versus Greenwald: which model is better -Monopolies and oligopolies – supply versus demand -industry specific models -other simple models for finding value Other simple models - EV/EBIT (Carlisle), 52 Week Low (Wiley), Low P/E (Dreman/Neff) Net Nets (Graham), - discuss benefits of each. Bottom 3 ETFs is a pretty simple and effective model Books mentioned: Jonathan Tepper – The Myth of Capitalism Bruce Greenwald and Judd Kahn – Competition Demystified Tobias E. Carlisle – The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

In this week’s episode we discuss: -industry cycles and why they repeat -industry CAPE ratios -why supply matters as well as demand -focussing on statistics over stories -a very simple method for investing in sector ETFs! Books mentioned: Geoffrey West – Scale Jonathan Tepper – The Myth of Capitalism James O’Shaughnessy – What Works on Wall Street Edward Chancellor – Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle Jeremy Siegel – The Future for Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumph over the Bold and the New Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

In this week’s episode we discuss: -which model is best for the stock market? Which model reflects the true reality? -what is capital growth theory? -why it’s best to think dynamically and to take an active approach -why EMH is best for financial advisors, but not for you -our 8 timeless principles and how they work as a model -are markets random? How best to cope with randomness -how to adjust your approach as the environment changes Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

In this week’s episode we discuss: -Why every investor has a favourite model for achieving superior returns -Characteristics of the different ways to invest: fundamental, technical, or quant -Why simple models outperform the complex -Correlation and complexity: why it’s so hard to weight variables to stock market returns -Investing over different timeframes -Which model is best for you and your personality types -The greatest investors and their commonalities Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

In this week’s episode we discuss systematic simplicity, and how more moving parts can mean that there are more things to go wrong. Here’s what we cover and discuss: • Why discounted cashflow calculations are difficult • What’s the best way to value a company? • How the great investors can end up with simple systems and variables • Do computers add any value for investors? • Why simple doesn’t mean thoughtless • Some simple models for investing • Calm and circumspect: how systems can reduce emotional reactions • Repeating behavioural investing • Good decades and not-so-good decades • Why are investors drawn to complexity? • Our 8 timeless principles for investing Books referred to: Ben Graham - Security Analysis Ben Carlson – A Wealth of Common Sense Ben Graham – The Intelligent Investor James Montier – Value Investing Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent: www.petewargent.com/ www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty: twitter.com/SGM63

In this week’s episode we discuss: -our earliest experiences in stocks: stock tips and speculation! -how to formulate a systematic approach -the historical composition of returns from stocks: dividends and capital growth -are dividends better than capital gains? -Australia and franking credits -US stocks and share buybacks etc -worrying less about capital gains tax -capital growth theory and the Kelly Criterion Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

In this week’s episode we discuss: -our personal journeys: Steve and Pete -the 9 different personality types and your underlying money motivations -typical spending patterns in middle age -how your spending patterns might change in retirement -our ‘3 Wells of Wealth’ model -Well 1 (living) – because expenses compound negatively -Well 2 (lifestyle) – medium-term liquid investments in stocks, bonds, and cash -Well 3 (legacy – compounding long term) -the 4Fs model: finding your route to happiness in retirement -designing your ideal day and lifestyle -our parents’ generation: the pension, annuities etc. -changing life expectancy -the kids and leaving a legacy Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’ https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63