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41 minutes | Sep 30, 2022
Dollar Milkshake Theory & Specialization
We didnt come up with the dollar milkshake theory but it has played out surprisingly well. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital came up with the theory before the pandemic. It predicts a massive run-up in the dollar and capital flows into the U.S. as other countries are forced to print currency to get dollars to get the things they need. Nate then discusses the question on whether or not its better to be a specialist or a jack of all trades to build wealth. We hope you enjoy the episode.
35 minutes | Sep 23, 2022
FED Raises Rates & Diversification in Bear Markets
Want a chance to win $10,000 from a field goal kick? On October 7th Hillsdale high school is doing a raffle for one person to attempt a 40yd field goal kick. If successful the kicker will win $10,000! Get tickets by visiting Crosby Advisory, Fickes furniture, or Hillsdale high school before October 7th. In this episode, we discuss the recent FOMC meeting where the FED decided to raise interest rates by 75bp or 3/4 of one percent. We discuss the broader implications for markets. We also touch on recent news of the COO of Beyond Meat and his legal battles after allegedly assaulting somebody in a parking lot by biting of a piece of their nose. We end by discussing diversification in bear markets and how to diversify across asset classes. We hope you enjoy the episode.
54 minutes | Sep 16, 2022
Fertilizer Shortage & Dutch Farmers' Protest
In a global effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions, many countries have adopted energy policies against domestic self-interest. In Europe, the price of natural gas has gotten so expensive that fertilizer producers are not able to operate profitably, threatening the global food supply. In a related story, Netherlands farmers are mandated to cut down on fertilizer usage. These farmers have been protesting for a while and it has largely been ignored and under-reported by news outlets. We then close by discussing some recent crypto news involving the creator of Terra Luna and his possible legal troubles. We hope you enjoy the episode!
51 minutes | Sep 9, 2022
Structured Notes, Strength in the U.S. Dollar
Nate discusses structured notes and how they can fit into a diversified portfolio and provide some downside protection for conservative and aggressive investors. He also discusses two notes that are currently being offered. Derek discusses recent news about crypto regulation and the SEC as well as the outlook for FED tightening and ends with discussing the recent run-up in the USD as other currencies fall relative to the dollar. We discuss what that means for the U.S. and the globe and emerging markets in particular. We hope you enjoy the podcast!
54 minutes | Sep 2, 2022
Nate's Adventure & Student Loan Forgiveness
Nate is back from his multi-day trip to the Colorado mountains with nothing but a backpack and a fishing rod. He speaks on some of the revelations he had while hiking and what he brought back from the trip. Derek fills him in on the economic events from last week, namely the Jackson Hole summit and the announcement that the White House chose to forgive up to 20,000 student loans for specific borrowers. If you enjoy the podcast, please like and subscribe!
33 minutes | Aug 25, 2022
Marketing In A Recession
At first glance, I am willing to bet a lot of companies will cut their marketing budgets. Marketing is often viewed as an expense but let’s be real, marketing is an investment. Another way to think about this is with your investment portfolio for example. During the last six months, you may have felt the urge to sell some of your investments. But if you listen to this podcast on the regular, you’d know that the best thing to do is to leave your investments where they are. Just like marketing—when investing for the long term—you may reallocate or recalibrate your investment, but you only truly “lose” if you eliminate them. Whether B2B or B2C, your customers’ budgets are also in high demand. This is the time when attention needs to be gained, customers need to be educated, and value propositions need to get stronger.
34 minutes | Aug 19, 2022
Patience in Bear Markets & Coinbase Meets Blackrock
Nate discusses a study in patience with children and its results later in life. This applies to investors in bear markets, patience is a difficult thing to master but important for long-term success. Derek starts a discussion around recent inflation data and the story that Blackrock will begin offering a bitcoin trust to institutional investors and what that means for the core principles of bitcoin. We hope you enjoy the podcast!
43 minutes | Aug 10, 2022
Inflation Reduction Act & Thinking Slow
In this episode, we discuss inflation once again and give our thoughts on the recent legislation designed to reduce inflation. As well as recent events developing in China and Taiwan. Lastly, Nate gives his thoughts on the benefits of "thinking slow" referencing a book titled "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman and how that relates to emotions and investing. We hope you enjoy the episode!
