About This Show
Political campaigns and politics have become more crazy, confusing and polarizing than ever before. What are political candidates and campaigns really thinking? Listen to an insightful and engaging discussion each week from the senior staff of Magellan Strategies. Each week veteran pollsters and campaign operatives David Flaherty, Courtney Gibbon and Ryan Winger talk about current events, politics, campaigns and how using voter data, technology and survey research leads to smarter politics.
Most Recent Episode
EP 22: European Election Online and Phone Polling Disasters and the French Presidential Election
< 1 day ago
In this episode, we discuss recent European election polling misses and how their polling challenges are different than the polling challenges we face in United States elections. Segment 1: Recent Misses for European Election Polls Following the first presidential debate in France’s upcoming Presidential election and with the first round of voting only a month away, U.S. interest in the French election is only going to increase. HuffPost Pollster is now tracking polls for the first round of voting, showing what is likely to be a run-off between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen which Macron is projected to win easily. While the outcome of the election will certainly be worth watching to determine the true extent Europe’s populist wave, we want to take this opportunity to discuss some of the recent misses in European polling, and what we can learn from them. If the aftermath of last June’s Brexit vote (51.9% leave/48.1% Remain), a lot of British news coverage focused on whether the polls had been wrong again, suggesting that it wasn’t the first big miss for British pollsters. The first example that is generally cited is the Scottish independence referendum of 2014, which polls consistently showed to be closer than it actually was. The final vote was 55.3% opposing Scottish independence, 44.7% supporting it. Nate Silver has a good breakdown of the Scottish independence polling here. This miss was followed the