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37 minutes | 5 months ago
Podcast #35: Mark Nelson - Energy and ESG
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mark Nelson, executive director of the Radiant Energy Fund, a non-profit organization focused on the energy market. Mark is a nuclear engineer who started his career working with the famous Michael Shellenberger, author of the book “Apocalypse Never” and a great defender of nuclear energy as a source of clean and sustainable energy. Nelson spoke about ESG investments – these are investments in line with best practices regarding environmental, social and corporate governance aspects. Mark questioned the ESG title that giants in a few sectors, especially technology, claim they hold . Mark explained in detail how energy is a topic of great relevance, but it is not given the proper credit. Mark also explained the cultural war being waged against nuclear energy and its impacts on the world and told us how to deal with differences of opinion in communication. When asked how wind and solar power would have supposedly gotten cheaper in recent years, while people who live in regions where there is a lot of availability of these types of energy sources end up paying more for electricity, Mark gave a surprising explanation. He demonstrated that the metric used by the sector is wrong and misleading (LCOE -levelized cost of energy) and gave a fantastic example to substantiate his point. Mark also spoke about the situation in France, the anti-nuclear youth movement today, its origins and how to deal with the issue. In addition, it addressed an interesting item, the reverse carbon tax. Nelson also spoke about the German situation and the major problem that nuclear energy will have to face in that country. Finally, Mark explained, from his point of view, why it is easier to develop nuclear projects and build atomic reactors in Asian countries than in Western countries.
30 minutes | 8 months ago
Podcast #34: Brandon Munro - Uranium
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a company listed on the Australian stock exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines in Namibia. Brandon, a frequent participant in the L2 Capital podcasts, returned to discuss important topics such as the restart of the Cigar Lake mine, the 20% cut in Kazatomprom's estimated production for 2022, the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium, the latest developments in the spot market, the situation in Iran at the moment and the latest news from Bannerman Resources. Marcelo had already mentioned in the last podcast recorded with Munro, in early June, that he expected the production of Cigar Lake to return this year and Brandon starts talking about the stock market's response to Cameco's announcement. The reopening procedures of the mine that had been closed due to the pandemic are due to start in September. Brandon also discusses the decision of Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium miner, to reduce the estimated production of the metal by 20% in 2022 and the importance of this attitude for the market. Munro talks about the consequences of this and the possible repercussions for the coming years. He comments on the uranium spot market, the main factors that are affecting the price at the moment and how real investors are reacting. Brandon explains that the WNA (World Nuclear Association) Symposium will be virtual this year and discusses what the implications will be for nuclear fuel buyers and sellers. Munro also talks about the Iran sanctions waivers, which end on August 27, and what the United States are doing about it. Finally, Brandon talks about the changes at Bannerman Resources and how it can affect the company and investors' view of it.
45 minutes | 10 months ago
Podcast # 33B: Fernando Ulrich e Tavi Costa – economia e finanças
No episódio de hoje, segunda parte de uma conversa que foi dividida em duas, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, e com Otávio Costa, mais conhecido como Tavi, portfolio manager da Crescat Capital. Marcelo começa falando do atual estado dos mercados e de uma possível bolha que está se formando nas bolsas pelo mundo afora, especialmente após a entrada mais expressiva do varejo. López cita o exemplo da Tesla e compara o patrimônio de Warren Buffett com o de Elon Musk, sugerindo que isso pode ser um indicador. Fernando menciona alguns exemplos de empresas que estão quebradas e viram suas ações disparar nos últimos meses, como resultado de aplicativos como Robin Hood. Tavi comenta sobre frases como “fundamentos não importam” e as críticas ao Warren Buffett. Nesse contexto, ele discute sobre a solidez dos fundamentos da economia e, mais especificamente, sobre o mercado de mineração, os setores bancários, imobiliário e de tecnologia. Fernando faz uma provocação dizendo que o mercado só está subindo por causa do Fed e dos estímulos dos bancos centrais. Marcelo fala sobre a tese de investimento em urânio e da assimetria favorável ao investidor paciente e compara com a relação risco x retorno no caso dos investimentos em tecnologia. Tavi complementa os argumentos e conclusões com alguns exemplos e mostra que a dívida das empresas está alta e continua subindo e faz um questionamento com relação ao mercado de urânio e de commodities em geral. Marcelo explica em mais detalhes o mercado de urânio, salienta aspectos ligados ao crescimento do mercado consumidor (reatores nucleares) e aos cortes de produção das mineradoras. Ele ainda destaca haver um déficit crescente entre oferta e demanda e acredita que o ajuste será feito por meio do preço do metal. Marcelo também conta sobre a Coca-Cola e o que realmente está mudando nas empresas, e contrasta o aumento do endividamento e das recompras de ações com as receitas e margens dos negócios. López pergunta sobre a visão dos convidados sobre bolsa, dólar e taxa juros. Tavi chama a atenção para o estresse no câmbio dos mercados emergentes e destaca problemas na economia chinesa que podem repercutir pelo mundo afora. Fernando discute os impactos da atual taxa de juros no Brasil e da situação fiscal no câmbio, além das consequências da volatilidade na moeda, e defende uma mudança na meta de inflação. Marcelo traz à discussão o tema bitcoin e Fernando explica o racional por trás da sua tese de investimento, que foca primeiro em reserva de valor e depois em meio de troca. Tavi também dá sua opinião sobre a moeda digital e sobre uma possível forma de diversificação.