53 minutes | Jul 29, 2022
Stocks to Watch & FED Raising Rates
Back from vacation, Nate discusses some stocks on his radar that he believes will be a great opportunity to buy and hold while receiving a dividend. He also gets in touch with his youth to discuss his recently re-kindled love for skateboarding. Derek talks about the recent news out of the White House that we are currently "not" in a recession despite traditional definitions and lastly we discuss our market outlook not mapping directly onto recent market performance and why investors might be too quick to call the bottom of this bear market. We hope you enjoy this week's episode!
29 minutes | Jul 20, 2022
Active v.s. Passive Investing
Derek is back in the studio for the first in-person podcast in a while. We discuss the pros and cons of passive vs active investing. Passive investing is a great plan long term but it can be tough during bear markets. If you know what you are doing and have the knowledge and resources to help, active investing can protect your downside during market drawdowns. We hope you enjoy it, if you like the podcast follow us on social media @crosbyadvisory and share the podcast with a friend!
44 minutes | Jul 6, 2022
More Inflation & Crypto Pain
You get what you pay for Now more than ever an investor has to understand how asset classes work within the market cycle and where you are at in the cycle. Over the years, many investors have gotten away with a passive strategy. When someone wonders why they would pay someone to manage their investments during a bull market, the answer might seem obvious on the surface. Today you might not find the answer quite so simple. You need an iron stomach if you are committed to passive investing. The most recent CPI (inflation) number was released on June 15 and we were expecting a slight decrease. Unfortunately, it was reported as 8.6% so, despite rising interest rates and quantitative tightening (watch our video explaining quantitative tightening in less than 2 minutes), inflation is still going up. This is not the news we had hoped for because the FED will keep tightening the economy and it appears the dream of a soft landing is off the table. With keeping inflation under control as the top priority, we have to consider that a recession may be on the horizon. As we reflect on where the market is at today, it begs the question as to why this was such a blind-side for the Fed? As investors, we are at a cross-road. With inflation continuing to climb and the Fed stating they don’t intend to lower interest rates until 2024, we suggest you take an informed approach to your investment strategy. You need to understand how asset classes react during different times in the cycle so you can determine the best time to make shifts. We study the market for a living and trust us, this can certainly be tricky. Crypto washout Speaking of an iron stomach, crypto investors are no stranger to the swings. Today, crypto markets are not as well regulated as the stock market and one downside is that there is no breaker in place to stop massive sell-offs. It’s important to remember that the crypto concept is still very new (relatively speaking) so the swings are somewhat expected. For example, Bitcoin was 65,000 per coin and now it’s down to 17,000 per coin (as of June 20). The upside is only the strongest cryptocurrencies will survive. When we think about the crypto swings, we can’t help but talk about price and value. Price is what you pay and value is what you get. Take Bitcoin for example, as people come into the crypto space and adopt the technology the price will go up but most investors will agree that the value isn’t the price. The value is the technology. Diversification – an example We recently had a raving endorsement to remind us why the modern portfolio needs at least 5 different asset classes. This was the scenario: A life event occurs where a family member needs to borrow some money This person needed to pull 10s of thousands of dollars out of their investment account We were able to review their commodity position and found that they had plenty of money (triple what they needed) in assets sitting at a high point We were able to execute this and not impact their overall account If you build a portfolio like that there will be times when you’ll look foolish – because you have uncorrelated assets some will act as an anchor but you’ll have more consistency overall. In closing … some advice Just because something looks like a deal doesn’t mean it is There really is no difference between being early or being late The mid-term trend is likely down Hold your cash, there will be opportunities soon Times will be good again and opportunities will come but for now, stay steady and remember your goals.
35 minutes | Jun 27, 2022
Some Positive News
We feel we have only brought negative news in the past few episodes so we wanted to switch up the tone. We only wanted to share positive news and information during this episode. We discuss positive news in our personal lives and some things we are looking forward to, hopefully, the episode is viewed as a nice change of pace from all of the negativity constantly surrounding us.
46 minutes | Jun 16, 2022
How to Manage Risk in a Bear Market?
