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Fill The Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association
72 minutes | Oct 8, 2021
Episode 10: Larry Berman, CMT, CFA
Can technical analysis complement value investing? Yes, indeed. Fundamental practitioners are often grouped into value or growth styles of investing, while within the technical community the corollary styles are momentum vs mean reversion. In Episode #10, we speak with Canada’s foremost market expert Larry Berman, CMT, CFA who shares a compelling perspective on using technical analysis tools to position his funds toward undervalued securities. Dogmatic believers in any style can consider this quote from the episode:“There is no right or wrong in what we do. It’s just how you do it. And results are results.” – Larry M. Berman, CMT, CFA Fill the Gap covers a lot of ground this month, including: •How fund managers can think about risk and objective outside the box,•Details on a multi-factor diffusion model that combines technical, fundamental, and cyclical factors•The behavioral implications of questions like “is China investable?” •Why “Thinking in Bets” is all any practitioner can do in a market of infinite uncertainties Larry gives concrete examples of how to use a multi-timeframe perspective to locate mean reversion opportunities, and explains how technical analysis can help investors avoid “value traps.” Mr. Berman appears weekly on BNN’s Berman’s Call where he blends fundamentals with expert technical analysis to help Bloomberg viewers uncover opportunities in the marketplace. He is a Co-Founder of ETF Capital Management and The Independent Investor Institute — an organization dedicated to providing unbiased education to Canadian investors. With nearly twenty-five years of investment industry experience, Larry is an accomplished money manager across the equity, commodity, foreign exchange, and fixed income markets. To better understand the concepts covered and current market commentary, we recommend reviewing the supplemental resources accompanying this episode using this link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge10
68 minutes | Sep 10, 2021
Episode 9: Chris Verrone, CMT
Consistently ranked among the top macro analysts on Wall Street in the annual All-America Research Survey by Institutional Investor magazine, Chris is known to most in this business as one of the hardest-working technical analysts on the street. Episode #9 of Fill the Gap focuses on the distillation process of Mr. Verrone, whose comprehensive and exhaustive coverage of securities markets seeks to highlight what is cogent and compelling. The sheer magnitude of his charts is impressive, but the precision of the message is what makes Chris and his team’s work so invaluable to clients. Mr. Verrone is a partner of Strategas and is the head of the Firm’s Technical Strategy & Macro Research team. His regularly-published research highlights actionable investment opportunities across the equity, commodity, foreign exchange, and fixed income markets. Whether you are a publishing analyst, a portfolio manager, or an enthusiast of markets, Chris’s insights will help you develop your own method for separating signal from noise. Learn why – despite all of the datasets, geopolitical information, and fundamental narratives available – price is the final arbiter of investment decisions. To better understand the concepts covered and current market commentary, we recommend reviewing the supplemental resources accompanying this episode using this link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge9
50 minutes | Aug 6, 2021
Episode 8: Pamela Yoon, CMT
The August episode of Fill the Gap shines a light on the vitality of technical analysis not often on display in broader financial media. Learn how client advisors use technical analysis to improve portfolio risk management, strengthen the investment process and supplement client education in this engaging conversation with Pamela Yoon, CMT, CIM, Vice-President & Portfolio Manager at RBC Dominion Securities in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. An investment management veteran with 28 years of experience, Pam has guided a wide range of investors through many bull and bear markets. We discuss her process in detail to better understand how she manages concentrated, high-conviction global portfolios, while always controlling risk . As a tactical portfolio manager, Pam blends a unique mix of technical tools and analytical methods into her process. The conversation also touches on how cognitive neuroscience literature relates directly to the contrarian positioning often required by disciplined active managers who respond to the evidence of market price. To see Pam’s favorite chart that appears in every new client meeting, and learn more about this month’s guest, we recommend reviewing the supplemental resources accompanying this episode using this link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge8.