34 minutes | 10 months ago
Podcast #33 (A): Fernando Ulrich e Tavi Costa
No episódio de hoje, primeira parte de uma conversa que foi dividida em duas, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, e com Otávio Costa, mais conhecido como Tavi, portfolio manager da Crescat Capital. Tavi começa discutindo sobre os 3 itens que ele e a Crescat estavam acompanhando desde o ano passado: a situação na China, os metais preciosos e a bolha nos mercados internacionais. Ele fala sobre sua expectativa em torno dos estímulos monetários e discorre sobre o impacto disso nos metais preciosos. Fernando completa o raciocínio com sua visão mais macro e questiona sobre a conversibilidade do dólar de Hong Kong e os impactos na economia local. Tavi fala sobre os hedges que a Crescat Capital está usando no momento e suas expectativas sobre o futuro da economia chinesa. Ulrich então traz suas expectativas com relação a tão sonhada recuperação em “V” das economias mundiais e compara com o pensamento corrente. Ele fala sobre o business cycle, indicadores antecedentes e sobre a rápida queda e retorno dos mercados internacionais. Marcelo expõe sua visão de que essa é uma crise de solvência, não de liquidez, e que a impressão de dinheiro desenfreada não vai resolver o problema. Tavi completa com sua opinião sobre a atual crise e destaca alguns setores estão sendo prejudicados mais do que outros, além de comparar o setor de tecnologia com o setor de bancos. Fernando diz que ainda tem muita coisa para acontecer em termos de “saneamento financeiro” e elabora sobre o tema, citando exemplos como o da Boeing. Além disso, ele levanta o questionamento sobre inflação e deflação. Marcelo conta sobre o respeito que tem pelo mercado de bonds e diz que ainda não está claro o caminho que o mundo vai seguir, ou seja, se haverá inflação ou deflação. Nesse confronto, ele traz bons argumentos para ambos. Do lado da inflação, há a impressão de dinheiro absurda, do lado da deflação, existe o icônico caso Japão, que vem imprimindo dinheiro há décadas, sem que a inflação incomodasse.
33 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #32: Brandon Munro - Uranium
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a company listed on the Australian stock exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines in Namibia. Brandon, who has participated in L2 Capital's Podcasts # 05, # 14 and # 18, returned to discuss the Russian Suspension Agreement (RSA), the Iran waivers and the outcome of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG). Munro starts by explaining what the Russian Suspension Agreement (RSA) is in a very clear and objective way. Then, when asked about a potential disruption in the supply of nuclear fuel to the US due to this suspension as early as 2021, Brandon explains what can be done to mitigate this situation. He also discusses the Corfu Declaration, an agreement similar to the RSA, but in Europe, and its practical effects. Through this Declaration, Russia would be unable to supply more than 20% of Europe’s enriched uranium demand. Brandon explains how global regulation and control of uranium is carried out in the context of the global nuclear fuel supply chain, as uranium can be mined in Australia, converted and enriched in Russia, produced as a fuel in Sweden and be used in an American reactor. Brandon comments on the situation in Iran, the agreement signed by President Obama, the US discontentment and subsequent withdrawal from that agreement, on the waivers granted to some companies, the recent withdrawal of three of these waivers and the consequences this could have. Munro also talks about the release of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG) report at the end of April, its main points, the consequences for the global nuclear industry and, specifically, for the USA. Finally, Brandon and Marcelo discuss Cigar Lake, the Cameco mine whose production was suspended this year, the movement in Port Hope and the difficulties that traders are facing to find uranium in the midst of this bull market.
