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China in the World
63 minutes | Jul 9, 2021
Episode 166: Kim Jong-un’s Strategy for Survival with David Shin
Leading a largely closed-off society and rarely engaging with foreign leaders, Kim Jong-un is one of the most misunderstood leaders in the world. Is Kim a rational actor? Does he have a long-term strategy for North Korea? What resources does Kim have at his disposal and how does he achieve his objectives? David Shin’s new book, Kim Jong-un's Strategy for Survival: A Method to Madness, provides answers to these questions and more. The book focuses on four cases that reveal North Korea’s survival strategy: the 2013 nuclear crisis, the 2015 landmine incident, the 2017 nuclear crisis, and the 2018 charm offensive. Dr. Shin argues that Kim Jong-un is far from a madman and, like the two Kims before him, has consistently been underestimated. In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with David Shin, Associate Professor and Deputy Chair of the National Intelligence University (NIU), about his new book, Kim Jong-un's Strategy for Survival: A Method to Madness. The discussion covers Kim Jong-un’s strategy and tactics in 2017 and 2018, gauges the future of US-DPRK relations, and applies the book’s finding to assess the Biden administration’s early approach toward North Korea.
59 minutes | Jun 18, 2021
Episode 165: Live Recording Replay: How Will the EU Navigate U.S.-China Tensions?
Over the past few years, Europe and the United States have each approached China’s rise differently. Washington has moved to reduce its economic reliance on Beijing while castigating its increasingly assertive global stance. Brussels, on the other hand, has tried to insulate its business ties with China from its concerns about Chinese policies and ambitions. Europe and China jointly proposed the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), while German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuel Macron strived to keep the continent’s relations with Beijing on solid footing. Recently, however, it appears as though Europe has shifted course to align elements of its China strategy more closely with those of the United States. The CAI has been shelved, and France and Germany have announced plans to play a larger role in the South China Sea disputes. How will Europe manage its relationship with Beijing going forward? And how should Europe deal with worsening U.S.-China relations? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, and Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, on the trajectory of U.S.-EU-China relations. This panel is the fifth of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2020-2021 and is also available to be watched online.
63 minutes | Jun 4, 2021
Episode 164: Live Recording Replay: What Lies Ahead for China in the Middle East
Conflict and instability in the Middle East show no signs of abating. Recent jousting between Israeli and Palestinian forces, the ongoing war in Yemen, and continued Saudi Arabia-Iran friction threaten to further destabilize the region. Though President Biden is attempting to restore coherence in the U.S. approach to the Middle East, his administration remains focused on responding to the pandemic domestically and on countering China in the international arena. Beijing, for its part, appears intent on playing a larger role in Middle Eastern affairs. It continues to foster stronger ties with regional countries through its Belt and Road Initiative and bilateral cooperation agreements, such as the twenty-five-year investment deal with Iran. How will China’s growing influence in the region affect the interests of the United States and other actors?During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Program, and He Wenping, a professor at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This panel is the fourth of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2020-2021 and is also available to be watched online.
38 minutes | May 20, 2021
Episode 163: Live Recording Replay: Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition
The Biden administration has an opportunity to recalibrate U.S. China policy to better reflect current realities. Has the administration been effective in laying the groundwork for strategic competition with China? How can Washington maintain a competitive relationship with Beijing while minimizing the risk of conflict? What did the U.S.-China Anchorage summit signal about the trajectory of U.S.-China relations? On this joint episode of the China in the World podcast and Polaris-Live, Paul Haenle joined Sarwar Kashmeri to discuss U.S.-China relations 100 days into the Biden administration. The discussion was hosted by Polaris-Live, in conjunction with the Foreign Policy Association of New York, and can be viewed online.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ59Nf_inhA&ab_channel=SarwarKashmeri
62 minutes | May 14, 2021
Episode 162: Live Recording Replay: China-Russia Relations at the Dawn of the Biden Era
While U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations have steadily deteriorated, China-Russia cooperation has grown in its stead. On the heels of the contentious U.S.-China Alaska summit, Chinese and Russian foreign ministers met in Guilin to discuss bilateral cooperation on a range of issues and even published a joint statement promoting a shared vision for global governance. However, it is unclear to what extent Russian and Chinese interests will continue to converge. Although both nations have found a common adversary in the United States, any divergence of Russian or Chinese interests could create roadblocks to the two countries’ warming relations. Given China’s increasing economic and political clout, how will Russia manage the relationship in a way that concurrently maintains cooperation with China and protects its own national interests? Will China continue to view Russia as a security and economic partner? And how does the United States view and approach strong China-Russia ties?During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Andrew Weiss, James Family Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, Guan Guihai, associate professor at and executive vice president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, and Vita Spivak, analyst at Control Risks, a global consulting firm, on recent developments in China-Russia relations and their implications for the United States. This panel was hosted as the third of the Carnegie Global Dialogue Series 2020-2021 and is also available to be watched online.
