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PFF Fantasy Football Podcast with Ian Hartitz
15 minutes | Aug 1, 2021
Fantasy Files: Is Aaron Jones worthy of top-five treatment?
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down Aaron Jones' fantasy value ahead of next season. Jones has always been a great professional running back; the only 'problem' people have had with him is the at-time mundane usage. Good news: Jamaal Williams took his talent to Detroit, meaning Jones could finally see the sort of high-end receiving role that we know he's capable of filling. Conversation continues with a look at A.J. Dillon's role in this 2021 offense before Ian concludes the podcast with his specific ranks for both backs. 00:00 - 01:20 Intro 01:20 - 04:00 Aaron Jones SZN 04:00 - 09:45 Aaron Jones’ path to Fantasy superstar 09:45 - 11:00 Ranking Aaron Jones this season 11:00 - 13:00 Mid to late round upside picks 13:00 - 14:47 Outro
15 minutes | Jul 31, 2021
Fantasy Files: Could both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt ball out again in 2021?
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt's fantasy value ahead of next season. The NFL's single-best backfield, both Chubb and Hunt rank highly as rushers, while the latter back has clearly been the better receiver over the course of their respective careers. This was essentially how the Browns rotated their backs in 2020: Chubb took most of the neutral situation and early-down work, while Hunt was almost always on the field for two-minute drills as well as on third downs. Ultimately, Ian is fine taking a bit of a leap of faith in the volume department when it's on two talented backs like this in an A+ offensive environment. The podcast concludes with Ian's specific ranking for both backs. 00:00 - 01:40 Intro 01:40 - 03:40 League’s best backfield 03:40 - 06:10 More touches and targets for Chubb 06:10 - 10:00 Breakdown of touches for the RBs 10:00 - 14:00 Ranks for the RBs 14:00 - 15:13 Outro
65 minutes | Jul 30, 2021
AFC West preview
Host Ian Hartitz is joined by PFF analyst Andrew Erickson to preview the AFC West from both a fantasy and real life perspective. The guys go through every team and ask: 1.) What's the defining question facing the squad, 2.) Who is each team's most-underutilized player, 3.) Who is your favorite fantasy value pick, 4.) What wild card scenario could you see feasibly occuring, and 5.) What is your over/under pick for each team. The conversation highlights a number of fantasy studs including Darren Waller, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy and much more. The guys conclude the podcast with their favorite divisional pick when keeping the betting odds in mind.
16 minutes | Jul 30, 2021
Fantasy Files: Which skill-position players are overpriced based on their quarterback's mobility?
Host Ian Hartitz takes a look at how often mobile quarterbacks have enabled fantasy-friendly teammates and applies the findings to 2021. Moral of the story: dual-threat signal-callers are great fantasy assets, but their hit rates at enabling top-24 running backs and wide receivers fall short of expectation. There are examples, particularly those that rack up outrageous volume, but generally only the game's finest talents have overcome this issue. Ian talks about the impact of this on guys like J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders, Allen Robinson, Mark Andrews, George Kittle and more. 00:00 - 01:05 Intro 01:05 - 02:10 QB rushing projections 02:10 - 07:20 How RBs are affected by mobile QBs 07:20 - 11:00 How WRs are affected by mobile QBs 11:00 - 13:55 How TEs are affected by mobile QBs 13:55 - 15:14 Outro
61 minutes | Jul 29, 2021
10 questions with Rich Hribar, QB edition
Host Ian Hartitz is joined by Sharp Football Analysis fantasy expert Rich Hribar aka Lord Reebs for 10 questions related to the 2021 quarterback landscape. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have been the past three overall QB1s in fantasy land, and the guys see the same player chalking up another crown in 2021. There are more signal-callers with overall QB1 upside out there, and Rich believes Kyler Murray could be on the verge of a huge season if Kliff Kingsbury sharpens up just a bit. Conversation continues with breakdowns on the rising second-year quarterbacks as well as some of the less mobile veteran gunslingers around the QB1 borderline. Additional topics include: favorite rookie quarterback in re-draft, why Kirk Cousins is this year's premiere bridge option at the position, Carson Wentz vs. Sam Darnold (spoiler: no), Ryan Tannehill's standing and much more.