33 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #31: Rodrigo Constantino - economia e política no Brasil
No episódio de hoje, Marcelo López conversou com Rodrigo Constantino, chairman do Instituto Liberal, autor de vários livros famosos e comentarista no programa 3 em 1 na Jovem Pan. Rodrigo começa falando sobre os efeitos econômicos do isolamento e distanciamento social causados pela pandemia do coronavírus no mundo. Em seguida, ele que já trabalhou com o atual ministro da economia Paulo Guedes, nos conta sobre o backgroundintelectual do ministro e comenta sobre os efeitos da pandemia no Brasil e da enorme oportunidade que o país tem no momento de fazer o dever de casa e se sair bem. Constantino expõe sua visão sobre a situação econômica do país e sobre a relação entre Paulo Guedes e Bolsonaro. Nesse contexto, ele avalia as possibilidades de haver um desmantelamento de parte da equipe econômica do governo, tendo em vista fatores como a situação histórica do Brasil, a política do Centrão e o corporativismo brasileiro. Em referência a um episódio recente, Rodrigo explica a situação da saída do ex-ministro Moro do governo, suas razões (ou falta delas) e implicações políticas para ele e o presidente. Constantino traz sua opinião sobre a atual situação chinesa com relação a Hong Kong e Taiwan, e como o mundo está lidando com isso. O sistema vigorante até pouco tempo era o de 1 país, 2 sistemas, e a democracia sempre foi um ponto importante em Hong Kong. Como economista, Rodrigo discute sobre a recente desvalorização da moeda brasileira, o real, e suas consequências disso para o país. Rodrigo, como libertário que é, dá sua opinião sobre o bitcoin, a principal criptomoeda do mundo. Aliás, esse foi um ponto interessante e controverso da discussão. Por fim, Constantino comenta sobre um de seus livros, intitulado “Brasileiro é otário?”, explicando por que o tão famoso jeitinho brasileiro é, na verdade, uma draga para o desenvolvimento do país.
34 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #30: Adam Rozencwajg - commodities
In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, a company specialized in natural resource investments, such as mining, energy and agriculture. Adam explains the model developed by G&R to understand the dynamic of the shale oil production in the United States and the conclusions drawn regarding the level of productivity and quality of each oil well. Rozencwajg talks about the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the impact that the clash has had on the oil market. He mentions the strengths and weaknesses that each side has in this dispute, such as, for example, the ability to deal with low prices, oil price needed to balance the budget and the influence of the currency on the costs and profitability of oil companies. Adam comments on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on world oil demand and stocks so far and his expectations going forward. In the face of low oil prices, Rozencwajg discusses the ability of U.S. shale producers to continue to pump oil after price normalization and highlights the role and importance that shale has in meeting global energy demands. Adam explains the behaviour of prices in the oil futures market, which is currently in contango, and the possibility of returning to backwardation. Rozencwajg comments on the discrepancies he has found and as well as the upcoming potential opportunities in the oil and gas companies, then finally, on what is important to take into account when analyzing the sector now. As for the gold-oil ratio, which represents the ratio between the price of gold and the price of a barrel of oil, Adam acknowledges that it is at a very high level and gives his interpretation to the number and how it can be an indicator for positioning in shares of the energy sector in relation to the shares of producers of the precious metal. Another index, the gold-silver ratio, (which is the ratio between the price of gold and that of silver), also at multi-year high levels, is discussed with Adam, who believes one has to have exposure to precious metals and the shares of companies that produce them. Finally, Rozencwajg talks about uranium, the fundamentals of the sector and his expectations for the price of the commodity.