As the glory days of free money come to an end (for now), we are fielding a lot of questions about how to protect investments in a down market. Since January, we’ve watched a steady decline, and even if you aren’t heavily invested in the stock market, you are being hit hard at the gas pump, in the grocery store, wherever you go – you name it, it’s unavoidable! Today we’re talking about your 401k investment strategy and giving tips for riding out a bear market Target date funds have been getting some press lately thanks to a recent study by Bank of America. Unfortunately for target-date funds, this study is poking some holes in the fundamental way these funds operate. Bottom line, as an investor you should 1. know if your 401k uses target-date funds and 2. give us a call so we can help you analyze performance.
39 minutes | Jun 9, 2022
A New Place for Short-Term Cash, World Economic Forum, Solana Collapse
For those of you that listen to the podcast (vs just reading our summaries), notice anything new this week? Maybe the intro music! We thought it was time to change it up a little – hope you like it! Today we’re sharing predictions from the recent World Economic Forum, Derek gives the latest updates on Crypto, and Nate discusses an interesting new investment opportunity.
27 minutes | Jun 2, 2022
Social Media Wisdom w/ Malery Sloan
Special Guest Carly Snyder and Malery Sloan take over this week to give insight on social media and marketing. Both have extensive experience in advising clients and Malery brings particular expertise in the realm of social media. We thank her for joining us today and look forward to the next episode.
36 minutes | May 19, 2022
Updates from the FED & Evaluating a Company's Debt
Have you ever watched something happen and it almost feels like it’s in slow motion? You know what’s going to happen but there’s really nothing you can do to change the course. Sound familiar? It’s exactly how we feel when it comes to the market and listening to the most recent earnings reports from major retailers was yet another example of the bear market at work. In the most recent Fed meeting, the message was clear – continue with the status quo. As we watch the controlled demolition of the stock market transpire, we can’t help but remind ourselves that this was the plan. The Fed has stated they want to tame inflation by slowing down the economy through interest rate increases. The tone has changed from the last time the Fed met, however, with a new emphasis on raising interest rates until prices stabilize to 2% of inflation or until something breaks.
43 minutes | May 5, 2022
The Lightning Network, How to Value Bank Stocks?
In this week’s podcast, we introduce listeners to the Lightning Network – what is it and why is it important to Bitcoin owners. Nate & Derek also give tips for investors that are evaluating banks. The lightning network is a second layer of technology on top of Bitcoin. It was developed in 2015 to try and solve the major critiques of Bitcoin – it has 10-minute transaction times and lacked global transactional reach. An easy way to think about the role the lightning network plays is the example of cash and gold. The primary goal of cash was to improve the monetary system and make it easier to transact between people and businesses. Sounds a lot like the role banks play – the banks are there to validate the transactions and make sure the money is exchanged. Most stocks are evaluated using PE ratios but we caution you to use those same criteria for banks – here’s why! Earnings statements! Banks make money by lending and that is largely influenced by interest rates. They also prepare for losses – meaning they evaluate if they feel confident whether people can / cannot pay loans back. Both of those reasons can lead to a sudden increase or decrease in earnings, depending on what is happening in the market.
44 minutes | Apr 28, 2022
What is Risk, Netflix Gets Crushed, Elon Buys Twitter
Today we talk about famous investor Bill Ackman and his 400M dollar loss on Netflix's stock. We also discuss Elon's purchase of Twitter for $44B and Nate gives his thoughts on what is actually meant by "risk". Lastly, we talk about what it would take to give us a breather in a tough market.
32 minutes | Apr 21, 2022
Investing 101 Revisited
Nate, Derek, and Macy are discussing questions that new investors are likely to ask and we give our different perspectives. We recorded Investing 101 in 2020 but felt we could go even more fundamental with the questions. We hope you learn something and enjoy the podcast.
35 minutes | Apr 14, 2022
Evaluating Disney as a Brand w/ Carly Snyder
Carly is back on the podcast to discuss her recent trip to Disney World. On the trip, Nate couldn't help but look at all the small details of branding that are scattered across the park. We discuss Disney as a brand, and how customers come to form opinions about the quality of a product or service.
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