17 minutes | Jul 29, 2021
Fantasy Files: Draft Trey Lance for his borderline erotic second half schedule
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down Trey Lance's fantasy football value ahead of 2021. Lance checks every box we look for from a stud fantasy quarterback, especially rushing. The 49ers seem to agree, they traded three first-round picks to acquire his services after all, but the million dollar question is exactly when Jimmy Garoppolo will hit the bench. Ian believes this will be sooner rather than later due to history, the difference between how each quarterback plays and the 49ers' schedule. The podcast concludes with Ian's specific ranking for Lance. 00:00 - 01:35 Intro 01:35 - 05:05 Trey Lance’s upside 05:05 - 09:05 Jimmy G over the past three seasons 09:05 - 10:10 Second half schedule stretch for the 49ers 10:10 - 14:30 QB draft strategy 14:30 - 16:43 Outro
65 minutes | Jul 28, 2021
NFC West preview
Host Ian Hartitz is joined by PFF analyst Andrew Erickson to preview the NFC West from both a fantasy and real life perspective. The guys go through every team and ask: 1.) What's the defining question facing the squad, 2.) Who is each team's most-underutilized player, 3.) Who is your favorite fantasy value pick, 4.) What wild card scenario could you see feasibly occuring, and 5.) What is your over/under pick for each team. The conversation highlights a number of fantasy studs including Trey Lance, Chase Edmonds, George Kittle, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Darrell Henderson and much more. The guys conclude the podcast with their favorite divisional pick when keeping the betting odds in mind.
15 minutes | Jul 28, 2021
Fantasy Files: Aaron Rodgers is BACK, now what?
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down the return of Aaron Rodgers and what we should expect from him as a fantasy asset in 2021. Ian starts off by noting just how great Rodgers was in 2020. This of course steers into talk about a potential regression, because it's simply hard to be this damn good two years in a row. Ian goes through the Packers' general lack of offseason moves and potential for a slight step back across the offensive line before concluding the podcast with Rodgers' specific fantasy ranking.
16 minutes | Jul 27, 2021
Fantasy Files: Do me a favor and draft Tyler Boyd
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down the fantasy football upside of Tyler Boyd and the rest of the Bengals' wide receivers ahead of 2021. With all due respect to Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase: Boyd is the screaming value in the offense at the moment. This is due to his history as a stellar fantasy WR2 and demonstrated excellence as a WR1 with Joe Burrow under center in 2021. The presence of Chase shouldn't be seen as a negative on Boyd considering the potential for Burrow to simply play better without A.J. Green's corpse in the fold. Ultimately, Ian doesn't see anything wrong with ranking Chase and Higgins ahead of Boyd; the issue is their absurd discrepency in average draft positions. 00:00 - 00:50 Intro 00:50 - 09:00 Tyler Boyd 09:00 - 10:10 Joe Burrow 10:10 - 13:05 Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd 13:05 - 15:35 Outro
9 minutes | Jul 26, 2021
Fantasy Files: Should we buy Travis Etienne as the next great first-round rookie RB?
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down the Jacksonville Jaguars' backfield and whether or not we should buy Travis Etienne in fantasy land ahead of 2021. Make no mistake about it: Etienne is fast fast. Still, Urban Meyer's comments on the situation have been nothing short of puzzling, routinely referring to Etienne as "slash" due to the potential for him to play an awful lot of wide receiver. This is a skill Etienne possesses; just realize we don't have much evidence of him working in the slot or out wide from the Clemson days. Ian concludes the podcast with Etienne's specific rank and thoughts on James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. Taking a look at this confusing Jags backfield (0:17) Etienne will have a role in the passing game (4:51) Where the Jaguars RBs rank (6:16)
14 minutes | Jul 25, 2021
Fantasy Files: Which tight ends are basically wide receivers?