27 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #29: Shawn Hackett - soft commodities
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a company that specializes in providing advice for farmers and hedgers about soft commodities, based on analysis and forecasts of climate cycles. Hackett Financial Advisors helps traders and producers make decisions in agricultural commodities in order to better conduct their business. Shawn initially discusses global warming and climate change, issues that have been around for some years. He argues for the non-anthropogenic factors that historically influence the planet's climate, in contrast to the view that the human factor is paramount. Hackett explains how solar cycles work, how long each cycle is, the impact that changes in the sun bring to Earth, what sunspots are, what they represent in terms of physical phenomena and how solar winds affect our planet. Shawn comments on the importance of understanding and monitoring solar cycles for agricultural commodities and how reliable these cycles are. From an historical perspective, he links these cycles to geopolitical and economic events and also to food production abundance and scarcity. Hackett explains that the sun rotates around the centre of mass of the solar system and not around itself, as one might think. He then correlates this characteristic with the influence that solar activity has on the planet Earth under given circumstances. According to him, other variables are also important to understand the climate and the changes to which it is subject. He talks about the temperature of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and their own cycles and how these cycles, associated with solar cycles, impact the climate in the world. Shawn also talks about the El Niño and La Niña phenomena and their relevance to the climate. Shawn talks about the moment we are in in relation to solar cycles and ocean temperatures, and the effects that they will have on planet Earth. Hackett also talks about the existing technologies to deal with adversities in agricultural production and comments on which commodities producers and traders should seek exposure to at this time.
30 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #28: Paul Ma – CGN Mining
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Paul Ma, director of CGN Mining, a company that is part of the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), the world's third largest nuclear power corporation, and a member of the board of directors of Fission Uranium. Paul has more than 10 years of experience in the uranium industry, including exploration, development, mining and investment activities. He is responsible for CGN Mining's overseas operations, including development, mergers and acquisitions. When asked if the uranium market is an opportunity, Paul brought an elaborate explanation, putting into place the most relevant events for the sector over the past 20 years from an historical perspective. He highlighted the characteristics of the last bull market along with several important factors and how they have changed, such as the role of low-cost producers, the Fukushima incident, expectations, the installed capacity of nuclear reactors worldwide and the signing of long-term contracts. Ma highlighted the existence of a deficit between world demand and primary uranium production and discussed the availability of the commodity in the spot market, the possibility of taking advantage of prices to increase inventories and the importance of guaranteeing a sustainable and reliable supply throughout several decades of a reactor's useful life. Paul spoke about jurisdictions that he considers interesting for carrying out asset acquisitions in the uranium mining sector, provided some details about two projects recently acquired in one of these locations and mentioned the characteristics he seeks in an M&A operation. Paul commented on his perspective regarding the expansion of nuclear energy production in the Asian giant, highlighting the technologies used, the importance of reactor standardisation and economies of scale in the process. Ma also talked about the level of uranium stock in the country, the level of prices observed today and ended by explaining the main risks he sees for the sector.
24 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #27: Anas Alhajji – Oil markets
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Anas Alhajji, a partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, as well as an internationally recognised author, speaker, researcher and specialist in the energy markets. Anas begins by discussing how the issue of the types and quality of oil is important and how that impacts the world trade in this commodity. In this context, he talks about the characteristics of shale oil produced in the USA, the structure and capacity of North American refineries, the country's exports and imports of oil, the future demand for oil products and the impact of natural gas on the market. Alhajji talks about the sharp drop in the price of oil this year and how the crisis that the sector is going through is unprecedented and the inconveniences and uncertainties that this creates for OPEC. He talks about his expectations regarding the impact of the coronavirus on oil demand and price. Anas highlights in his analysis the influence that the American presidential election has on oil producing countries and how this is a decisive factor for the price of the commodity in 2020. Alhajji points out that the years 2021 to 2023 should be very interesting for the sector and predicts a major global energy crisis, to which he attributes different factors, such as, the underestimation of future demand for oil products and the hype of electric vehicles. Anas also states his point of view on the dynamics involving shale oil from the United States and Canadian tar sands. When it comes to investment, Alhajji talks about how he prefers to position himself and where he sees more value along the sector's production chain. He also lists the main risks he sees for the sector and what can be done about the crisis he foresees. Alhajji discusses his point of view on the expectations of oil demand made by many analysts and the exaggerations that these analysts make when estimating the impacts of certain changes.
