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24 minutes | Oct 5, 2021
UP 255: The Fed’s payroll path to tapering.
Friday’s U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November’s FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what’s expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and events this week.
22 minutes | Sep 22, 2021
UP 254: Fed toes tapering as other central banks stand pat.
Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday. Either economic cycles are now moving out of sync or at least one central bank has got it wrong.
29 minutes | Aug 25, 2021
UP 253: Fed tapering would mask slowing global growth
Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developments and their implications for policy in this month’s global podcast.
15 minutes | Aug 17, 2021
UP 252: RBNZ tightening in doubt as Covid clouds the global recovery
An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.
21 minutes | Aug 4, 2021
UP 251: US payrolls preview and the BoE’s QE call
Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are also in focus.
8 minutes | Jul 20, 2021
UP 250: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?
The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.
30 minutes | Jul 6, 2021
UP 249: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?
PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the ongoing disconnect.
38 minutes | Jun 16, 2021
UP 248: Central banks stick to their guns
Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.
29 minutes | Jun 1, 2021
UP 247: Demand soaring but inflation mixed; Covid reopenings uneven
Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.
27 minutes | May 19, 2021
UP 246:Inflation yet to shift monetary policy
The basic message from global central banks is holding, that inflation pressures now building will soon fade and that rate hikes are still well down the road.
27 minutes | Apr 27, 2021
UP 245: How and when to signal the policy shift
Federal Reserve communications are approaching the inflection point on when to signal the withdrawal of stimulus. For Europe, this pivot is still more distant given lagging vaccination rates and lagging economic performance.
30 minutes | Mar 23, 2021
UP 243: Status quo for Fed and SNB; 'vaccine war' for UK-EU
Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availability.
29 minutes | Mar 16, 2021
UP 242: The Fed and BoE likely to hold policy steady; vaccine issues cloud Eurozone prospects
Despite the recent rise in long rates, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England are likely to make any QE adjustments. Covid cases have been coming down and vaccination rates going up in both the US and UK, in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the outlook is becoming more uncertain.
36 minutes | Mar 4, 2021
UP 240: Inflation climbing, yields jumping, policy in question
With vaccines rolling out and Covid cases coming down, our team updates the outlook for inflation and long-term interest rates and what it may or may not mean for any changes in central bank policy.
25 minutes | Feb 23, 2021
UP 239: Inflation up, rates up; how to communicate policy change
Inflation may still be well below target but it is on the rise as are long-term interest rates. How these factors are affecting the financial markets and monetary policy and what they mean for central-bank communication strategy are points of this week's discussion.
39 minutes | Feb 16, 2021
UP 238: QE as means to control exchange rates
This week's topic is whether central banks may begin to increase or decrease QE as a means of controlling exchange rates and the related risks that such action might bring to financial market stability.
31 minutes | Feb 9, 2021
UP 237: The end of low inflation?
Inflation expectations in the financial markets are rising quickly in contrast to actual inflation measures which are still subdued.
31 minutes | Feb 3, 2021
UP 236: Regional round-up and Covid-19 vaccination rates - the new forward-looking economic recovery metric
Brian Jackson and Jeremy Hawkins pull together the latest economic trends and discuss the importance to financial markets of the relative pace of the vaccine rollout.
28 minutes | Jan 26, 2021
UP 235: Updates on the latest data and policy outlooks
Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the latest economic data from Europe and the US, including a sharp drop in UK retail indications and sharp gains for US home prices. GDP outlooks are also discussed as well as issues at play for coming central bank meetings.
29 minutes | Jan 19, 2021
UP 234: Asian data improving as Europe struggles; US labor market weak
Our duo of Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender round-up recent data and discuss the outlook for pending data and upcoming central bank announcements. Themes include weakness in the US labor market, ECB lending worries as well as the separation between assessments of current conditions and expectations for future recovery.
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