79 minutes | Jul 9, 2021
Episode 7: Andreas Clenow, CMT
Chief Investment Officer of Zurich-based Acies Asset Management, critically acclaimed author, and systematic trend-following expert Andreas Clenow, CMT brings decades of asset management experience to the podcast this month. Episode #7 of Fill the Gap focuses on the process and precision of strategy development and so much more. Challenging the very definitions of commonly held terms in the investment industry, Andreas brought wit and candor to this interview while engaging honestly with the debate around systematic vs discretionary money management. We encourage all of our listeners to check their assumptions as Andreas helped define these approaches through terms such as mechanical and unsupervised. Digging into the common pitfalls of the business, Andreas spoke authentically about lessons he has learned personally as a trader, fund manager, strategy developer, and allocator of hedge funds across all asset classes. Perhaps most important for listeners this month is the concept that managers will inevitably find periods where their strategy is out of style with the market, but as Andreas says “You can lose money by following your rules, or by breaking your rules. One is just much easier to explain to investors.” A lifelong learner and investigator of markets, Andreas is forever exploring new concepts and approaches. Have you ever built a trading strategy completely void of historical price data? Want to better understand the commercial business of trading strategies as product development? Longing to read a novelized account of the dark underbelly of Swiss financiers? We explore all of this and more with Andreas Clenow, CMT in episode #7 of Fill the Gap! To better understand the concepts covered, we recommend reviewing the supplemental resources accompanying this episode using this link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge7
65 minutes | Jun 11, 2021
Episode 6: Ralph Acampora, CMT
The Godfather of Technical Analysis, Ralph Acampora, CMT joins Fill the Gap for a conversation about the history of markets, and market technicians. As the co-founder of the “MTA” in the late 1960s, Ralph’s passion for the discipline of technical market analysis has not waned a bit in his 50-year career on Wall Street. Discussing long-term secular market trends and periods of extended market expansion, Ralph shares that we may be in a fifth “Mega Market” cycle. Comparing historical periods of great economic expansion, Ralph coined the term to describe post-war market rallies in his book “The Fourth Mega Market” which he penned in the 1990s. As the world slowly begins to emerge from the COVID pandemic, the massive injection of funding for research to fight the virus will likely be commercialized in the period ahead, helping extend a global bull market over the coming years. Ralph opens up about his lifelong passion for historical study, his experience computing indicators and plotting charts by hand in the windowless “War Rooms” of the 1960s and 70s, and gaining direct advice from veteran technical analysts such as Ralph Rotnem and Ken Ward in his early career. These were the giants upon whose shoulders the technical community was built. Ralph references his personal Chart Museum, as well as other moments when the CMT Association library played a key role in expanding global finance knowledge. Ralph’s riveting stories about his accidental start in finance, as well as the contributions he’s made to the discipline of technical analysis over the last five decades, provide critical insight and context for market technicians operating in today’s digital-first environment. To better understand the concepts he references, we recommend you review the supplemental resources accompanying this episode using this link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge6
79 minutes | May 7, 2021
Episode 5: Frank Teixeira, CMT, CFA
Partner, Portfolio Manager, and Director of Technical Research at Wellington Management for over 20 years, Frank Teixeira brings his unmatched insight to addressing what it takes to navigate institutional pools of capital through multiple market cycles. Episode #5 of Fill the Gap delivers a first-hand account of the often-opaque world of professional money management. Exploring the difference between the emotional “pain management” that many investors practice, and a repeatable process of risk management, Frank shares personal successes and challenges that are at times surprising, but always refreshingly candid and instructive . Without the theoretical jargon of cognitive behavior or trading psychology, listeners will hear the visceral account of how we as investors learn lessons – good or bad – from every experience in the markets. “Be aware of what lesson you are learning” advises Frank, and remove words like “regret” from the lexicon. For veteran asset managers who have the passion to continue refining their process, or anyone considering a career in finance, this episode of Fill the Gap provides essential insight into the discipline of trend-following and momentum investing. This podcast features several charts which reflect Frank’s work, referenced in the course of conversation. To better understand the concepts covered, we recommend you download the supplemental chart resources using this link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge5
78 minutes | Apr 9, 2021
Episode 4: Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA
As the discipline of technical analysis has evolved so have the practitioners. Episode #4 of Fill the Gap features one of Wall Street’s current icons of market research – Jeff deGraaf, CMT, CFA who is the founder and Chairman of Renaissance Macro Research LLC. In this interview, Jeff dives deep into the quantifiable data-driven approach he and the RenMac team leverage towards understanding markets. Jeff reveals some of the spurious pitfalls of data science, how RenMac separates signal from noise, and why their team always returns to price before making any investment recommendation. Jeff has been one of Wall Street’s most influential macro-based analysts over the last 20-years, consistently ranked by I.I. magazine since 2002, and a member of Institutional Investor’s exclusive Research Hall of Fame. Prior to founding RenMac, Jeff cut his teeth at Merrill Lynch in the 1990s, then Lehman Brothers for 10 years where he served on the firm’s investment policy committee as a Managing Director. In early 2007, Jeff moved to ISI as an Executive Managing Director, also serving on the firm’s management committee and heading the firm’s investment policy committee. This podcast refers to several important charts which reflect the work of Jeff’s team. To better understand the concepts covered it is recommended that you download the chart pack using this link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge4If you’d like to go deeper there are several video clips to help guide your experience using the same link: go.cmtassociation.org/ftge4
52 minutes | Mar 5, 2021
Episode 3: Walter Deemer, CMT
As exchanges handle nearly 17 billion shares a day, the VIX remains elevated and intermittently spikes, market breadth surges to include cyclical sectors and small-cap stocks, and the S&P maintains a choppy advance all within 5% of all-time highs, Walter Deemer shares his current and historical view over more than 50 years on Wall St. on the latest installment of Fill the Gap. Walter’s endless wit was perhaps perfected in the crucible of Wall St. institutions such as Bob Farrell’s market research group at Merrill Lynch, Jerry Tsai’s Manhattan Fund through the “go-go” years, at Putnam Investments in Boston or during the nearly 40 years he spent advising institutional money managers as an independent technical analyst. As we investors attempt to navigate the markets during a period of excessive speculation in 2021, Walter Deemer’s perspective is invaluable. Listen for the laughs and the lessons as Walter discusses what has changed about market breadth signals, what follows periods of excessive speculation, the emotional state required of investors, and his contributions as a founding member and past president of the CMT Association.
62 minutes | Feb 5, 2021
Episode 2: Louise Yamada, CMT
Perhaps one of the most inspiring entrances into the world of Wall St., Louise Yamada, CMT joins Fill the Gap for a riveting discussion of macro trends as market volatility peaks and we witness the madness of crowds.In this fascinating episode, hosts Tyler Wood and David Lundgren chat with Louise about her incredible career at Smith Barney (Citigroup) working with Alan Shaw, CMT, Ralph Acampora, CMT and many others, as well as the past 15 years directing her own research firm, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors (LYA). Louise discusses the major themes that have shaped her invaluable research for clients over multiple cycles, including the real inflation not captured by current measurements and the sensitivity of various sectors and industry groups to the effects of inflation. With a global lens for secular trends, Louise offers insights on the relative performance breakout of Emerging Markets equities and the specific impacts of implementing next generation technology in frontier and developing economies. Reviewing Louise’s prescient book Market Magic, this episode delves into the unique insights taken from long-term trend analysis, demographic impacts, and historical corollaries. Listeners will even get a lesson in the natural laws of physics that apply to the world economy. Get to know a perennial leader in the Institutional Investor polls, the CMT Association’s Lifetime Achievement recipient of 2016, and a truly gifted market analyst – Louise Yamada, CMT.
71 minutes | Jan 8, 2021
Episode 1: Robert J. Farrell
In Fill the Gap's inaugural episode, hosts Tyler Wood and David Lundgren chat with guest Robert J. Farrell about his incredible career touching on diverse influences including Graham and Dodd, William Dunkak, and the myriad of talented analysts who joined his team at Merrill Lynch. Bob discusses the circuitous path that shaped his approach to markets, but also the environment that led to the formation of the Market Technicians Association (CMT Association) and his stewardship as the first President. Digging deeper into the process and tools of Bob’s analysis, he discusses that despite how much markets have changed structurally in his 60+ years on the street, the discipline of technical analysis as it pertains to understanding the behavior of the market and the objectivity to take a contrarian view still leads to better investment decisions. Bob provides key insights on historical corollaries that have fallen apart, elements of market data that no longer provide the signal they once did, and the personal attributes that lead to a successful career in the investment business.
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