34 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #26: Fernando Ulrich - Escola austríaca
No episódio de hoje, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, palestrante, autor do livro “Bitcoin: a moeda na era digital” e conselheiro do Instituto Mises Brasil. Fernando conta sobre sua trajetória profissional, como vivenciou a grande crise financeira de 2008 e como teve seu primeiro contato com a Escola Austríaca a partir de então, mencionando figuras que o atraíram para o assunto, como Ron Paul e Peter Schiff. Ulrich, que cursou mestrado em economia da Escola Austríaca em Madrid, explica como surgiu e se desenvolveu essa escola de pensamento econômico por meio de expoentes como Carl Menger, Eugen von böhm-bawerk, Ludwig von Mises e Friedrich Hayek. Ele traça um paralelo com outras escolas de pensamento e esclarece por que os austríacos ficam excluídos do mainstream e do currículo das universidades, com menção à forma como enxergam a economia, o efeito das políticas públicas e a intervenção governamental. Fernando, que é um entusiasta das criptomoedas, especialmente do Bitcoin, explica por que ele acredita no futuro das moedas digitais e aborda críticas relacionadas a elas, como volatilidade e funcionalidade como meio de troca e reserva de valor. Quando o assunto é bolsa brasileira, Ulrich apresenta o case para o investimento em ativos de renda variável do Brasil, com considerações sobre as políticas públicas atualmente em curso, macroeconomia, composição do principal índice acionário local, fluxo de capital, participação de estrangeiros e responde se ainda vala a pena investir por aqui. Sobre o dólar, Fernando dá uma explicação para o porquê de a divisa norte-americana estar no atual patamar frente ao real e fala quais as perspectivas para a moeda. Nesse contexto, ele ainda argumenta sobre a importância de se investir no exterior. Ulrich comenta sobre os mercados globais e como a atuação dos bancos centrais e os movimentos recentes do Fed impactam os preços dos ativos mundiais. Ele discorre sobre existência de uma bolha de tudo (the everything bubble) e a repercussão que as políticas monetárias têm na sociedade geral e na política, além de tratar sobre como o Brasil reagiria na eventualidade de um crash.
18 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #25: Kiyan Zandiyeh - Uzbekistan
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Kiyan Zandiyeh, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Sturgeon Capital, a London-based investment management company founded 15 years ago and focused on frontier markets in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Kiyan explains that the company, although based in England, has teams scattered in loco in the countries in which they invest in. This enables them to follow the local perspective and to manage, in an optimized way, the investments they make in these markets. The main opportunity highlighted by Zandiyeh and the central theme of this episode is Uzbekistan, a country that, according to him, has essentially attractive characteristics, such as large population, favorable demography, economic diversity, large reserves of natural resources and solid foundations in terms of public finances. Sturgeon, who has invested in Uzbekistan for 8 years, has followed the profound transformation that the country has undergone in the past 2 and a half years, since the president died and the dictatorship began to dissolve. Kiyan tells us how the new president, until recently Prime Minister, is leading an agenda of deep reforms and restructurings that are promoting the opening of the economy, which was remarkably closed, and the country's de-bureaucratization. He gives examples of changes in the productive sectors and the foreign exchange market that have had a profound impact on the economy. Zandiyeh also talks about the stability of the new government and about the country's growth drivers and compares it with neighbours and peers. It specifically addresses the banking sector and the opportunities that exist there. Kiyan comments on the country's capital market, liquidity, fixed income securities, private equity and the way chosen by Sturgeon to capture the identified investment opportunities. Finally, Zandiyeh gives his point of view on how the Uzbek economy would react in the event of a crash in global markets and what the main risks of investing in the country could be.