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down which tight ends should be called wide receivers based on their usage. This is an issue that started with Jimmy Graham's franchise tag back in 2014, and Greg Olsen has also brought up the issues with how tight ends are paid. Regardless: all signs point towards Anthony Firkser being a key member of the Titans' receiving room in 2021. The projections are a bit more bleak for guys like Evan Engram, Mike Gesicki, Jared Cook and more. Which TEs focus on outside route running the most? (2:46) Who are some other TEs that play outside often? (5:55)
14 minutes | Jul 24, 2021
Fantasy Files: Derrick Henry is a top-5 real life and fantasy running back
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down Derrick Henry's fantasy football value ahead of the 2021 season. You don't need Ian to tell you just how good Henry has been since entering the league, but he does so anyway. The one problem people seem to have with Henry is the idea that he'll regress after seeing so much volume, but Ian isn't buying this on account of the small sample sizes attached and reality that Henry doesn't have the most tread on his tires among fantasy's top-10 backs. Ian concludes the podcast with Henry's ranking and a note on Darrynton Evans' handcuff potential. Putting Derrick Henry into historical context (0:27) How Derrick Henry stacks up with his peers (2:20) Is regression inevitable for King Henry? (4:12) Does Henry's lack of pass game work matter (8:03) Potential handcuffs on the Titans? (10:48)
18 minutes | Jul 23, 2021
10 questions with Mike Williams
Host Ian Hartitz welcomes on Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams for 10 questions mostly related to the upcoming season. The Chargers again look loaded on paper ahead of the year, and Mike says the team's excitement level is at an all-time high. The conversation continues with thoughts on Justin Herbert's rookie season as well as how the rising second-year quarterback is more vocal in 2021. No surprise: Mike considers 50/50 balls to be 80/20 situations when they involved him and Herbert. Additional topics on the podcast include: Moss vs. Rice, if more targets are on the way in 2021, what Mike has learned from playing with Keenan Allen, if Clemson is WRU and more. What does Mike Williams expect from the Chargers in 2021? (1:46) Mike Williams on Justin Herbert (3:54) How Mike Williams plays the game (7:23) Who inspired Mike Williams (8:42) How good is teammate Keenan Allen (11:40) Is Clemson WRU? (14:17)
17 minutes | Jul 23, 2021
Fantasy Files: Derek Carr is a better real life quarterback than you think
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr's fantasy value ahead of the 2021 season. Ian is among those who have slandered Carr over the years; just realize in recent history he's been nothing other than a great real life quarterback. This is reflected by his 2020 film and analytics alike. The problem: Carr has been more sensitive to pressure than most, and the 2021 version of this offensive line seems poised to take a step back. Throw in a good, albeit not great, group of wide receivers, and you have an offense that might take a step back from their finish as the league's 10th-ranked scoring unit. Ian closes out the podcast with his final feelings on Carr's potential to take a Ryan Tannehill-esque eighth-year leap in 2021. Was last year a sign of things to come for Derek Carr (1:36) Is the Raiders' offense good enough to sustain QB1 play from Carr? (7:16) The table is not set for Carr to be overly productive in fantasy (10:04) Should you take a chance on Carr in late rounds? (12:06)
12 minutes | Jul 22, 2021
Fantasy Files: Why you should draft Kirk Cousins after landing Trey Lance or Justin Fields
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down how often offenses with multiple high-end skill-position players also enable high-end fantasy quarterbacks. The general answer: often, which leads to questions surrounding whether we're too low on Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Ryan. There are more reasonable concerns for the latter two signal-callers than the former, who truly is in a loaded offense and possesses a borderline erotic start to the season. Ian explains just how cozy Cousins' opening stretch is before explaining why he's the ideal late-round quarterback to snag while investors of Trey Lance or Justin Fields wait for the rookie to win the job. Offenses with top weapons but no QB1 (2:06) What does having elite WRs mean for QB fantasy production? (4:25) What do these findings mean for Kirk Cousins? (5:38)
69 minutes | Jul 21, 2021
AFC South Team Previews
Host Ian Hartitz is joined by PFF analyst Andrew Erickson to preview the AFC South from both a fantasy and real life perspective. The guys go through every team and ask: 1.) What's the defining question facing the squad, 2.) Who is each team's most-underutilized player, 3.) Who is your favorite fantasy value pick, 4.) What wild card scenario could you see feasibly occuring, and 5.) What is your over/under pick for each team. The conversation highlights a number of fantasy studs including Ryan Tannehill, Laviska Shenault, Jonathan Taylor, Brandin Cooks and much more. The guys conclude the podcast with projected fantasy MVPs by position as well as their favorite divisional pick when keeping the betting odds in mind. Houston Texans Fantasy Preview (2:13) Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview (15:11) Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview (31:47) Tennessee Titans Fantasy Perview (47:05) AFC South Fantasy Superlatives and Division Odds (1:04:40)
