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25 minutes | Sep 28, 2010
Five Points Episode 3 – Nominations Politics
In this episode, I discuss the congressional politics of the court vacancy. Here are the relevant links from each point. Point #1- There’s no chance a Justice won’t be confirmed if there are 50 votes for the justice. You almost certainly can’t stop this procedurally if you are the Democrats. James Wallner discussing the procedures for confirming a judicial nomination. My tweetstorm on the Senate rules regarding the requirement of holding an impeachment trial. My tweetstorm on the problems with denying a quorum. My tweetstorm on shaping understandings rather than preventing actions. Point #2 – And there’s almost certainly going to be 50 votes. Electorally vulnerable Senators just aren’t going to break with the party here. My old post on how opinion polls about policy don’t translate to votes. Point #3 – Parties don’t simply have a goal of maximizing their seats in Congress. Anthony Downs’ theory of party competition. Point #4 – Hardball politics is both new and not new. Josh Chafetz’s on unprecedented things in judicial nominations. Me on hardball politics and what’s new and not new. Mark Tushnet on Constitutional hardball. Francis Lee on insecure majorities and party competition. Matt Green on hardball politics in Congress, then and now. The Washington Post Op-ed from seven freshmen Democrats. Point #5 – Democratic hardball retaliation is not a certainty. Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias recent podcast on the changing Senate. Joseph Fishkin and David Pozen on asymmetric constitutional hardball. Me on constitutional hardball and statehood.
30 minutes | Sep 27, 2010
Five Points About Impeachment
In this episode, I discuss the politics of impeachment. Here are the relevant links from each point. Point #1- The Constitution is clear about impeachment, but not specific. My review of Josh Chafetz’s book, Congress’s Constitution. James Wallner discussing conflict on Ezra Klein’s podcast. CRS report on impeachment and removal. Bob Bauer on whether there need be a Senate trial. Henry Olson on McConnell controlling a trial. Point #2 – Impeachment is thoroughly political, and takes place in the public sphere of opinion, which is both an input and output. Ariel Edwards-Levy is the person to follow for polling info on impeachment. Dubious polls about hypothetical scenarios? Me on why Congress doesn’t always “do the right thing.” Dave Hopkins on the impact of impeachments on public opinion. Point #3 – The groups to watch are the moderate House Dems, moderate House Republicans, and Senate Republicans. Sarah Binder’s great charts of House Dems. Some GOP Senators are very quiet. Jonathan Bernstein sees a slight shift in GOP Senate opinion. Point #4 – Elite political opinion, especially among elected officials moves in cascades. Lee Drutman’s Vox article on cascades. The Washington Post Op-ed from seven freshmen Democrats. Point #5 – We don’t know where any of this is going. Too much certainty, like this David Brooks column.
30 minutes | Aug 2, 2010
Five Points Podcast: Episode #1
It’s August recess! In this episode, I discuss the congressional agenda for the 116th Congress, and what has been accomplished so far, and what we should expect between now and the 2020 elections. Some relevant links to things I discuss in the episode: CRS primer on the BCA caps. House and Senate roll call votes on the budget deal passed this week. Tim Alberta’s profile of Congressman Will Hurd. Lee Drutman on why it sucks to be a member of congress these days. My recent tweetstorm on the implications of it sucking to a member.
7 minutes | Jul 25, 2010
Five Points Podcast: Episode Zero
So I’m starting a podcast, as a companion to my newsletter. I’m not really sure how this is going to go, but here’s what I’m envisioning: something that is between 10 and 20 minutes long, and gives you a bunch of short, informed takes at the intersection of political science and current politics. You know, like my newsletter. The RSS feed is available now, and the podcast will be on Itunes, Spotify, and all the all rest shortly. Please take a listen, and I’d love to get your feedback on everything: content, structure, sound quality, and all the rest.
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