39 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #24: Mark Gordon - Oil Fund
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mark Gordon, CIO of the Ascent Oil Fund. Before taking his current position, Mark worked for companies such as Goldman Sachs, Soros Fund Management and Janus Henderson, where he focused on investments linked to the energy sector. Mark explains that the Ascent Oil Fund was formed under the view that there will be a migration in the oil market’s perception from abundance to scarcity, which will cause shares of companies in the sector to rise substantially. In the context of recent tensions involving the US and Iran, Gordon explains how conflicts in the Middle East may or may not impact oil prices, depending on the factors involved. From a historical perspective, Mark discusses the role that perception and sentiment, regarding oil scarcity or abundance, plays on prices and market performance. He also lists the reasons why he believes we are in a transition period in regards to this sentiment. Gordon still contrasts the inventory and sentiment factors from the point of view of their influence on the price of the commodity and its related assets. Mark talks about shale companies, highlighting the operational and financial aspects compared to conventional oil companies, their advantages and also points criticised by analysts. After that he puts forward his expectations for the industry. On the recent performance of oil and gas stocks, Gordon provides insights into the possible reasons for the poor performance of securities, especially the E&P ones, even amid higher oil prices. Mark brings a totally unexpected perspective on the impact that electric vehicles have on the oil sector and the consequences he sees on the development of the EV industry. Finally, Gordon talks about how he is investing to capture what he believes to be a turnaround in the oil and gas industry, highlighting the types of companies he is fond of in the current scenario and the ones he believes should benefit from the change in sentiment, from abundance to scarcity.
25 minutes | a year ago
Podcast #23: Harris Kupperman - Opportunities
In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Harris Kupperman, mostly known as Kuppy. Harris is the founder of Pretorium Capital and is famous for being a fund manager with unconventional investment ideas, some of which he writes in the blog “Adventures in Capitalism” (https://adventuresincapitalism.com/). He is always looking for asymmetrical investment opportunities in sectors that are disregarded or even scorned by most investors, which generally end up being the ones with huge potential for appreciation. Initially, Kuppy discusses his views of the current market and system situation, the possibility of a crash, the factors involved, inflation, central bank performance and comments on what he calls Ponzi stocks. In this context, Kupperman discusses private equity, the preference of institutional investors for businesses involving privately held companies to the detriment of publicly traded ones, players' perception of volatility and the risks involved in this type of market. Kuppy talks about being short on the market under current circumstances and how he prefers to be long on some assets as a way to position himself for a market turnaround. From this perspective, he presents the investment thesis of the second largest position in his portfolio, with considerations on micro and macroeconomic aspects, which show his thinking when seeking investments. Harris also compares the latest financial crisis of 2007-08 against the current scenario, with considerations and analysis of interest rates, defaults, the real estate and mortgage markets. Kuppy talks about commodities and explains why he believes they are the biggest investment opportunity at the moment. On this occasion, he highlights uranium and its peculiarities. Kupperman, who participated in the last uranium bull market, describes the factors that influenced the last cycle of appreciation of the commodity, and draws a comparison with the current situation in the sector. Harris explains the investment thesis involving shipping companies, which today is the largest position in his portfolio. He highlights the cyclical behavior of the industry and the factors that may be critical to a huge appreciation of companies in this industry.
39 minutes | 2 years ago
Podcast #22: Mike Alkin - Uranium
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mike Alkin, co-founder of Sachem Cove Partners and manager of an American uranium-focused hedge fund. Mike has been following this market for over 4 years as an investor and was a speaker at the International Uranium Fuel Seminar hosted by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) in Nashville, USA, in the last week of October. Alkin, who also attended the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in London, commented on the biennial report released by the organizers and on the differences between the two events, highlighting the significant attendance of uranium buyers at the NEI-hosted seminar in the USA. Mike spoke about his presentation at the conference, which focused on the uranium price discovery, i.e., the process of pricing the U3O8 market from a macro and historical perspective. He drew attention to the fact that this industry is scarcely covered by sell-side analysts, and that the consensus adopted by the uranium buyers lacks important and easily refuted fallacious aspects. In addition to highlighting factors that are hindering the industry, such as the Section 232 petition and the Trump administration's creation of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group, Mike talked about the functioning of the spot market, its peculiarities and the movements it has observed in terms of player participation and trading volumes in contrast to other times and circumstances. Finally, Alkin discussed a major issue for investors in the industry, which is the inactivity of buyers in the face of low and unsustainable prices in an attempt to anticipate a price hike and secure low-priced material. Mike explains how the activities of buyers' professionals are structured, the incentives they have and the way they have acted historically.