17 minutes | Jul 21, 2021
Fantasy Files: Don't discount Baker Mayfield going super saiyan in 2021
Host Ian Hartitz breaks down Baker Mayfield's fantasy football stock ahead of next season. It's been an up-and-down career for Mayfield since being selected with the No. 1 overall pick of the 2018 draft; just realize he's shown off borderline erotic arm talent and high-end fantasy upside along the way. Don't let the absence of Odell Beckham make you think this Browns offense won't be in its best state yet with anyone's idea of a true WR1 back in action. Despite Mayfield's struggles over the years, he's still performed admirably in PFF's more stable metrics: the best could very well be yet to come, particularly considering the continuity this offense possesses all around the offense. Ian closes out the podcast with a look at Mayfield's projected volume and fantasy rank. What can we learn about the 2021 Browns from last season’s team? (3:21) Positive signs for Baker’s play (6:40) All indications point to a big year for Baker (9:50) Baker’s ranking among QBs (12:18)
15 minutes | Jul 20, 2021
Emergency Pod: Ugh, Cam Akers is out for the season
Host Ian Hartitz gets himself together enough to break down the fantasy implications of Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers tearing his Achilles. The obvious beneficiary of this news: Darrell Henderson, although Ian isn't as convinced as others about his potential to immediately take over the full three-down role. This is mostly because we haven't seen Henderson afforded this opportunity during his two-year career. Still, the likelihood of Henderson working as at least the lead, if not undisputed, back in this offense is too much to rank him as anything other than a mid-tier RB2. The rest of the Rams' running backs are truly nobodies, meaning it's not a matter of if, but when, a veteran back is signed. Ian goes through some potential options and prays for Henderon's value that it's more of an early-down veteran as opposed to a scat back. What to expect from Darrell Henderson (1:23) Do any other Rams RBs have value (7:42) What FA RBs could the Rams add? (9:29)
26 minutes | Jul 20, 2021
Fantasy Files: Running backs projected for more volume than their ADP indicates
Host Ian Hartitz goes through a volume study in order to identify some of fantasy football's best values at running back. First Ian points out how historically basically any running back averaging 15 touches per game has been good to great for fantasy business. The only exceptions have been early-down plodders without a pass-game role, so Ian engineers a special expected projected fantasy opportunity formula that accounts for the difference in expected fantasy points on targets compared to rush attempts. Ian then takes these ranks and cross compares them with each running back's average draft position to determine who is overvalued and undervalued relative to their projected volume. More early-down running backs pop as players that will need to be awfully efficient in order to meet expectations, but Ian ultimately comes away with 10 running backs that sure look a lot like values where they're presently being priced. These players include: D'Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Tevin Coleman and more. Which 1st round backs might have a problem with their touches? (5:30) RBs ranked too high based on probable touches (8:55) 10 RBs what will have the ball enough (12:24)
29 minutes | Jul 19, 2021
Fantasy Files: Top values and fades against current ADP
Host Ian Hartitz breaks out his rankings to tell you his favorite values and fades against present average draft position. Things start off with a breakdown on why Ryan Fitzpatrick is flying under the radar before Ian cautions against expecting too much too soon from Trevor Lawrence. At running back Ian is buying the Zack Moss late-round hype, but again doesn't see much to love about a certain second-year Jaguars running back. Wide receiver discussion revolves around Jaylen Waddle and Adam Thielen before Ian finishes off the podcast with notes on Anthony Firkser and Evan Engram. Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a QB1 in 2021 (1:03) Trevor Lawrence is being drafted too high (3:37) Undervalued QBs: Darnold, Z. Wilson, Lance, Mayfield (5:50) Zack Moss headlines undervalued RBs (7:35) James Robinson won't repeat his 2020 season (9:35) Valuable handcuffs and likely starters are the undervalued RBs (11:26) Veterans on committees, crowded backfield RBs are being overvalued (12:51) Jaylen Waddle is being underrated at WR (14:47) Adam Thielen is being valued too highly (16:34) Underrated WR2s and targets in high-passing offenses should be drafted higher (17:38) Top options on below average or crowded offenses should be concerning (19:40) Anthony Firkser has late-round value (21:09) Evan Engram has too much competition for targets (22:18) Underrated TEs include Alie-Cox, Higbee, Everett, Trautman, Kmet (24:04) Aging TEs, Pats crowded TE room included in prime fade targets (26:20)
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