41 minutes | Apr 29, 2021
Episode 161: What Has Biden Achieved in 100 Days?
As President Biden wraps up his first 100 days in office, there remain significant questions surrounding the future of U.S.-China ties. How has the bilateral relationship changed? Will the Biden administration maintain the Trump administration’s policy of strategic competition? How has Beijing responded so far? On this joint episode of the China in the World podcast and AmCham Shanghai’s China Voices podcast, Paul Haenle joined Kate Magill to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations after Biden’s first 100 days. For more in-depth analysis on Biden’s 100 days, be sure to check out Haenle’s recently published piece “Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition.” Link: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/04/27/setting-table-for-u.s.-china-strategic-competition-pub-84378
23 minutes | Jan 21, 2021
Episode 160: Part 2: Four Principles to Guide U.S. Policy Toward China
As the U.S.-China relationship becomes more competitive, how should the Biden administration approach ties with Beijing? What concepts should guide Washington’s China policy? In part two of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Ali Wyne, senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s Global Macro practice, about four principles the administration should follow to formulate a sustainable U.S. strategy toward China.
49 minutes | Jan 6, 2021
Episode 159: Part 1: Four Principles to Guide U.S. Policy Toward China
As the U.S.-China relationship becomes more competitive, how should the Biden administration approach ties with Beijing? What concepts should guide Washington’s China policy? In part one of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Ali Wyne, senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro practice, about four principles the administration should follow to formulate a sustainable U.S. strategy toward China.
63 minutes | Dec 10, 2020
Episode 158: Live Recording: What's Next for China-India Relations – A Look Ahead
Last year’s Mamallapuram summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggested the historically tense China-India relationship was warming considerably. 2020, however, has been a markedly difficult year for the two countries. The ongoing Himalayan border conflict has plunged bilateral ties into crisis, and New Delhi has taken steps to limit Chinese investment into India and banned hundreds of Chinese mobile applications. While the border situation has stabilized over the past couple months, the future of China-India relations remains uncertain. What has driven the relationship’s deterioration, and is there any chance the two countries can get back on track? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Han Hua, associate professor at Peking University, about the trajectory of China-India ties and the prospect for improved relations between Asia’s two largest countries.
61 minutes | Dec 3, 2020
Episode 157: Live Recording Replay: U.S.-China Relations Under Biden – A Look Ahead
While the recent election of Joe Biden likely signals a raft of domestic political changes, its impact on U.S.-China relations remains unclear. The Trump administration has remolded the relationship, which is now defined by confrontations over economic practices, emerging technologies, and security. There is also growing bipartisan support for pursuing a tougher approach to China, and the Justice, State, and Defense departments are increasingly prioritizing new initiatives to push back on Beijing. Will Biden maintain the confrontational tone and policies of his predecessor? Or will he devise an entirely different posture toward Beijing? The answers to these questions will not only have critical consequences for the two countries in question, but for the broader international community as well. During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University, on how the Biden administration might approach China, as well as how Beijing is gearing up for the new U.S. president.
31 minutes | Nov 15, 2020
Paul Haenle on The Future of U.S.-China Relations
President-elect Joe Biden will enter the White House with challenging domestic and foreign policy agendas. Where does China rank on the Biden administration’s priority list? How is Beijing likely to respond to Biden’s election, and what are the implications for U.S. policy in the Asia-Pacific? On this collaborative episode of the China in the World podcast and the Carnegie Endowment’s The World Unpacked podcast, Paul Haenle joined Laura Lucas Magnuson, Carnegie's vice president for communications and strategy, to discuss the future of U.S.-China relations.
63 minutes | Nov 2, 2020
Live Recording Replay: The Korean Peninsula After the U.S. Elections
The result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election will directly impact how the United States, China, and Russia approach issues on the Korean Peninsula. How would a second Trump or first Biden administration deal with North Korea? How do policymakers in Beijing and Moscow evaluate their relations with Pyongyang? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Carnegie experts Alexander Gabuev and Tong Zhao about the outlook for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the role of the United States, China, and Russia.