28 minutes | 2 years ago
Podcast #21: Tavi Costa - Macro Research
In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Otávio Costa, better known in the financial markets as Tavi Costa. Tavi is a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and he is responsible for macro research. Tavi begins by talking about his trajectory in the financial markets and tells us more about Crescat Capital, an American company that manages hedge funds. He has been working for this company for the past 6 years. Then Tavi talks about the main topics he's looking at right now and gives us an overview of those topics. Tavi then discusses each of the themes in more detail, exploring historical data and using Crescat's proprietary models. He has a very interesting insight into the US position in the current cycle, and presents data to justify his opinion. When it comes to precious metals, Tavi discusses the current scenario and outlook for the sector. Also, Tavi talks about the relationship between the US Dollar and gold, with a very different point of view from the market. Tavi also talks about China, likely future developments in that country, and what Crescat Capital is doing now. Finally, Tavi reviews his investment thesis and says what can make him change his mind about his investment positions.
23 minutes | 2 years ago
Podcast #20: Chat with Bram Vanderelst – Uranium Trader
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Bram Vanderelst, head of the uranium trading desk at Curzon Resources. Bram, who attended the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in early September, agreed to come to the L2 Capital podcast and share with us his market insights and his experience in this profession, which is so little known. Bram Vanderelst, who is a chemical engineer, tells us about his experience and professional career and explains that at Curzon they have a dedicated desk for buying and selling uranium daily in the spot and long term markets. He, who has accumulated more than 6 years in the profession, talks about the role that a uranium trading desk has for the nuclear fuel market and how it provides liquidity for the industry, even though there are large participants from both sides, i.e., utilities and miners. Bram talks about the daily life of a trader's profession in a niche commodity such as uranium, the kind of information that has to be researched, contacts that need to be made, and the analysis that needs to be done. Bram Vanderelst discusses his view of the market with an analysis that begins with the events of Fukushima, the reverberations that the incident caused on the market, on uranium stocks and how the situation has evolved since then. He also comments on the commodity supply deficit and the outlook for supply / demand balance, with comments on the sources actually available. Bram Vanderelst also discusses the issue of inventories’ tracking, the availability of data and figures related to them compared to other commodities such as oil, for example. Vanderelst analyzes the effects that Cameco's announced purchase in the spot market of 10m lbs of U3O8 by year-end should have on prices, with considerations of material availability at different price levels and locations. On the possibility of price variation between locations, Bram explains the arbitrage practices and the reasons that lead to divergences within the context of the nuclear fuel cycle. Vanderelst makes an assessment of the factors that led to a sharp rise in the conversion prices of U3O8 to UF6 and the possibility that something similar could occur with yellow cake, going through current price levels, mining incentives and the specificities of the uranium market. Finally, Bram draws attention to what he considers to be the risks that investors, utilities and miners could be ignoring or not paying due attention to. To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website! The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise. Follow us on social media: Twitter Linkedin Youtube
28 minutes | 2 years ago
Podcast #19: Chat with Bill Fleckenstein
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Bill Fleckenstein, an investment manager with over 30 years of experience in the financial market. Bill shares his comments, market insights and investment ideas on the website fleckensteincapital.com.br. Bill begins by discussing the magnitude of the attack on Saudi Arabia may have on markets depending on the actions taken in response to the incident and ponders about risk premiums and how agents have reacted to geopolitical tensions recently. Fleckenstein then talks about the possibility that we are experiencing a bubble in the financial markets and the role that central banks, trading algorithms and passive investment vehicles play in this context, all from a historical and economic perspective, elucidating situations of distortion in asset prices. On the possibility of a crash, Bill comments on Fed interventions, the impact of monetary policy on the market and what may be the catalyst for a strong correction, as well as aspects of the current scenario that are unprecedented in history and thus create more uncertainties. Now is a good time to be shorting stocks? Fleckenstein, who has been very successful in the past with a short only fund, explains his point of view about being short at the moment and justifies, based on his perceptions of current market conditions, the valuations and prices observed. Bill also talks about investing in gold and other precious metals, as well as gold mining, in contrast to other asset classes such as bonds and currencies, considering all the factors hitherto exposed. As for the US-China trade war, Fleckenstein discusses his views on the issue and his expectations of a resolution for the problem. He also talks about the way Trump and next year's US elections might impact those obstacles. Bill concludes with an analysis of risks that are not being properly priced by the market.