45 minutes | Sep 29, 2020
Pulling U.S.-China Relations Back from the Brink
Why has the coronavirus crisis evolved into a contest of systems between the United States and China? What is driving China’s “wolf warriors?” Can Washington and Beijing construct more effective official dialogue mechanisms to address bilateral problems? On this episode, Paul Haenle and Zha Daojiong, professor of international political economy at Peking University, have a wide-ranging discussion on U.S.-China relations. Haenle and Zha analyze the many factors driving a downward spiral in U.S.-China relations and the outlook for bilateral ties ahead of the U.S. presidential election. They end the discussion reflecting on steps that both Washington and Beijing should take to pull the relationship back from the brink.
30 minutes | Sep 8, 2020
Understanding the Role of Ideology in U.S.-China Relations
U.S.-China relations are more adversarial than at any time in decades. The risk of confrontation or conflict has significantly increased, and domestic politics in both countries have exacerbated tensions. What role does ideology play in the ongoing deterioration of the relationship, and how will it impact future bilateral ties? In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Jie Dalei, associate professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, to discuss the role of ideology in the U.S.-China relationship and its impact on consequential bilateral issues like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and COVID-19.
43 minutes | Jun 25, 2020
China-India, John Bolton, and U.S. Presidential Elections
On June 15, a month-long border standoff between Chinese and Indian forces escalated into a bloody conflict. A week later, former National Security Advisor John Bolton released his tell-all book revealing troubling positions taken by President Trump on China. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Chen Dingding, professor of international relations at Jinan University and founding director of the Intellisia Institute, to better understand how these developments are being viewed in China and analyze their implications for the U.S.-China relationship and upcoming presidential elections.
68 minutes | May 18, 2020
Live Recording Replay: Coronavirus and the Korean Peninsula
As nations confront the pandemic, rumors of Kim Jung-un’s death and a flurry of North Korean missile tests injected even more uncertainty in the international landscape. How do views in Washington, Seoul, and Beijing differ or align on North Korea? What are the prospects for the resumption of diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang? And how do tensions on the Korean Peninsula affect Northeast Asia more broadly? Paul Haenle spoke with other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a live recording of the China in the World podcast, where they discuss the outlook for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia Pacific.
2 minutes | May 11, 2020
SPECIAL LIVE EPISODE: Coronavirus and the Korean Peninsula
Paul Haenle is hosting a special live episode of the China in the World Podcast this Friday, May 15, at 9 PM EST. Join Paul and other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a discussion on the outlook for denuclearization efforts on the Korean peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific.A link to the event can be found here: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/15/china-in-world-interactive-podcast-coronavirus-and-korean-peninsula-event-7328
42 minutes | Apr 23, 2020
U.S.-China Relations 2020: Coronavirus and Elections
China is facing growing international scrutiny due to its initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak. Countries are increasingly questioning the motives underlying Beijing’s recent international aid efforts, and there is growing concern over developments in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Hong Kong. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University, to better understand China’s perspective on recent pushback against Beijing, the implications of regional security developments, and China’s role in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
36 minutes | Apr 11, 2020
Missing in Action: U.S.-China Cooperation on Coronavirus
The coronavirus outbreak has highlighted the many issues in the U.S.–China relationship. Why can’t Washington and Beijing better coordinate a response to the pandemic, replicating their cooperative efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and 2014 Ebola outbreak? Paul Haenle spoke with Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the dynamics preventing bilateral cooperation and the implications for a post-coronavirus world.
30 minutes | Feb 4, 2020
The Erosion of the Global Arms Control Regime
The U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the expiration of the New START treaty in 2021 threaten to derail decades-long efforts to maintain an effective global arms control regime. In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, about the deterioration of global arms control institutions and its effects on U.S.-China relations and regional nonproliferation efforts to contain North Korea and Iran's nuclear ambitions.Weitz argued that the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty stemmed from Russia’s repeated violations of the agreement and had little to do with China. Weitz said, however, that Beijing must be included in any new negotiations despite the difficulties of implementing trilateral arms control agreements. Furthermore, Weitz highlighted Beijing’s crucial role in either resuscitating the crumbling Iran nuclear agreement or negotiating a new one. On North Korea, Weitz said a lack of forward momentum in diplomacy could lead to increased tensions with Pyongyang. Though measured sanctions relief might be necessary to prevent a return to the brinksmanship of 2017, Weitz cautioned against any such actions that do not include safeguards that prevent Pyongyang from reneging on its commitments.
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