35 minutes | 2 years ago
Podcast #18: Chat with Brandon Munro - WNA Symposium
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a listed company on the Australian Stock Exchange, ASX, focused on uranium mining and development in Namibia. Brandon, who has participated in L2 Capital Podcasts #05 and #14, served on two working groups at the 2019 WNA (World Nuclear Association), Demand (as Chair) and Uranium Supply and Secondary Supply. Munro starts discussing the impact that this weekend’s attack on Saudi Arabia could have on the energy market, particularly in relation to uranium and nuclear power as alternatives. He analyses the situation with short and long-term considerations, highlights the potential effects on investors and equity traders, and ponders the repercussions that these attacks could have on Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer and also an oil producer, and the local currency, the Tenge. Brandon then comments on the relevance of the WNA Symposium, held this year on September 11th/12th in London, for the industry and the release of the Nuclear Fuel Report. This publication, which is released every two years and has different industry participants in its preparation, analyses every aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle, from uranium exploration (U3O8), conversion to UF6, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and secondary sources. This report, which draws projections for the period from 2019 to 2040, has three scenarios, a reference one, one optimistic and the other pessimistic. Brandon discusses what the assumptions are for each of these scenarios and points out that in all scenarios there is a growth in demand, reaching 3.5% per year in the optimistic projections. In addition to assessing the likelihood that the optimistic scenario will materialize, he also comments on government policy initiatives that may be even more positive than previously estimated, citing, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Munro, who has been attending the WNA Symposium since 2010, talks about his perception of the mood and feeling of the different participants in contrast to those of previous editions. Although the report does not discuss price-related aspects, discussions pointed to a consensus on both sides, from buyers and sellers, that prices need to rise to adjust to the reality of growing demand. Brandon also comments on the possible outcome of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group, currently under way in the US and the start of a new contracting cycle, events that may be significant for the industry. He also discusses Cameco's need for purchasing at least 10M lbs in the spot market and the prospects for the price of uranium going forward. Munro also brings to us some news about Bannerman Resources, such as the listing of the company's shares on the US OTC market, which will be traded under the ticker BNNLF. To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website! The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise. Follow us on social media: Twitter Linkedin Youtube
21 minutes | 2 years ago
Podcast #17: Chat with Prof. Gerry Thomas – Nuclear Power
In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Professor Gerry Thomas, a famous pharmacologist with a PhD in Pathology. She is a professor of nuclear pathology at Imperial College in London and an active researcher in the field of molecular pathology of cancer. Professor Thomas, who was at first against nuclear power but changed her mind as her research went on, debunks some myths and untruths that revolve around the subject. The professor begins by discussing the reasons why people fear nuclear radiation too much, including psychological, historical and contextual aspects. Then she talks about the health risks that different radiation doses can pose and how we expose ourselves to it. Professor Gerry Thomas ponders how lifestyle and longevity have led to increased cancer occurrences and how these factors relate to the disease compared to radiation exposure. The Chernobyl accident, in vogue now due to the production of an HBO series, is discussed in detail by the professor, who studied the subject thoroughly and conducted research on many different groups exposed to radiation - and how the radiation affected each group. She comments that the knowledge gained from studying the event led her to change her mind and to defend nuclear energy as a safe alternative. Fire helicopter pilots, rescuers and local residents, for example, are groups that have been hit differently by radiation. Professor Gerry Thomas talks about the statistics, the occurrence or not of cancer associated with nuclear radiation and the severity of each case. The latest nuclear incident happened in Fukushima, Japan, and it was addressed by the researcher who comments on deaths caused by the tsunami and the evacuation process, and discusses the effects of radiation on the population. Professor Gerry Thomas draws a parallel between the two iconic accidents in terms of radiation level, contagiousness, how they both affected the population, and the immediate and long-term consequences. What to do in case of a nuclear accident? Professor Thomas gives tips on how to behave in this situation and the tips will surprise many people. They certainly contradict, in part, popular knowledge, but they can make all the difference to the chances of survival and health preservation. Access to: Oxford Martin Restatement 5: A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning the health effects of low-level ionizing radiation To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website! The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.
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